The right is at odds. A Senate pact will not be easy

Tensions among the potential participants on the right are plentiful, and some are intensifying. The involvement of Grzegorz Braun’s party may prove particularly difficult to accept.

Law and Justice, or PiS, has parted ways with a group of politicians close to Mateusz Morawiecki, who have formed the Rozwój Plus association and are building a new party. Relations between the two camps recently deteriorated sharply over the election of a deputy speaker of the Sejm (the lower chamber - ed.). Morawiecki’s allies did not support PiS politician Marcin Ociepa, and Marcin Horała, representing Rozwój Plus, was elected deputy speaker instead.

Relations between PiS and Confederation have been strained for some time. Since the presidential election, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński has repeatedly criticized Confederation, and one of its leaders, Sławomir Mentzen, in particular. Mentzen has responded in kind.

Confederation itself wants to avoid a situation in which Jarosław Kaczyński becomes the dominant player in negotiations over a Senate pact. Its politicians are therefore placing their hopes in President Karol Nawrocki as the patron of any potential agreement.

The Braun problem

The Confederation of the Polish Crown has been building its political independence since Grzegorz Braun decided to run in the presidential election. He did so despite Confederation’s earlier decision to field Sławomir Mentzen as its candidate. After Braun announced his presidential bid, he and his allies were expelled from Confederation Liberty and Independence. Until then, the alliance had brought together Braun’s party, Mentzen’s New Hope and the National Movement led by Krzysztof Bosak.

Also read: A motley crew of extremes: Who are Grzegorz Braun’s people?

The Confederation of the Polish Crown is the hardest piece of the puzzle to fit into place. Its anti-Western and pro-Russian views are a deterrent for PiS. Mariusz Błaszczak, head of the PiS parliamentary caucus, recently told Wirtualna Polska that the party ruled out cooperation with Grzegorz Braun. He criticized Braun for statements denying German crimes committed during the Second World War. He also said Braun’s behavior was damaging to Poland.

Błaszczak also acknowledged that negotiations over a Senate pact would be conducted by the circle around President Karol Nawrocki.

Marcin Horała has also commented on the prospect of working with Braun’s party. The Rozwój Plus politician told TVN last week that he ruled out a coalition and a government with Braun, but did not rule out a Senate pact based on parties refraining from fielding candidates in selected constituencies.

Horała said he would have no problem with figures such as Sławomir Zawiślak, an MP from the Confederation of the Polish Crown who spent more than 20 years in PiS. People such as Sebastian Pitoń, however, would be more problematic. The activist, who is close to Braun, has made no secret of his pro-Russian sympathies.

Braun outside the pact?

In early September, President Karol Nawrocki said the strategy for a Senate pact was being refined. He announced that he would probably present “those political groupings that will contest the parliamentary election” at the beginning of 2027. He added that he hoped the Senate would include political forces ready to discuss Poland’s future.

Soon afterward, the Presidential Palace sent an important signal about the shape of a potential right-wing Senate pact. Presidential minister Wojciech Kolarski, speaking to Tok FM, ruled out cooperation with Grzegorz Braun within such an agreement. He justified the position by pointing out that President Nawrocki is wanted in Russia under an arrest warrant, while Braun promotes pro-Russian views.

Roman Fritz, an MP and spokesman for the Confederation of the Polish Crown, responded quickly. He issued a statement declaring that Grzegorz Braun’s party would field Senate candidates in all 100 constituencies.

“The position of the Presidential Palace is now clear. Since there is no willingness to create a broad, pro-independence agreement for the Senate, we have no choice but to prepare to fight on our own. [...] We do not intend to ask anyone for a seat at the table. We will consistently build our own representation and present Poles with candidates who will not be hostages to party arrangements,” MP Roman Fritz wrote.

Confederation’s concerns

Mentzen and Bosak’s Confederation is not indifferent to this. Although their former ally’s party is now competing with them for voters to the right of PiS, they do not believe a pact can succeed without Braun.

