Forecasts for Poland’s economy in 2026

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Let us begin with the good news. In 2026, the growth rate of real GDP is very likely to pick up. That is the conclusion from 20 macroeconomic forecasts we have analyzed.

The median forecast for real GDP growth in our sample of projections from public and commercial institutions stands at 3.6%. That is slightly higher than the forecasts for 2025 (figures to be released in the spring), which range between 3.2% and 3.6%, as we noted in our year-end review. The less encouraging news is that this will most likely be the peak rate of real GDP growth in the current cycle; in subsequent years, economic momentum is expected to slow.

Domestic institutions are more upbeat about Poland’s economy in 2026 than their foreign counterparts. They project real GDP growth of 3.7%, compared with 3.4% from international institutions. Given that domestic forecasters outnumber foreign ones, the former figure appears more representative and therefore closer to the overall median forecast.

As the chart above shows, projections for real GDP growth next year range from 3.1% to 4.2%. Among international institutions, the most optimistic outlook comes from the European Commission (3.5%), while among Polish institutions mBank stands out with a forecast of 4.2%.

Discrepancies are far smaller when it comes to inflation. The median forecast is 2.6%. The lowest projection comes from Pekao BP’s analysts (2.2%), while the highest is embedded in the budget law prepared by the Ministry of Finance (3%). It is also worth noting that the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) forecast assumes unchanged interest rates relative to the publication of its report – meaning rates remain higher than they are today.

Inflation is generating progressively less public concern, reflecting its sharper-than-expected decline in 2025. The same is expected next year – provided, of course, that no unforeseen supply shocks materialize. Virtually all forecasts assume that inflation will remain within the NBP’s target (2.5%, with a tolerance band of ±1 percentage point).

Private consumption

The largest component of GDP is, of course, private consumption (around 56% in 2024), and its growth has the greatest potential impact on overall GDP performance. In turn, it is driven by growth in households’ real incomes as well as consumers’ propensity to spend.

According to the Ministry of Finance’s (MF) forecast underpinning the 2026 budget law, the average wage in the national economy is set to rise by 6.4%. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) projects the same pace of wage growth in its November forecast. Employment in the national economy, by contrast, is expected to remain broadly in line with last year’s level. Combined with relatively low inflation – lower than in 2025 – this points to a solid increase in real incomes. While slightly weaker than in 2025, it should remain relatively strong, in the range of 3.5–4%.

Real pensions and disability benefits are also set to grow at a pace similar to that seen in 2025. The indexation parameters will be announced around mid-February, but current estimates range between 4.5% and 5%. The adjustment depends on the higher of two indicators (headline inflation or so-called pensioners’ inflation in 2025), plus 20% of real wage growth over that period.

In 2025, indexation amounted to 5.5%, albeit against a backdrop of higher inflation during the year. A macroeconomic impact similar to last year’s should also come from survivors’ pensions, which began to be paid out in July 2025 and will now have a larger effect in the first half of the year.

Overall, private consumption should therefore grow at a pace close to that recorded in 2025. The NBP expects real growth in this category of 3.6%, while the MF projects 3.3%. In both cases, this is just 0.1 percentage points lower than in 2025.

Public consumption

Public consumption will play a smaller role than in 2025, even though it accounted for more than 20% of GDP in 2024. In 2024–25, its strong growth (8.2% and 5.8%, respectively, according to the NBP’s forecast) helped sustain real GDP growth. The need for a modest fiscal tightening will mean that growth in this category will lag behind overall GDP growth.

Investment

Investment was expected to accelerate as early as 2025, but those hopes were only partially fulfilled. In the first half of the year, investment growth was weak, while in the third quarter (the latest available data) it reached 7.1%, driven to a large extent by defense spending. Next year, investment should provide a stronger boost to construction and assembly output, which also underperformed last year.

The main drivers of the investment upswing will be inflows of EU funds – from both the Cohesion Fund and the National Recovery Plan (KPO) – as 2026 will be the final year in which these resources can be disbursed. These will be complemented by infrastructure projects such as Port Polska (formerly the CPK) and investments in the energy sector.

Explainer

The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (KPO) is a development strategy outlining Poland’s objectives for rebuilding and strengthening the country’s socio-economic resilience following the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the reforms and investments needed to achieve them.

The investments and reforms defined in the KPO are intended to restore the economy’s growth potential lost during the pandemic, enhance competitiveness, and improve living standards.

A contribution from private-sector investment can also be expected, potentially at a slightly higher level than in 2025. As PKO BP economists note in their forecasts, “investment related to automation and the energy transition is also likely to continue, supported by improving corporate financial results.”

Overall investment should grow at a rate of around 10%, implying a contribution to GDP growth of roughly 2 percentage points. Alongside consumption, investment will be the main engine of the economy in 2026.

Net exports

In Q3 2025, Polish exports rose by 6.1% year on year, breaking a five-quarter streak in which foreign trade had weighed on economic growth. As a result, net exports added 0.2 percentage points to annual GDP growth in that period. The improvement, particularly visible in the autumn months, was driven to a large extent by the increasingly widespread re-export of consumer goods originating from Asia.

The main challenge for exports remains weak demand in Poland’s key foreign markets – namely the euro area, and Germany in particular. At the same time, Polish exporters are facing intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers in the European market, including in segments such as household goods.

The outlook for 2026 points to a further recovery in foreign sales. mBank expects exports to grow at a rate of around 6%, banking on faster GDP growth in Germany and expanding sales to markets such as Ukraine, Slovakia, and Hungary. Other banks, however, project somewhat weaker growth.

Despite the nominal increase in exports, the contribution of net exports to GDP is expected to be negative. This reflects the fact that import growth is forecast to outpace exports. The main reasons are the high import intensity of investment and a strong zloty, which lowers import prices.

The XYZ perspective

When it comes to real GDP growth, we firmly side with the more optimistic analysts. In our view, it could reach 4%. The main arguments underpinning this outlook are a stronger-than-market-expected acceleration in investment, a potential decline in households’ propensity to save, and a more pronounced economic rebound in Germany driven by a looser fiscal stance from Poland’s western neighbor.

The key risk to our view is weaker wage growth than currently anticipated by the market. This could be held back by relatively modest increases in the minimum wage and in public-sector pay (3%).

On inflation, we are broadly in line with the consensus. In the absence of unforeseen supply shocks, price growth should remain close to 2.5%. The main risk factors are higher energy and food prices, structural changes in China – an exporter of deflation – and an unexpected weakening of the zloty.

On real GDP growth, we firmly side with the more optimistic analysts and believe it could reach 4%. On inflation, we are close to the consensus view: in the absence of unforeseen supply shocks, price growth should remain around 2.5%.
The median forecast for real GDP growth among projections from 20 public and commercial institutions is 3.6%. Virtually all forecasts assume that inflation will remain at the NBP’s target (2.5%, with a tolerance band of ±1 percentage point).
The recovery will be driven primarily by investment, above all due to inflows of EU funds – particularly from the National Recovery Plan (KPO), which must be fully utilized by the end of 2026. Consumption should also remain solid, as real income growth stays strong and a decline in the household saving rate cannot be ruled out.