A self-inflicted crisis for Poland’s governing coalition

Civic Coalition is facing a major reputational crisis. The emotions triggered by the hospital-related scandal will likely already be visible in public opinion surveys conducted this summer. What should Donald Tusk do now?

This is shaping up to be, in all likelihood, the most serious image crisis for the Civic Coalition this year. Reporting by Patryk Słowik of Zero.pl has electrified Poland. Allegations of misconduct by a young party activist, Dawid Kacprzyk – who achieved unusually rapid, multimillion-PLN earnings without a medical specialization – turned out to be only the opening act in a broader stream of revelations. On Wednesday, further reports were published, casting the Warsaw branch of the Civic Coalition in an even harsher light. At South Hospital in Warsaw, political VIPs were reportedly able to use the emergency department without queuing, while other patients waited in a separate, sterile waiting area.

A broken promise to uphold ethical standards

Rising deficits in the healthcare system, along with regular reports of growing waiting times and the closure of maternity wards, have become the Achilles’ heel of the government. And although, in the post-1989 Poland, healthcare has typically been more of a burden than an opportunity for any government to capitalize politically, for the so-called October 15 Coalition (the date of the last elections – ed.) the situation is becoming increasingly acute.

The scandal surrounding Kacprzyk and the preferential treatment of political VIPs might have resonated less strongly had the government achieved tangible and narratively compelling successes in healthcare policy. However, it has neither, which is fueling public anger.

On X (formerly Twitter), videos and photos have gone viral showing 28-year-old Dawid Kacprzyk posing with a board reading “Millionaires’ Avenue,” decorated with the Law and Justice (PiS) party logo. Because together with other activists, Kacprzyk had previously criticized the then-government (PiS) for party operatives enriching themselves in state institutions. Today, the outrage has boomeranged. Kacprzyk himself was not – and is not – a prominent figure within the governing camp, but his actions are now being directly attributed to the government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

“We are held to higher standards”

Civic Coalition and its coalition partners pledged in 2023 to abandon practices that had been one of the reasons the Law and Justice government lost power after eight years. “We are held to higher standards,” party insiders reportedly heard repeatedly behind closed doors as prospects for new positions opened up. At the same time, Donald Tusk failed to do enough to prevent such practices, and public anger has consequently been directed primarily at him – not at the young activist, who is no longer even in the party.

The Kacprzyk scandal is the most media-visible episode, but not the first involving allegations of misconduct by Civic Coalition politicians in healthcare. A few weeks earlier, Senator Tomasz Lenz left the Civic Coalition’s Senate caucus. The former party politician allegedly arranged for his son to receive an expedited medical procedure at a hospital in Aleksandrów Kujawski. The matter was initially downplayed by Tusk and party activists. However, online pressure grew, and the Civic Coalition’s passivity toward misconduct within its own ranks became political ammunition for the opposition.

The issue was ultimately managed politically, but it now appears to have been a plaster placed over a festering wound. The Lenz and Kacprzyk cases share a common denominator. For Donald Tusk’s cabinet, they are ticking time bombs ahead of the political summer recess. This is especially true given that the Civic Coalition leader has not imposed political accountability on any senior figures. Meanwhile, only the first steps have been taken toward systemic measures to counter abuse by dishonest doctors within the healthcare system.

Healthcare remains a key political issue

On Friday morning, the Sejm passed a draft law linking doctors’ earnings to PESEL (personal identification number, every citizen has one – ed. ) or PWZ (an abbreviation meaning “the right to practice a profession”) numbers. This means that data on physicians’ incomes collected by the Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Tariff System will no longer be anonymized. However, given current public sentiment, this appears to be only the beginning. The government is expected to soon address caps on doctors’ earnings. The open question is how much political will there will be to tackle an issue that every government since the Third Polish Republic has largely avoided.

The matter is alarming for the government because it concerns one of the most sensitive areas of public life in Poland – healthcare. This is emphasized by political marketing expert Dr. Sergiusz Trzeciak, author of “The Tree of Electoral Campaign 2.0, or How to Win Elections.”

“As all public opinion surveys consistently show, healthcare ranks among the top issues for citizens and always generates strong emotions. Hence the enormous interest in the earnings of this – what the media called – the ‘young millionaire doctor.’ But the case has far broader dimensions: he not only failed to work the declared hours, but should not have served as an emergency department coordinator at all, given that he had not completed his specialization. The entire arrangement was therefore illegal,” the expert stresses.

First ripples of a reputational crisis

At this stage, it is difficult to obtain precise polling data capturing public sentiment on the hospital scandal. One possible indicator is automated monitoring by analysts at the European Analytical Collective Res Futura. According to their measurements, mentions of the VIP lounge at South Hospital in Warsaw reached a reach of over 100 million, with a clearly negative sentiment.

Is that a lot?

In absolute terms, yes. But does it necessarily signal more than heightened attention on social media? Not necessarily. This point was raised by Marcin Duma, former head of the polling agency IBRiS, who noted that last year’s National Recovery Plan (KPO) scandal generated three times higher reach. Despite that, after Rafał Trzaskowski’s defeat in the presidential election, Civic Coalition managed to recover from its political crisis, stabilize its support, and maintain its lead in opinion polls.

