Goods exports accelerate, services slow. Trade surplus in October

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Imports, by contrast, increased by 3.2% year on year. Although still expanding, this represents a modest slowdown compared with the previous month and a weaker performance than in the first months of the year.

Poland recorded its largest surplus on the goods trade account since April 2024. In October, the surplus exceeded EUR 0.5bn.

What has long been expected is now beginning to materialize – albeit gradually: an export recovery. For the time being, however, it remains selective. In its commentary on the latest figures, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) notes that the upturn is being driven primarily by consumer goods.

Sales of clothing, footwear and video-game consoles have been rising, while exports of buses continue to post strong growth. Agricultural exports have also increased, though at a slower pace than in previous months. By contrast, declines were recorded in passenger cars and automotive parts, as well as in intermediate goods, including production components.

The growth rate of goods exports remains below its historical average. Even so, exports are expanding despite weak demand within international production chains and far-reaching structural shifts in trade – notably in automotive manufacturing and durable consumer goods. This is compounded by a very slow recovery in demand among Poland’s main trading partners. Sales growth in the euro area remains stuck in stagnation; in October this year it was at the same level as a year earlier. Against this backdrop, a clear rise in exports is a testament to their underlying resilience.

At the same time, a weaker dollar and falling oil prices are weighing on import growth. This has been reinforced by a reduction in imports of consumer goods and passenger cars.

Weaker growth in services exports

The picture is markedly less favorable in international trade in services. Exports are still rising – up 6.2% year on year in October – but the growth rate remains on a downward trajectory. Imports, by contrast, continue to expand at a double-digit pace, with growth reaching 11.2% in October.

The weakening of services exports can be attributed to at least two factors. The first mirrors the one weighing on goods exports: a downturn in international value chains. When conditions in sectors such as automotive manufacturing deteriorate, this translates into fewer orders for back-office functions – accounting, HR and IT – located in Poland.

The second factor is the sharp rise in labor costs in Poland in recent years, which has fed through into higher prices for services. This reflects both faster nominal wage growth and the appreciation of the zloty. In other words, services provided by companies operating in Poland have become more expensive, which may have prompted some clients to look elsewhere. Added to this is the rollout of artificial intelligence, which may be dampening demand for certain IT services.

From the perspective of the economy as a whole, trade in services carries less weight than trade in goods. The value of goods exports is more than three times higher than that of services. Services, however, have been growing faster and, moreover, generate a sizeable surplus for Poland – exceeding EUR 3bn a month. As such, they are an equally important piece of the macroeconomic puzzle.

The state of play after October is clear: goods trade is moving in the right direction, while services trade is heading the other way.

Goods exports gain momentum. Poland’s exports of goods grew by 4.5% year on year in October – the fastest pace since mid-2023 – driven mainly by consumer products such as clothing, footwear, and buses. This helped push the country’s goods trade surplus above EUR 0.5bn, the highest since April.
Imports and services exports lose strength. Imports slowed to 3.2% growth amid lower demand for consumer goods and cheaper oil, while exports of services decelerated to 6.2% as rising labor costs and AI adoption squeezed Poland’s competitiveness in IT and back-office outsourcing.
Resilience amid weak global demand. The export recovery remains selective and modest by historical standards, but Poland’s ability to expand goods sales despite sluggish eurozone demand signals underlying resilience - even as the once-dynamic services sector shows clear signs of fatigue.