Speaking on Bogdan Rymanowski’s channel, Sławomir Mentzen ruled out a pact without Braun. He said taking control of the Senate would not be possible unless all right-wing parties polling above the electoral threshold participated.

Splitting the vote

The latest poll shows support rising for Grzegorz Braun’s party. In a United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, the Confederation of the Polish Crown consolidated its position in fourth place. It was backed by 10.9% of respondents, an increase of 4.1 percentage points compared with the previous survey.

The gap separating it from Mentzen and Bosak’s Confederation is small. Their party came third with 12.9%. The combined support for the two parties is higher than the figure recorded by PiS. Jarosław Kaczyński’s party was backed by 17.2% of respondents. Rozwój Plus, another potential member of the pact, also clears the threshold, with 5.3% support.

It should be emphasized, however, that the poll measures support among voters in a Sejm election rather than a Senate election, where fewer seats are available and fewer candidates stand. Such polls nevertheless provide a snapshot of the level of support for individual political groupings at a given moment.

Confederation therefore wants to avoid a situation in which a pact is formed without the Confederation of the Polish Crown. If Braun fields candidates in all 100 constituencies, this would split the votes of conservative voters opposing the Senate pact formed by the current governing coalition.

Possible scenarios for the right

The parties now in government have already won Senate elections twice using the Senate pact formula. They are unlikely to abandon it if the right is considering a similar move. Several possible scenarios are therefore emerging.

One conceivable option would see PiS politicians reluctantly accept an agreement with Grzegorz Braun’s party. In that case, a Senate pact would not necessarily imply a future coalition or the formation of a joint government if right-wing parties managed to secure a majority in the next Sejm.

Controversial figures from Braun’s camp whom PiS and Rozwój Plus could not support could instead run on Sejm lists. The other participants in the pact would field rival lists there. This could increase their chances of posing a serious challenge to the current governing coalition while also taking control of the Senate.

If Braun does not abandon his plan to field candidates in all 100 constituencies, conservative votes will be split. That would make it easier for candidates backed by the parties currently in government to win Senate seats.

Such a scenario cannot be ruled out, even if Braun’s party itself would stand to gain little in the contest for Senate seats. Grzegorz Braun and the Confederation of the Polish Crown attract rebellious and anti-establishment voters. They also attract voters disappointed with PiS. Braun must consider whether a Senate arrangement with PiS would be received negatively by part of his electorate.

The leader of the Confederation of the Polish Crown is an individualist who may find it difficult to accommodate the leaders of other parties. Much of his public activity is built around scandals and political stunts. That is his political comfort zone.

Bringing a larger political representation into the Sejm — his parliamentary group currently has three MPs — would strengthen his political position, but would not necessarily require him to assume governing responsibility. In public appearances, Braun himself has said that he would like to create a blocking minority in the next parliament. He may not need an arrangement with his right-wing rivals to achieve that.

Key Takeaways

1. The Polish right is riven by tensions. Following the split in PiS, relations remain strained between Jarosław Kaczyński’s party and Mateusz Morawiecki’s new movement. Tensions have also persisted for some time between the PiS leadership and Confederation. PiS and Rozwój Plus do not want Grzegorz Braun’s party included in a Senate pact, while Sławomir Mentzen cannot envisage such a pact without it. In response to opposition from PiS and the Presidential Palace, the Confederation of the Polish Crown has announced that it will field its own candidates in all 100 Senate constituencies. A new round of talks on a pact could begin early next year at the initiative of President Karol Nawrocki.
2. A Senate pact would involve the parties agreeing which of them should field candidates in individual constituencies, with the other participants refraining from running their own candidates there. If the right reaches an agreement, it would have a greater chance of taking control of the Senate in next year’s election.
3. If the right-wing parties fail to agree and field rival candidates in single-member Senate constituencies, the conservative and anti-government vote will be split. That would increase the chances of candidates backed by the current governing coalition winning Senate seats.