This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
The actions of Mateusz Morawiecki have fueled speculation about a possible split within Law and Justice (PiS). The launch of a new association, along with his public criticism of intra-party opponents, has exposed growing tensions. A recent poll measuring potential support for Morawiecki’s political project has also been published. Are we approaching a turning point for PiS?
Easter briefly slowed the pace of politics, but tensions on the right are quickly returning to the center of attention – primarily due to the actions of the former prime minister.
Sequence of events: signals of tension, but not yet a split
At the beginning of April, the leadership of Law and Justice (PiS) suspended MP Krzysztof Szczucki for breaking party discipline during a vote on amendments to the Criminal Code. The decision carries broader implications than an isolated disciplinary measure – Mr. Szczucki is widely seen as a politician aligned with Mateusz Morawiecki, which feeds into an escalating factional conflict.
On the same day, Mr. Morawiecki took part in a public debate with Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. The exchange itself was moderate in tone, but its strategic significance was clear: it demonstrated that the former prime minister still operates as a politician capable of cross-party engagement and building broader political relationships.
In our conclusions following the debate, we noted that Mr. Morawiecki’s discussion with a political opponent was intended to signal to his intra-party rivals that he remains a heavyweight player who must be taken seriously.
Events in the following days confirmed this interpretation. The very next day, a high-profile interview with Mr. Morawiecki by Michał Wróblewski was published on the Wirtualna Polska news portal. In it, the former prime minister confirmed, among other things, the creation of his own association, intended to compete for the support of more centrist voters.
Importantly, the project is meant to operate within the broader Law and Justice (PiS) ecosystem. At the same time, Mr. Morawiecki did not hold back from criticizing his internal party opponents. He also took aim at PiS’s prime ministerial candidate Przemysław Czarnek, referencing Mr. Czarnek’s “the renewables BS (Pol. oze-sroze)” remark and arguing that parts of the party are making a mistake by questioning the legacy of his government.
Tensions between Mr. Morawiecki and PiS leadership
The interview resonated widely within PiS. Later the same day, Mr. Morawiecki met with Jarosław Kaczyński (the leader of PiS) at Nowogrodzka Street, the party’s headquarters. According to media reports, the party leader was displeased by the announcement of plans to create a new association.
Politicians critical of Mr. Morawiecki interpret the initiative as an attempt to fragment the party. There are also circulating theories suggesting that the former prime minister may be deliberately seeking his own expulsion from PiS. On this basis, he would then build a new political project.
It is impossible at this stage to determine how much truth there is in such speculation. What is certain, however, is that the following day Rzeczpospolita daily published a SW Research poll on potential support for Mr. Morawiecki’s political formation.
The survey shows that 16.7% of respondents would consider voting for such a party in the event of his departure from PiS. More than 60% reject that possibility, while around 20% remain undecided.
A symbolic closing note to this sequence of events came in a statement by Przemysław Czarnek, who clearly distanced himself from the PSL project:
“– We do not need any PSL-style SAFE when we already have the original in President Karol Nawrocki,” Mr. Czarnek declared.
This is a reference to PSL-initiated solution to the crisis over SAFE program in Poland that unveiled when President Nawrocki vetoed the act. Read more about the matter here.
...as well as with Przemysław Czarnek
Tensions between Mr. Morawiecki and Mr. Czarnek are not new, but in recent days they have clearly intensified. After the convention in Kraków, during which Mr. Czarnek’s nomination [for Prime Minister if PiS wins the 2027 elections – ed. ] was announced, Mr. Morawiecki admitted that he “does not necessarily” see himself in the role of deputy prime minister in such a government. However, in an interview with Bogdan Rymanowski, he did not elaborate on this remark.
The entire sequence of events during Holy Week forms a coherent picture of Mr. Morawiecki playing a political game on his own terms. No explicit declaration of a split has been made, but it is difficult to speak of unity. Tensions are visibly rising, despite earlier statements by Jarosław Kaczyński that PiS should function as “one fist.”
The thesis that Mr. Morawiecki may soon leave the party has the potential to become the political sensation of the year, but it should be balanced against a sober assessment of electoral realities.
It’s just one poll
The recent SW Research poll should not be interpreted as evidence of Mateusz Morawiecki’s real potential to secure around 16% of the electorate. The survey was not benchmarked against support for other political parties. As such, it can be treated at best as an Easter-season political curiosity rather than a reliable electoral forecast.
History suggests that similar results can be misleading. In 2013, the Homo Homini polling firm published a survey in which Przemysław Wipler’s “Republicans” association reached 19% support – comparable to the largest political parties at the time. The study was met with criticism from the OBOP Association of Opinion and Market Research Companies, which pointed to leading questions and methodological shortcomings. At the time, Homo Homini’s then-head, Marcin Duma, rejected the allegations, yet the political project itself quickly disappeared from the public scene.
On the other hand, such studies may signal the existence of unmet needs within the more moderate segment of the right-wing electorate. However, this thesis would require confirmation through in-depth qualitative research, which – so far – is lacking in the context of tensions within Law and Justice (PiS).
“Out of spite against Mr. Kaczyński, would he help Mr. Tusk win elections?”
The key problem for any potential Mr. Morawiecki-led political formation is not polling, but parliamentary arithmetic. According to analyst Daniel Pers, a potential secession in PiS would benefit not the right, but the Civic Coalition (KO). An outflow of voters from Law and Justice (PiS) would weaken its ability to secure parliamentary seats, which under the D’Hondt electoral system favors larger and more consolidated parties – including Donald Tusk’s political camp.
In addition, fragmentation on the right of the political spectrum strengthens smaller actors such as the Confederation of the Polish Crown (KPP), which could gain a pivotal “kingmaker” role in forming a parliamentary majority. The result is a political catch-22: any move that weakens PiS increases the risk of ceding initiative to its competitors.
Stagnation in PiS and Mr. Morawiecki’s dilemmas
It remains unclear in which direction Mr. Morawiecki’s strategy will evolve. Although he declares his intention to remain within Law and Justice (PiS), his actions – building an association, a debate with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, criticism of Przemysław Czarnek, and increased field activity – suggest the construction of an autonomous political position. These steps are difficult to dismiss as coincidental, particularly for a politician of his stature.
The picture is further complicated by polling data. According to the ewybory.eu aggregator, average support for PiS in March stood at 24.7%, indicating only a marginal month-on-month increase and still a result below the levels recorded in autumn 2025. The so-called “Czarnek effect” remains limited, while the party’s declared unity has quickly been undermined by internal tensions.
As a result, Mr. Morawiecki finds himself in a strategic limbo: between attempts to strengthen his position within PiS and the risk that any move toward greater independence would primarily benefit his political rivals.
Key Takeaways
- Mateusz Morawiecki continues his efforts to strengthen his individual political position on the right. This is evidenced by his recent debate with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and the announcement that he intends to establish his own association. The former prime minister’s activities have met with resistance from the leadership of Law and Justice (PiS) and have led to public disputes with Przemysław Czarnek.
- Mr. Morawiecki’s activity is fueling speculation about a potential departure from the party and the creation of a separate political entity. A recent SW Research poll suggests some level of interest in such a project among moderate voters; however, without further in-depth analysis, it is difficult to speak of any real electoral potential for such an initiative.
- Potential fragmentation of right-wing political forces carries significant risk for the entire camp, given the mechanics of the seat allocation system. In the current political reality, the emergence of a new party could bring the greatest relative benefits to the parties forming the current governing coalition.