This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Average wages in Poland’s enterprise sector rose by 5.9% year on year in August, according to Statistics Poland (GUS), reaching PLN 9,259.54 (EUR 2,116). That was a marked slowdown from July, when wages increased by 6.8% year on year. Analysts had expected growth of 6.6%. It is worth remembering, however, that the data cover only companies employing at least ten people. Across the economy as a whole, wage growth was probably somewhat weaker.
Interactive chart The slowdown in wage growth is not merely a phenomenon of recent months. In 2024–25, workers were more likely to press for higher pay as they sought to restore purchasing power eroded by the preceding period of high inflation. As those losses were gradually recouped, wage pressures began to ease.
Real wages are slowing...
The renewed rise in inflation is also contributing to the current slowdown in real wage growth. Consumer prices increased by 3.4% year on year in August, mainly as a result of a supply shock in the oil market. Combined with weaker nominal wage growth, this means that the purchasing power of salaries is rising more slowly. In August, real wages in the enterprise sector increased by just 2.1% year on year.
Interactive chart ...and are running below the historical average this year
How does the current pace of real wage growth compare with the longer-term trend? Between 2016 and 2025, the purchasing power of the average wage in the enterprise sector increased by an average of 3.4% a year. Between January and July 2026, by contrast, real wage growth averaged 3.1% year on year. Including August would bring that average down further.
Interactive chart This marks a clear change from 2024 and 2025, when real wages increased by 7.0% and 4.5%, respectively. At the same time, the purchasing power of pensions and disability benefits has risen rapidly in recent years. The average pension and disability benefit increased in real terms by 10.4% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025 and 4.4% between January and July 2026.
XYZ view
Slower growth in real wages is likely to mean, above all, weaker growth in household consumption. Over the past two years, the rapid improvement in employees’ purchasing power was one of the factors supporting consumer demand. With real wage growth running at 2–3%, that boost becomes markedly weaker.
For companies, this means less wage-related cost pressure on the one hand, but slower growth in demand for goods and services on the other. If nominal wage growth continues to weaken while inflation remains elevated, household incomes in real terms may cease to be as strong a driver of economic growth as they were in 2024–25.
The draft 2027 budget assumes average annual inflation of 2.8% and a 5.9% increase in the average wage across the national economy, which would imply real wage growth of around 3%. That assumption, however, will depend to a large extent on how the current inflation shock develops. If it persists, inflation would remain higher, resulting in weaker real wage growth.
On the other hand, persistently higher inflation could eventually strengthen wage demands again and accelerate nominal wage growth. Such a response usually comes with a lag. Real wage growth in 2027 may therefore depend largely on how quickly the current inflationary impulse fades and whether it lasts long enough to revive wage pressure. And 2027 will be an election year.