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Services in Poland lose some momentum, but remain a pillar of growth

The first data on Poland’s services output for 2026 are now in. In January, seasonally adjusted output rose by 4.6% year on year, according to data from Statistics Poland (GUS). This is a respectable result, though the pace of growth has clearly slowed compared with December last year.

Marek Skawiński
15.04.2026, 16:24
A sign at a bike shop is seen in Bydgoszcz, Poland on 19 October, 2017.
For some time now, services have been outperforming industrial production. The start of the year confirms this pattern. Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

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At that time, growth reached 9.9% year on year. Such a strong reading can be seen as a one-off spike, but even the average for last year was higher than January’s figure (6%).

Services vs. industrial output: the trend continues

For some time now, services have been outperforming industrial production. The start of the year confirms this pattern. By way of reminder, industrial output in constant prices, seasonally adjusted, rose by 1.7% year on year in February, according to Statistics Poland (GUS). It was not a stellar reading, but an improvement on January, when output fell by 1.5% year on year. For comparison, growth in this sector reached 3% year on year for the whole of 2025.

Services, then, have weathered the cold winter in better shape than industry. The strongest growth was recorded in information and communication, as well as in professional, scientific and technical activities (around 7% year on year). The only category to post a decline on an annual basis was administrative and support service activities – covering areas such as rental and leasing, office administration and employment services.

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The dark side of a rising services share: cost disease

What lies behind the growth in services output? To a large extent, it is a natural consequence of economic development. As a rule, the more advanced an economy becomes, the smaller the role goods play in meeting consumer needs, while services take on greater importance.

Yet the growing share of services in the economy also carries potential downsides over the longer term. Productivity growth in services is generally seen as slower than in other sectors. This reflects the fact that services rely more heavily on human capital and are less susceptible to automation. The concept was developed by the economist William Baumol and is known as “Baumol’s cost disease”. Productivity in parts of the services sector – often those linked to the public sphere, such as education, culture and healthcare – tends to rise more slowly, while wages increase in line with the rest of the economy. The result is upward pressure on costs.