This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
If last year’s upward trend continues – when bilateral trade between Poland and Germany rose by 5% - Poland could, as early as 2026, overtake France as Germany’s largest goods trading partner. That would make Poland Germany’s fourth-largest trading partner overall, after China (EUR 252 billion in 2025), the United States (EUR 241 billion) and the Netherlands (EUR 209 billion). Germany, meanwhile, has been Poland’s most important trading partner for decades.
Interactive chart The steady rise in trade with Poland’s western neighbor is clearly visible in the data. In 2010, bilateral turnover stood at EUR 65 billion – less than 45% of Germany’s trade with France at the time and almost three times lower than in 2025. The sharpest increase came in 2021–2022, when total trade expanded by nearly 40%. Part of this was driven by inflation following first the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine. But it also reflects, at least in part, genuine growth in trade volumes. The equivalent increase in trade with France over the same period was markedly lower.
Everyone shows a surplus
What exactly makes up Poland’s trade with Germany? In 2025, Polish exports (which are simultaneously German imports) amounted to EUR 80.5 billion, according to Destatis. Polish imports from Germany reached EUR 100 billion over the same period. This implies a Polish trade deficit of EUR 19.5 billion, which is also Germany’s corresponding surplus.
However, the picture becomes more complicated when looking at Statistics Poland (GUS), which reports different figures. According to GUS, Polish exports to Germany stood at EUR 98.7 billion, while imports amounted to EUR 70.9 billion. That implies a Polish surplus of EUR 27.8 billion. In other words, both countries, on the basis of their national statistics, record a surplus in bilateral trade.
These discrepancies stem from differences in trade accounting methodology. As analysts at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) explained in their study Poland–Germany Trade and Investment Cooperation, exports and imports are, in statistical terms, two distinct categories. Exports are recorded by country of destination, while imports are recorded by country of origin. This means that exports may include goods dispatched to a given country even if they are later routed through, or temporarily stored in, third countries – for example, after being unloaded at a port. Such flows are not always captured symmetrically in import statistics, giving rise to significant divergences.
Poland comes out on top
One way to harmonize the data is to rely on imports recorded by country of origin. Some differences remain – due to exchange rate assumptions, statistical thresholds or reporting lags – but the approach provides a clearer picture of the underlying balance.
On this basis, in 2025 Poland recorded a trade surplus with Germany of EUR 9.6 billion. Total bilateral trade amounted to €151 billion, lower than the figure reported by Destatis.
Services still lag behind
The picture looks different in services trade. France remains a far larger partner for Germany than Poland. According to Bundesbank data, in 2025 total services trade between France and Germany amounted to EUR 62 billion, compared with EUR 29 billion between Poland and Germany.
When goods and services are combined, France therefore still remains Germany’s larger overall partner. Total bilateral exchange between France and Germany reached EUR 248 billion last year, compared with EUR 210 billion between Poland and Germany.
XYZ perspective
Despite statistical differences, trade between Poland and Germany continues to grow rapidly. Closing in on France in terms of total turnover underscores Poland’s emergence as one of Germany’s core economic partners. This is heavy-weight status. Poland already ranks ahead of Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain and Switzerland in this respect. A significant factor behind this is German foreign investment in Poland – and, more broadly, foreign capital. What matters, however, is that value added is increasingly generated within the Polish economy, made possible precisely by the expansion of trade.