Are we closing the gap with EU countries in life expectancy?

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

When assessing a country’s level of prosperity, economists typically focus on GDP per capita. As the well-known development economist Lant Pritchett has pointed out, GDP per capita is strongly correlated with other indicators that we associate with a better life. Countries with higher GDP per capita tend to have longer life expectancy, lower infant mortality, greater life satisfaction, better educational outcomes, and more extensive civil rights and freedoms.

In the analysis below, I present – through a series of charts – one dimension closely associated with prosperity: health. I focus on two aspects in particular: life expectancy and the subjective assessment of health status.

1. Poland still lags behind EU countries in life expectancy

Life expectancy at birth is a measure that estimates how many years, on average, a newborn child would live if current mortality rates were to remain unchanged throughout their lifetime.

For this reason, it is a conservative indicator based on present-day data. It does not incorporate an implicit component linked to medical technological progress, improving sanitary conditions, or healthier lifestyles (such as reduced alcohol or tobacco consumption). Paradoxically, one might expect that the average newborn will live longer than current life expectancy figures suggest – provided, of course, that no catastrophic events, wars, or pandemics occur along the way.

In Poland, life expectancy at birth reached 78.5 years in 2024. That is nearly three years less than the EU average (81.4 years). All countries below the EU average are either fully or partially part of the former communist bloc (such as East Germany, now part of unified Germany). Within this group, Poland sits roughly in the middle – trailing Czechia by 1.6 years and ahead of Romania by two years.

Interestingly, in Southern European countries such as Spain, Italy, France, and Greece, life expectancy is higher than would be expected based on GDP per capita alone.

2. The good news? Poland is converging with EU countries

We have repeatedly written about Poland’s rapid catch-up with EU countries in terms of GDP per capita. Does a similar process take place in life expectancy? The chart below illustrates this question.

As can be seen, EU countries that started with lower life expectancy have, on average, recorded higher gains over the past 34 years. Poland sits almost exactly on the trend line (slightly above it), which indicates ongoing convergence. We have closed the gap by two years relative to Germany and by three years relative to the Netherlands.

Some countries have performed better than Poland, others worse. In Czechia, life expectancy increased more than in Poland (by 8.6 years), although its starting point in 1990 was higher. At the other end of the spectrum is Bulgaria, where life expectancy increased the least in the entire EU.

3. Self-assessed health is correlated with life expectancy

As noted earlier, life expectancy is based on current mortality statistics. However, most deaths occur among older people – those born in the 1950s or 1960s, i.e., before the period of economic transformation. Can we say anything about how large the change will be for future generations?

Some insight can be drawn from self-assessed health, which is surveyed annually across the EU. Respondents in member states evaluate their health on a five-point scale, ranging from “very good” to “very bad.”

The obvious limitation is subjectivity. But are these assessments correlated with hard health outcomes such as life expectancy? In the chart below, we aggregate the share of respondents aged 65 and over who report their health as “very good” or “good,” and compare it with life expectancy statistics.

The correlation is clear. The better the self-assessed health, the higher the life expectancy. Poland records a similar share of positive responses as Romania (which has lower life expectancy) and Czechia (which has higher life expectancy).

The Baltic states and Portugal deviate most strongly from the trend line (on the negative side). In these countries, health is assessed more poorly than their life expectancy would suggest. Detailed 2024 data for EU countries are shown below.

4. The income gap in self-perceived health is smaller than in other countries in the region

Eurostat data allow respondents to be broken down by income. The chart below shows the gap in health self-assessments among people aged 65+ between those in the lowest income quintile (bottom 20 percent) and those in the highest income quintile (top 20 percent) across EU countries.

In Poland, 21 percent of respondents in the lowest-income group rate their health as good or very good, while among higher-income respondents the share rises to 41 percent.

This gap is smaller than in other countries in the region. For comparison, Czechia and Bulgaria report similar results for the bottom 20 percent, but about 10 percentage points higher for the top 20 percent. In this respect, Poland is closer to Romania and Croatia.

5. Across age groups, Poland is converging toward the EU average in self-assessed health

The next chart shows how Poles rated their health compared with the EU average across different age groups. As recently as 2010, people aged 55–64, for example, assessed their health similarly to the 65+ group in the EU. A similar shift was visible among those aged 45–54.

Over the past 15 years, there has been a marked convergence in self-perceived health between Poland and the EU average. The largest gap remains among older age groups: for people aged 65+, it has narrowed from 21 percentage points to 12, while in the 55–64 group it has fallen from 23 percentage points to just 6 percentage points. In younger cohorts, the initial gap has already closed entirely or Poland has even moved ahead of the EU average.

This suggests that convergence with EU countries in life expectancy is likely to continue in Poland.

6. Young people already report better health than the EU average

It is also interesting to compare self-assessed health by gender. Women are more likely than men to rate their health as worse, despite their persistent advantage in life expectancy. This pattern holds both in Poland and across the EU, although in Poland the gender gap in health perception is smaller.

In older age groups, both Polish women and men assess their health more negatively than their European peers. Among younger people, however, they report significantly better health than the EU average.

The most significant improvement in health perception is visible among younger cohorts, which have nearly converged with the EU average in self-assessed health, while older generations continue to lag behind. Income-related differences in Poland are smaller than in parts of the region, suggesting relatively lower health inequality. As generational replacement continues, further gains in life expectancy and gradual convergence toward the EU average can be expected.
Poland remains below the EU average in both life expectancy and self-assessed health, but the gap is gradually narrowing. At the same time, several Southern European countries outperform what their income levels would suggest, highlighting that beyond GDP, lifestyle and social factors also play an important role.
Since the early 1990s, Poland has been catching up with EU countries in terms of life expectancy. We have closed part of the gap with Western Europe, although some countries in the region, such as Czechia, have improved faster, while others, such as Bulgaria, have lagged significantly. This indicates that convergence is ongoing but not automatic, and depends on health policies and lifestyle choices.