This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart First, the comparison base from April last year was exceptionally high, when sales increased by 7.6%. Second, Easter fell at the beginning of April this year, rather than in the second half of April as it did last year. As a result, a large share of holiday-related consumption was already recorded in March.
That does not mean, however, that the data contain no negative signals. A significant contribution to the increase came from the category covering solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. In constant prices, sales in this segment surged by as much as 25.6% year on year – an extraordinarily strong reading. Two mechanisms are likely at work here. The first is stockpiling of fuel by companies and households amid concerns over potential physical shortages or price increases. The second is so-called fuel tourism. Without such a sharp increase in fuel sales, retail sales growth in April would have been negative.
Growth in other categories remained weak, particularly for durable and semi-durable goods. Sales of furniture, consumer electronics and household appliances (at constant prices) rose by only 1.0% year on year, while sales of cars, motorcycles and parts increased by 0.8%. Clothing and footwear sales, meanwhile, fell sharply by 9.5%.
It is possible that some consumers increased spending on fuel at the expense of these categories. Another explanation may be that, with the energy shock of 2022–23 still fresh in mind, households have started to curb consumption pre-emptively and increase savings.
It should be remembered, however, that during periods of abrupt developments such as an oil-market shock, macroeconomic data tend to contain a great deal of noise. Assessing the condition of the consumer on the basis of a single month’s figures would therefore be decidedly premature.
What is certain is that the current environment – including rising inflation – is not conducive to stronger consumer spending. At the same time, the shock, at least for now, does not appear severe enough to trigger a sharp cut in household expenditure.