This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart 
Fullscreen These figures are flash estimates, offering an early look before more detailed breakdowns are published in December. Seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, mirroring the growth rate seen in the second quarter. For now, only these headline numbers are available; a deeper analysis of what’s driving growth—by sector or demand component—will follow with the upcoming full release.
Consumption remains the key driver of economic growth
Latest figures suggest that consumer spending continues to fuel Poland’s economic expansion. This is reflected in robust retail sales growth during the third quarter and strong service sector output in July, although service data tends to be reported with a lag. Early indicators also point to a rebound in investment, following a disappointing second quarter when investment dropped by 0.7% year-on-year.
How does Poland compare to the rest of Europe?
Poland’s GDP growth is currently among the strongest in the European Union. For several quarters now, only Spain has posted a comparable growth rate among the EU’s larger economies – a noteworthy achievement given ongoing sluggishness in Germany, Poland’s largest trading partner. The chart below presents seasonally adjusted GDP changes for Poland and other EU countries, based on preliminary Eurostat estimates.
Interactive chart Fullscreen Growth scenarios for 2025
What is Poland’s likely final GDP growth figure for 2025? This table lays out several scenarios based on possible fourth-quarter outcomes. Should quarter-on-quarter growth remain steady at 0.8% (as seen in Q3), annual GDP growth would reach 3.3%. However, forecasts point to a further acceleration in the final quarter. The outlook for the coming quarters is optimistic, especially as investment activity is expected to play a bigger role. Factors such as lower capital costs, consistently strong consumer demand, and the growing impact of National Recovery Plan (KPO) funding are all set to further boost investment-driven growth. The National Recovery Plan (KPO) is the basis for applying for funding from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which is the largest part of the Next generation EU plan.
Interactive chart Fullscreen 
Key takeaways
- Poland's GDP growth reached 3.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, the fastest since mid-2022, fueled by pandemic recovery and increased labor supply due to migration, especially Ukrainian refugees. Seasonally adjusted GDP grew 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, the same rate as Q2.
- Consumer spending is the main driver of growth, supported by strong retail sales and service sector output. Investment, which declined in Q2, shows early signs of rebound and is expected to gain importance.
- Poland's GDP growth is one of the strongest in the EU, comparable only to Spain among large economies. If Q4 growth maintains 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, annual GDP growth for 2025 would hit 3.3%, with expectations of acceleration driven by investment, supported by lower capital costs, strong consumer demand, and EU Recovery Plan funding.