Poland’s GDP grows 3.6% in 2025, catch-up with EU continues

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Poland’s real GDP expanded by 3.6% in 2025, according to preliminary data released by Statistics Poland (GUS). At the same time, Eurostat provided a first estimate for the entire European Union, showing growth of 1.6% for the year. This means the gap between Poland’s growth and the EU average was 2 percentage points – exactly the same as the average since 2010. The pace at which Poland is catching up with the EU economy shows no signs of slowing.

According to these figures, Poland led growth among the EU’s major economies. Across all member states, only Ireland and Malta outpaced Poland. However, data for Ireland are not fully representative, due to statistical distortions related to U.S. companies’ tax optimization. Malta, in turn, is a very small economy.

Growth in Poland last year was also faster than in 2024, rising by 0.6 percentage points from the previous year’s 3.0% expansion. Viewed in a historical context, this performance is very strong: it sits above the 2010–2025 average growth rate of 3.45%.

A healthier structure of GDP growth in Poland

The main driver of growth was household consumption, which rose by 3.7% year on year. In national accounts, this is recorded as “household final consumption expenditure” and accounted for almost 60% of total GDP growth, contributing 2.1 percentage points.

The second growth engine was public consumption, meaning government spending. Its contribution to growth was 1 percentage point – significantly lower than in 2024, when public consumption contributed as much to GDP expansion as private consumption.

The third factor was investment, measured as gross fixed capital formation. Investments increased by 4.2% year on year in 2025, after a 0.9% decline in 2024, when they had a negative impact of 0.2 percentage points on GDP. In 2025, their contribution rose to 0.7 percentage points. It can be said that investments saw a moderate rebound last year, though a true revival is expected only in 2026.

Overall, the growth structure in 2025 appears healthier than in the previous year. The most positive developments were the smaller contribution of public consumption and the return of a positive investment impact.

Very promising outlook for 2026

Data on GDP growth in 2025, combined with other macroeconomic indicators, point to a very positive outlook for this year. Growth is expected to accelerate further, potentially reaching 4%. This expansion will be driven not only by private consumption but also by investments, which could rise by more than 10% year on year. All of this is expected to occur with inflation around target, at approximately 2.5% year on year, down from 3.6% in 2025.

At present, there are no visible factors that could derail this scenario. Let’s hope it continues this way.

Poland remains one of the EU’s fastest-growing economies. GDP expanded by 3.6% in 2025 — well above the EU average of 1.6 — keeping Poland’s long-term catch-up pace with the bloc intact and placing it among the top growth performers in the EU.
The structure of growth has improved. Economic expansion was driven mainly by household consumption, while the role of public spending diminished and investment returned to positive territory, signaling a healthier and more balanced growth mix than in 2024.
The outlook for 2026 is strong. With inflation expected to stabilize near target and investment growth potentially exceeding 10%, Poland’s GDP growth could accelerate to around 4%, with no major macroeconomic risks currently in sight.