This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart Poland’s real gross domestic product (GDP), unadjusted for seasonal effects, rose by 3.5% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. This marks a slowdown compared with the previous quarter, when GDP growth stood at 4%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP increased by 0.6%.
Statistics Poland (GUS) slightly revised upward its so-called flash estimate published in mid-May, which had indicated GDP growth of 3.4% year on year. The more detailed data released on 1 June provide a clearer picture of economic developments at the beginning of the year.
Private consumption slows, public spending supports the economy
Private consumption remained the largest contributor to GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026. The contribution from household consumption amounted to 2 percentage points, broadly in line with the previous two quarters, when it ranged between 2 and 2.1 percentage points.
In year-on-year terms, based on non-seasonally adjusted data, private consumption increased by 3.2%, down from 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This remains a solid reading, though weaker than at the end of last year. It confirms the picture emerging from retail sales data: consumer demand continues to provide meaningful support to the economy, but its pace is gradually easing.
Public consumption also made a significant contribution to growth. Its contribution amounted to 1.2 percentage points, while growth reached 6.3% year on year. This reflects the impact of elevated public spending, which is also visible in the expected general government deficit of around 6–7% of GDP. Public expenditure therefore continued to underpin economic growth.
Investment and net exports
Investment also had a positive impact on GDP growth for the third consecutive quarter. However, its scale was lower than in previous quarters, when its contribution ranged between 1.1 and 1.5 percentage points. In the first quarter of 2026, gross fixed capital formation increased by 3% year on year. Investment activity was negatively affected, among other factors, by an unusually harsh winter.
The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was slightly negative at minus 0.2 percentage points. Exports increased by 5.8% over the period, while imports rose by 6%.
XYZ Perspective
GDP slowed quite noticeably in the first quarter, although it continues to stand out positively compared with other EU countries. This is illustrated in the chart below.
Interactive chart What can be expected in the coming quarters? Given its share in GDP, the key factor will be the pace of private consumption growth. Despite a surprisingly strong reading for May, inflation is likely to rise in the months ahead. Over time, the energy shock may feed through into higher food prices, among other channels, including increased transport costs. This is particularly relevant, as food prices were one of the factors that dampened inflation in May.
Rising prices will gradually erode households’ purchasing power. At the same time, wage growth has clearly weakened in recent months. As a result, the first quarter of 2026 may turn out to be the period of the strongest real income growth for the entire year. This will weigh on the pace of consumption growth.
A counterbalance to weaker consumer demand may come from the growing scale of public investment financed, among others, by the National Recovery Plan (KPO) and the SAFE program. The key question, however, is whether and to what extent this will translate into higher private sector investment.