This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
On January 6th the market was caught off guard by news that InPost had received an offer from investors interested in acquiring the company. Neither the identity of the potential buyer nor the price on offer was disclosed. Even so, investors erupted into euphoria and rushed to buy the stock. In a single day the share price jumped by nearly 30%, reaching its highest level since June.
That surge delivered a painful lesson to funds betting against InPost. According to estimates by XYZ, they lost PLN 0.5 billion in a single day, with losses mounting in the days that followed. Then came silence on the prospective takeover. Among conspiracy-minded observers, this only fueled a narrative that no serious bid existed – and that the episode was merely a maneuver to squeeze short sellers.
What price is the consortium offering for InPost?
On February 9th it became clear just how wrong the skeptics had been. All the cards were laid on the table when the consortium interested in acquiring all the shares of InPost Group was revealed. It comprises the private-equity firm Advent International; A&R Investments, an investment company founded by Rafał Brzoska; PPF, a Czech investment holding company; and FedEx Corporation, the global logistics giant.
The consortium is offering EUR 15.6 per share. That is well above the current market price, which stood at EUR 13.38 at Friday’s close. It also represents a premium of more than 50% over the average share price in the six months preceding the submission of the offer in early January. In effect, the bid values InPost at EUR 7.8 billion (PLN 32.9 billion).
“We are confident that the offer provides shareholders with an attractive opportunity for immediate and certain value realization at a significant premium. We believe the transaction lays solid foundations for the continued development of InPost Group. The consortium brings expertise and experience, a long-term investment horizon, and full support for the Group’s growth strategy. We are convinced that the offer is in the best interests of the company and all its stakeholders. That is why the members of the management board and the supervisory board have unanimously endorsed it,” said Hein Pretorius, chairman of InPost Group’s supervisory board and head of the special committee that in recent weeks reviewed the offer and considered alternative development scenarios for the company.
Over the past year, 16 analysts have issued recommendations on InPost shares. Fifteen advise “buy,” while one recommends “hold.” The average target price stands at EUR 16.74 per share.
Who wants to take over InPost? The balance of power within the consortium
According to information disclosed by the consortium, the transaction is expected to be completed in the second half of the year. The minimum objective is to acquire 80% of the shares. In practice, the investors already control most of that stake. Consortium members together hold more than 47.7% of the shares (with PPF owning 28.75%, A&R 12.49%, and Advent 6.5%).
If the deal goes through, the balance of power within the company will shift markedly. Advent and FedEx would each hold 37% of the shares, A&R Investments 16%, and PPF 10%. This would mean that Advent and Rafał Brzoska’s investment vehicle increase their stakes, while the Czech group PPF exits. A new shareholder in the InPost Group would be the American logistics giant FedEx.
The consortium will contribute EUR 5.9 billion in cash to finance the acquisition, with the remainder provided by a broad syndicate of banks in the form of long-term loans.
What’s next for InPost and Rafał Brzoska
FedEx’s investment in InPost, however, should not be mistaken for a takeover. The American giant will hold the same stake as Advent and therefore will not have a majority or consolidate InPost’s results. The company will retain full independence. Its headquarters will remain in Poland, the existing management team and brand will stay unchanged, and Rafał Brzoska will continue as chief executive.
The founder of InPost argues that bringing in new partners will help “support the company’s next stage of development, including the continuation of its expansion across European markets.”
“Working with financial and strategic investors who understand our business and the specifics of the industry, and who have an investment horizon that allows for long-term value creation, gives us access to the knowledge, stability, and resources needed to capitalize on favorable market trends,” says Mr. Brzoska. These include the growing penetration of e-commerce, rising consumer expectations around quality – particularly speed and convenience – and the shift toward more sustainable delivery models. He adds that he “will remain fully committed to leading the InPost Group in the years ahead.”
So what are InPost’s plans under this new ownership structure?
“We will strengthen our network and reach more consumers by offering fast and flexible delivery options, while continuing to pursue our goal of redefining the European e-commerce sector,” Mr. Brzoska says. “I believe that with the support of our partners we can fully unlock InPost’s potential and further reinforce our position as a leading provider of innovative services for the e-commerce sector in Western Europe.”
What are FedEx’s plans for InPost?
The most electrifying aspect of the transaction is the entry of FedEx Corporation – the global logistics behemoth – into the Polish company. The US-based group serves around 3 million corporate customers and some 225 million recipients worldwide. It is also present in Poland, though so far with limited success: its market share there does not exceed a few percent.
“We operate a global logistics network that powers the world economy, while InPost Group has an established position in Europe’s out-of-home delivery segment,” says Raj Subramaniam, president and chief executive of FedEx Corporation. “Following completion of the transaction, we plan to enter into commercial agreements with InPost. These will allow us to provide our customers with access to InPost Group’s last-mile B2C delivery offering. At the same time, we will leverage FedEx’s global network and logistics know-how to support the next phase of InPost’s development.”
