This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart The weakening of the dollar has emerged in recent days as one of the most important developments on financial markets. From the zloty’s perspective, this is a continuation of a trend that has been visible – with interruptions – since the second half of 2022. On balance, this is a positive development for the Polish economy, although it also comes with certain risks.
A cheaper dollar = lower energy prices
Interactive chart There are three key areas in which the dollar’s exchange rate affects the economy. The first and most important is its significant impact on global energy prices – and, by extension, on Poland’s economy. Poland is an importer of energy commodities, particularly crude oil and gas. In 2024, the country spent nearly EUR 29 billion on these imports; in 2025, this is expected to exceed EUR 26 billion, or roughly 2.6% of GDP. The correlation between energy import expenditures and the U.S. dollar’s exchange rate is illustrated in the chart.
A weaker dollar will translate into lower costs, and falling energy prices will in turn reduce inflation. This is a highly desirable development, especially following years of very high inflation. A weaker dollar also means lower prices for other commodities, including industrial metals, as well as imported military equipment, which Poland sources from the United States. This reinforces a scenario in which overall price growth in the economy could settle slightly below the inflation target – below 2.5%.
The dollar exchange rate has hit the threshold of export viability
The second area where the dollar matters is Poland’s exports. Here, the effect is the opposite: a weaker dollar worsens the price competitiveness of Polish goods abroad. Exports settled in dollars account for roughly 10% of total Polish exports.
The current exchange rate could pose a significant challenge for companies selling in dollars. According to the latest so-called NBP Quick Monitoring – a survey of business conditions incorporating data from December 2025 – the current rate is close to the profitability threshold. This threshold represents the average rate at which exporters report they would no longer make a profit from exporting.
This is not expected to be a major problem, as exporters adjust their prices to some extent in response to exchange rate movements. This is visible in the chart: when the dollar strengthens, the profitability threshold rises; when it weakens, the threshold falls. Moreover, the share of unprofitable exports remains low. In Q4 of last year, it stood at 2.8%, while 14% of firms reported that at least part of their exports was unprofitable. These are not alarming figures, but continued dollar weakness could increasingly challenge exporters.
A weaker dollar may weigh on EU exports
The third area affected by the dollar’s exchange rate is European Union exports. This indirectly affects Poland, as the country is integrated into many European supply chains. The precise impact is difficult to quantify, but historically, periods of a weaker dollar have been associated with a modest slowdown in exports outside the EU.
On balance, a weaker dollar is favorable for Poland. It primarily means lower energy prices, which in turn reduce inflation. However, over the longer term, it could pose a challenge for Polish exporters.
Key Takeaways
- A weaker dollar lowers costs and supports disinflation in Poland. As an energy importer, Poland benefits directly from a cheaper dollar through lower prices for oil, gas, and other commodities, easing inflationary pressure and supporting a scenario of inflation settling below the 2.5% target.
- Export competitiveness is nearing a sensitive threshold. While dollar-denominated exports account for only about 10% of total Polish exports, the current exchange rate is close to the profitability limit for some firms. For now, the share of unprofitable exports remains low, but prolonged dollar weakness could increasingly weigh on exporters.
- Indirect risks emerge via EU supply chains. A weaker dollar may dampen EU exports outside the bloc, which could spill over to Poland given its deep integration into European value chains—posing a longer-term risk despite the near-term macroeconomic benefits.