Poland still a top performer, but growth is clearly slowing

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Outlook for the next five years…

How will EU economies evolve over the next five years (2027–2031)? The chart referenced in the headline illustrates this by averaging both real GDP growth and per capita growth over that period.

According to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Poland is set to record the sixth-fastest real GDP growth in the EU between 2027 and 2031. Small island economies – Cyprus and Malta – top the ranking, reflecting, among other factors, population growth in those countries. Of the next 12 countries on the list, as many as 11 are from Central and Eastern Europe (with Luxembourg the only exception). The fastest expansion is expected in countries that joined the EU in 2007 (Romania and Bulgaria) and in 2013 (Croatia).

Among the countries that acceded in 2004, Poland is forecast to post the strongest real GDP growth, averaging 2.5% per year. That said, projections suggest that all of these economies will expand at broadly similar rates, in the range of 1.9% to 2.4% annually. By contrast, the EU’s largest economies – Germany, France and Italy – are expected to grow at around 1% per year, while Spain is likely to perform somewhat better, at 1.7% annually.

Poland performs relatively better once adjusted for demographic change. On that measure, it ranks fourth, with growth of 2.7% per year – behind only Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania. For most Central and Eastern European countries, per capita GDP growth will outpace headline GDP growth, reflecting population decline over the period.

Elsewhere, the picture is mixed. Population gains are projected in France, Spain and Sweden, while declines are expected in Germany, Italy and Greece.

Both metrics matter. Real GDP growth (combined with the GDP deflator) indicates whether an economy can grow its way out of debt, all else equal. GDP per capita growth, by contrast, serves as a proxy – albeit a simplified one – for changes in living standards.

and a historical perspective

It is therefore instructive to view these forecasts through a historical lens. The chart below shows average real GDP growth in Poland and across the EU in five-year periods from 1997 to 2031.

What stands out is the steady deceleration of Poland’s real GDP growth. The current five-year period (2021–2026) delivers the second-weakest result on record (average growth of 3.1%), surpassed only by 2012–2016 (2.7%). This comes despite Poland being the fastest-growing large economy in the EU in 2024–2026. Even so, the growth differential between Poland and the EU has been the narrowest to date, at 1.4 percentage points.

The next five years (2027–2031) are expected to mark the slowest growth yet (an average of 2.5% annually) and the smallest gap relative to the EU (1.1 percentage points). The deceleration is driven by a shrinking working-age population and convergence toward the technological frontier of Western economies. In that sense, it is a largely natural process: the closer an economy gets to the frontier, the harder it becomes to leapfrog stages of development. Differences in demographic dynamics – more precisely, population decline in Poland versus the EU – also play a role.

Of course, IMF projections may prove too conservative, and growth could turn out stronger. At the same time, Poland’s Ministry of Finance also assumes a gradual slowdown in real GDP growth over this period, reaching 2.2% by 2030. It is worth noting that the latter half of the period is expected to coincide with substantial fiscal consolidation, which could further dampen growth.