It is easy to infer that these agreements will give FedEx customers access to InPost’s parcel lockers. In return, InPost will be able to tap into the American group’s logistics network across Europe.
FedEx is part of the global “big three” in logistics, alongside DHL and UPS – the latter its long-standing rival in the United States. For years, FedEx lagged behind, but more recently it has begun to claw back market share at home. Under a new strategy – described by analysts as aggressive – the company has turned its focus to Europe, divested parts of its traditional business, and stepped up investment in innovation. It is implementing cost-cutting measures in France and building a large logistics hub near Legnica, south-western Poland, designed to operate with a high degree of automation.
InPost fits neatly into this strategy. FedEx has traditionally focused on business shipments, largely air freight, rather than mass parcel deliveries to retail customers. It is a leader in overnight air services. Yet under its new strategy, the company has promised investors double-digit revenue growth in e-commerce – and it is InPost that is expected to help deliver that ambition.
“Our investment in InPost reflects our approach to capital allocation and long-term value creation,” Mr. Subramaniam adds. “Together with InPost’s management and Advent, we see a clear path to creating new growth opportunities for FedEx, improving the efficiency of last-mile B2C operations, and delivering an even higher level of service to customers across Europe.”
Advent steps into the same river twice
One of the biggest surprises is Advent’s sizable investment. This is a fund that first backed InPost in 2017, effectively rescuing the company from collapse. It initially put up PLN 340 million to buy out the company’s shares from the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It then increased its commitment to more than PLN 0.5 billion by refinancing InPost’s debt.
The payoff came in January 2021, when InPost made a spectacular debut on the Amsterdam stock exchange at a valuation of EUR 8 billion. Advent was among the sellers in the IPO, offloading shares at EUR 16 apiece and pocketing a substantial portion of the EUR 2.8 billion in proceeds. After the listing, it steadily reduced its exposure.
In mid-2023, Advent sold a 15% stake in InPost to the Czech holding company PPF at EUR 10 per share. In September 2024, it disposed of 20 million shares, raising EUR 370 million. Then, in June 2025, it sold another 17.5 million shares at EUR 13.25 each. Just as its final exit seemed only a matter of time, the fund decided to commit billions once again to buying InPost stock – a highly unusual move in the private-equity world.
“InPost is reshaping Europe’s e-commerce landscape,” says Ranjan Sen, a partner at Advent International. “We are pleased to enter into a strategic partnership with FedEx Corporation, a global leader in logistics, which will help accelerate the growth of InPost Group. Building on our strengths in logistics, technology, and consumer solutions, we will support the current strategy – including the expansion of the parcel-locker network, deeper cooperation with business partners, and further improvements to the consumer offering. We look forward to working with Rafał Brzoska, the management team, and our partners in the consortium.” Mr. Sen stresses that this is a long-term investment for the fund.
The Czechs cash in
The Czech group PPF will remain a shareholder, but as part of the transaction it is selling the bulk of its stake. The structure of the deal makes clear that recent speculation suggesting that Renáta Kellnerová, the Czech billionaire, is calling the shots at InPost Group has little to do with reality.
At the same time, PPF’s investment in the company led by Rafał Brzoska has proved highly profitable. The Czechs bought shares at EUR 10 and are selling them at EUR 15.6, generating a gain of more than 50% in less than three years.
“We consider the offer presented to be attractive and therefore intend to respond positively,” says Didier Stoessel, chief executive of PPF Group. “We will sell a significant portion of our shareholding, thereby supporting the completion of the transaction. At the same time, we are pleased to declare our continued support for the company as a minority investor as InPost enters a new phase of development.”
Key Takeaways
- A consortium of investors - Advent International, Rafał Brzoska’s A&R Investments, FedEx, and PPF - has submitted a takeover bid for InPost at EUR 15.6 per share, valuing the company at roughly PLN 33 billion (EUR 7.8 billion). The offer represents a premium of more than 50% over the average share price over the past six months.
- Rafał Brzoska is increasing his stake and will remain the company’s long-term leader. InPost’s headquarters will stay in Poland, with no changes to the brand or the core management team.
- Through its partnership with FedEx, InPost will gain access to a global logistics network, facilitating expansion into Western markets. At the same time, FedEx’s customers will gain access to InPost’s parcel-locker network and the know-how needed to scale last-mile delivery operations.
We reported on this because we considered the information both important and of interest to our readers. In the interest of full transparency, we note that the RiO fund, owned by Rafał Brzoska – the chief executive and a shareholder of InPost – is an investor in XYZ.