A politicized healthcare system

This does not necessarily mean the same outcome this time. In the view of Dr. Sergiusz Trzeciak, the hospital scandal has the potential to remain in the public debate for an extended period.

“For Civic Coalition, this is an extremely serious crisis. If the party does not see this matter through to the very end, further questions will keep emerging – particularly regarding systemic oversight of hospitals. Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski did, it is true, take consequences and dismiss the hospital management, but the facility was directly under his authority, which means the scandal ricochets back onto him. In the longer term, this issue cannot be closed with a dismissive claim that it involved only a local councilor who is no longer a member of the Civic Platform. Citizens can clearly see that this individual was operating under a visible political umbrella of protection,” the expert argues.

He adds that the scandal is fueling broader public debate on the politicization of the healthcare system.

“People are beginning to recognize systemic mechanisms and are increasingly openly discussing the politicization of healthcare. They observe that hospital boards are often composed of politicians for whom these roles are a source of additional income. In the process, they also advance their own interests and enable earnings for associates. This is triggering a wider debate on how the state functions, strongly resonating with a widespread sense of injustice. Poles pay high contributions to the National Health Fund, the healthcare budget is steadily increasing, yet the system is still short of money. A public inquiry is beginning to take shape: who led to this situation, who created such a dysfunctional system, and why did those in power allow it?” the political scientist notes.

Reputational and polling pressure

These are not the only reasons for concern for the governing coalition. Donald Tusk’s political formation faces several.

The first is that the hospital scandal is very easy to understand and retell in two minutes at a family dinner table. The second is that it touches on an issue that triggers strong emotions among Poles. Everyone knows someone who must wait months for a simple procedure, even though the same treatment could be arranged immediately through a costly private consultation.

The gap between citizens’ personal experiences and political privilege has the potential to generate a strong and highly unfavorable emotional response toward the government – one that could permanently alienate parts of its existing electorate. There is also a third signal, arguably the most important warning for the government.

KO’s slump in the polls

This refers to public opinion research. Two indicators are worth examining.

Standard polling shows a slight decline in support for the Civic Coalition. In April and May, average support for Civic Coalition stood at 33.5%. In June, it eased slightly to an average of 32.2%. The difference may appear modest, but the underlying detail is less encouraging for the party – particularly in surveys conducted by the government-affiliated CBOS polling center.

In April, the Civic Coalition enjoyed support of around 32%. A month later it was 30.8%, and in June it had fallen further to 28.5%. Is this a mild slowdown or a visible demobilization of the electorate? One clue appears to weigh against Donald Tusk’s party. Over recent months, the Civic Coalition has been burdened by reputational crises that have gained strong traction online. The party opted for a strategy of waiting out both issues. Only later did Donald Tusk decide for instance to remove Lenz from the parliamentary club structures – after the case had already broken into social media discourse.

On the other hand, economic data has been broadly positive for the government. The exception is the growing budget deficit, though this is not necessarily a concern that dominates the priorities of the coalition’s electorate.

Still, the first signal appears stronger. This is especially true as early signs of growing public dissatisfaction are also visible in CBOS surveys tracking assessments of government performance.

Declining government approval ratings

At the beginning of the year, 37% of respondents assessed the government’s performance positively. The peak this year came in April, at 40%. However, already a month later, in May, the share of positive assessments dropped to 35%. At the same time, the government is viewed negatively by 51% of respondents – up 4 percentage points compared with April.

It is worth noting, however, that these figures are still better than those recorded immediately after the presidential election. A year ago, in June, a record 59% of respondents assessed government policy negatively, while only 32% expressed positive views. That earlier downturn may have been a consequence of the unsuccessful presidential election, amplified by fresh campaign emotions. At that time, both the government and Civic Coalition were indeed in crisis – and they managed to recover from it.

Will the same happen now? It is possible that the emotions triggered by the hospital scandal will already be visible in summer opinion polls. The ball – however difficult the situation – is still in the Civic Coalition’s court. The party must deliver a convincing response to the growing frustration among its own electorate. Without it, the coalition risks coming within a step of a lasting demobilization of the segment of voters that secured its victory three years ago.

Key Takeaways

1. The financial misconduct attributed to Dawid Kacprzyk, along with the VIP lounge at South Hospital in Warsaw, has triggered a deep reputational crisis for the Civic Coalition. Healthcare consistently ranks among the most important issues for citizens and reliably generates strong emotions. The contrast between patients’ everyday struggles and political privilege is fueling significant public anger, which is directed primarily at Prime Minister Donald Tusk and, indirectly, also at Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski.
2. The case has the potential to remain in the public sphere for an extended period, as citizens perceive it as evidence of systemic dysfunction. This resonates strongly with a widespread sense of injustice among Poles, who pay high contributions to the National Health Fund while the system continues to face chronic funding shortages.
3. A gradual erosion of voter enthusiasm was already visible in polling data even before the scandal broke. CBOS surveys indicate a steady decline in support for the Civic Coalition, from 32% in April to 28.5% in June. The absence of firm and substantive accountability measures from the party leadership creates a real risk of lasting demobilization among the electorate that secured victory for the current governing coalition.