This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Hungary’s elections will see Viktor Orbán – who has governed the country since 2010 – leave office. The incoming administration will confront a long list of challenges, not least the need to stimulate the domestic economy. That could present a significant opening for Polish companies – both those exporting to Hungary and those planning to invest there. Hungary’s economy is already a major destination for Polish outward investment.
Strong exports, weak imports
Interactive chart Poland’s exports of goods to Hungary reached EUR 9.3bn (approx. PLN 39.5bn) in 2025, according to data from Statistics Poland (GUS). Since 2010, they have nearly tripled, with particularly rapid growth in the post-pandemic years of 2021–22. By contrast, imports of goods from Hungary amounted to EUR 5.5bn (approx. PLN 23.3bn) in 2025, having merely doubled over the same period.
Poland therefore recorded a trade surplus of EUR 3.8bn (approx. PLN 16.1bn) with Hungary last year. This is a substantial figure, equivalent to 40% of Poland’s exports to that market, and it has widened markedly since 2010.
Entrepreneur's perspective
Krzysztof Domarecki: Business should steadily “get on with it”
Selena has been present in Hungary for 25 years. We feel at home there, and Hungarians trust products from Poland. Over that period, we have navigated multiple economic and political cycles. Ours is not a short-term presence but a strategic one, measured in decades.
We intend to remain for the next 25–50 years. That is why, in 2025, together with Hungary’s Masterplast, we opened a glass wool manufacturing plant – an insulation material essential for sustainable construction. Investments of this kind are not made with any particular election in mind, but on the basis of a long-term assessment of market potential and prospects – and, on that score, Hungary looks positive.
That said, Hungary has in recent years found itself in an unprecedented situation within the European Union. In December 2022, the European Commission froze access to around EUR 6.3bn (approx. PLN 26.7bn) in cohesion funds under the conditionality mechanism, as well as roughly EUR 5.8bn (approx. PLN 24.6bn) in grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), making their disbursement contingent on additional conditions. These factors have materially slowed Hungary’s economic development. They have been compounded by policy missteps and widely cited irregularities in the allocation of public funds. I therefore hope that, following the Hungarian electorate’s democratic decision to change the governing team, the European Commission will swiftly lift the existing restrictions, which have contributed to the country’s slowdown.
Hungary should be treated by internationally active Polish firms as a market worth being in – not as a one-off play, but as part of a long-term presence in Central Europe. It is a stable and predictable market. If we want to build strong domestic companies with international reach and significance, we must be able to operate regardless of day-to-day political shifts. Business should steadily “get on with it”, building value over the long term.
Hungary slipping slightly behind
Over the past 16 years, Hungary has somewhat lost ground as one of Poland’s key trading partners. In 2010, it ranked ninth among destinations for Polish exports; by 2025, it had fallen to twelfth. A similar pattern is visible on the import side. In 2010, Hungary ranked 16th among Poland’s main sourcing markets; by 2025, it had slipped to 18th.
This gradual, albeit modest, decline is also evident in trade shares. In 2010, Hungary accounted for 2.8% of Poland’s exports; by 2025, that figure had edged down to 2.5%. On the import side, the share fell from 1.7% to 1.5% over the same period.
Several factors help explain this trend. Polish trade has expanded strongly westward. The rising importance of markets such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States has naturally reduced Hungary’s relative weight. But that is not the whole story.
Part of the explanation lies within Hungary’s own economy. On the export side, two issues stand out. In recent years, growth in private consumption has been subdued, weighing on demand. To be sure, in the past year this was partly offset by a strong appreciation of the forint, which made imported goods cheaper. Overall, however, consumption growth has lagged behind most economies in the region. At the same time, inflows of EU funds were sharply curtailed for political reasons, leading to weaker investment. As a result, demand from that channel was also suppressed.
Overall, Poland’s exports to Hungary have grown robustly, while imports have lagged significantly. In other words, Hungary has struggled in recent years to expand its exports to Poland. One reason may be relatively weak investment by European multinationals in Hungary – again, partly due to political factors. In recent years, Viktor Orbán’s government has placed greater emphasis on attracting Chinese investment.
Exports become more diversified
Interactive chart Machinery and electrical equipment remain the largest category of Polish exports to Hungary. In 2025, they accounted for 24% of total exports (based on CN classification sections). Other important categories include metals and metal products (14%), chemicals (13%), food and beverages (10%), as well as vehicles and transport equipment (8%).
Interactive chart Over the past 16 years, Polish exports have become markedly more diversified. In 2010, machinery and electrical equipment were also the leading category, but they made up as much as 43% of total exports. The top five product groups together accounted for 75% of exports then, compared with 68% in 2025. Even so, the overall structure of key categories has remained broadly similar.
It is also worth noting that, of the 21 product sections, exports have increased in 20 since 2010. The most pronounced growth was recorded in chemicals, where exports rose more than fivefold. The only decline – of 9% - was in mineral products (Section V).
A key market for the international expansion of Polish firms
The cumulative net value of Polish foreign direct investment (FDI) in Hungary reached EUR 1.6bn (approx. PLN 6.8bn) over 2010–24, according to the National Bank of Hungary. Data from the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH) place Hungary among the top ten destinations for Polish outward investment.
The peak year was 2017, when Polish net FDI totaled nearly EUR 700m (approx. PLN 3.0bn). More broadly, significant inflows were recorded between 2015 and 2023, excluding the pandemic years of 2020–21. This period coincides with the tenure of the United Right government in Poland, and part of these outlays likely reflects investments by state-owned enterprises in Hungary. That said, a considerable number of large private Polish companies have also invested in the country. These include food-sector players such as Maspex, Mlekovita, and Mokate, as well as firms like TZMO, ABC Data, LPP, and Medort.
In 2024 (the latest full-year data), however, Polish investment in Hungary slowed sharply, with net inflows amounting to just EUR 20m (approx. PLN 85m). There is a chance that, following Sunday’s elections, the market will once again become an attractive destination.
Key Takeaways
- Hungary remains an important destination for Polish investment, with cumulative net FDI totaling EUR 1.6bn (approx. PLN 6.8bn) over 2010–24. The peak year was 2017, with inflows of nearly EUR 700m (approx. PLN 3.0bn). Improved economic conditions following a change in government could increase these flows and strengthen the presence of Polish firms in the market.
- A change of government in Hungary could help restore economic growth by unlocking EU funds and boosting investment. In recent years, their curtailment has weighed on demand, reflected, among other things, in weaker consumption dynamics. A potential rebound could translate into higher imports – including from Poland – which reached EUR 9.3bn (approx. PLN 39.5bn) in 2025.
- Poland runs a strong trade surplus with Hungary. In 2025, it amounted to EUR 3.8bn (approx. PLN 16.1bn), or around 40% of the value of exports to that market (according to Statistics Poland, GUS). Since 2010, exports have nearly tripled, while imports have merely doubled (to EUR 5.5bn / approx. PLN 23.3bn). At the same time, Hungary’s share in Polish exports declined from 2.8% to 2.5%, pointing to a relative decrease in the market’s importance.