Closing the gap: Poland’s path toward EU income convergence

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Since 1995, Poland has made clear strides toward the EU’s average standard of living. GDP per capita, measured in purchasing power parity, rose from around 44% of the EU average to 79% in 2024. In its autumn 2025 forecast, the European Commission projected that by 2027 this figure would reach 83.7%. This would imply relatively rapid growth for Poland in 2025–2027, even as the broader EU economy expands more slowly.

The fastest pace of catch-up came in the decade following EU accession. Between 2005 and 2015, Poland’s relative GDP per capita rose from about 52% to nearly 70% of the EU average. Growth in the following decade was slower, yet still significant – according to Commission estimates, reaching around 80.5%. The actual level may be slightly higher, given that GDP growth in 2025 exceeded forecasts.

The slowdown in convergence compared with 2005–2015 is unsurprising. As Poland narrows the gap toward the technological frontier, innovation becomes more important than imitation. At the same time, institutional reforms had their greatest impact in the pre- and early-accession period. In 2005, Poland ranked 70th in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index; ten years later it was 29th. By 2025, it stood at 52nd, even as the number of countries evaluated had increased.

Another 15 years of the “Golden Age”

What will the convergence process look like in the coming decades? I conducted the following exercise. To assess Poland’s potential trajectory, I applied a simple assumption: the 2027 forecast for GDP in purchasing power parity was extended using the European Commission’s 2024 Ageing Report projections for per capita GDP growth, which run through 2070.

In the short and medium term, the projections are favorable. Relative GDP per capita could rise from around 81% in 2025 to roughly 95% by 2035 – the largest percentage-point increase among EU countries. In such a scenario, Poland would surpass Italy, France, and Spain in per capita GDP.

The peak relative level compared with the EU average would arrive around 2042, when GDP per capita approaches parity with the EU average. Yet the period that follows will be crucial.

The end of catching up with the wealthiest EU countries

After 2042, under the assumptions applied, the convergence process slows. Relative GDP per capita stabilizes in the 96–98% range of the EU average through 2070. In this scenario, Poland does not catch up with countries such as Germany, Denmark, or the Netherlands.

It should be emphasized, however, that these results are sensitive to the assumptions made. Long-term projections depend on assumptions about demographics, labor supply, and the pace of technological progress. For this reason, it is more appropriate to treat them as an analytical exercise rather than a forecast.

Growth brakes: Demographics, productivity, and institutions

One of the factors that has supported Poland’s convergence so far was the demographic dividend – the rising share of working-age people in the population. In the coming decades, this factor will work in the opposite direction. According to the European Commission, the growth rate of total hours worked in Poland will be negative throughout the projection horizon, reaching around –1.2% per year in 2045–2050.

As Poland approaches the technological frontier, productivity convergence is also slowing. In the Commission’s projection, this translates into a decline in total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Poland. Similarly, capital per worker is expected to accumulate more slowly.

The Ageing Report assumptions include, among other things, rising labor force participation among older workers, driven by longer healthy life expectancy and pension reforms in many EU countries. Poland has not implemented such measures. As a result, by 2070, projected labor force participation for people aged 55–64 in Poland is around 62%, compared with 75% in the EU. Raising the retirement age for women could affect this trajectory, but it remains politically challenging.

There are many other assumptions embedded in the projections. They presume a certain fertility rate and TFP convergence across countries through 2070, each with inherent uncertainty. Nevertheless, below I also show relative per capita GDP across EU countries in 2070 – though these results should be treated with caution.

The projected decline in the working-age population will weigh on Poland’s potential GDP growth. At the same time, slowing productivity growth as the country nears the technological frontier requires a shift from an imitation-based model to one driven by innovation. The scale and direction of reforms – especially in technology, the labor market, and the pension system – will therefore be decisive in determining whether Poland can sustainably surpass the EU average or remain just below it.
Since the mid-1990s, Poland has nearly doubled its relative GDP per capita compared with the EU average, rising from 44% to 79% in 2024. The decade following EU accession was the period of fastest catch-up. Growth between 2015 and 2025 slowed slightly but remained impressive.
An “exercise” based on European Commission projections suggests that Poland could approach 95–100% of the EU average within a couple of decades. However, after reaching this threshold, further catch-up may stall, and relative GDP could stabilize slightly below the EU average. In this scenario, Poland would overtake some large Southern European economies but would not catch up with the most advanced Northern countries.