Has Poland simply been lucky, or has it built genuine resilience to crises? Historical data show that after the dramatic downturn at the turn of the 1970s and 1980s, the Polish economy recovered faster than its regional peers. Since 1995, it has experienced some of the rarest and shallowest declines in GDP per capita worldwide. Where does this stability come from, and what are its limits?
Poland ranks among the global leaders in lowest fertility. In 2024, the total fertility rate fell to a historic low of 1.1. Yet this is not a uniquely Polish problem. Nearly all major economies – from China and Germany to the United States – are recording rates below the level needed for generational replacement. How is the fertility crisis unfolding, what is driving it, and is there anything that can be done to reverse it?
The weakening of the dollar has emerged in recent days as one of the most important developments on financial markets. From the zloty’s perspective, this is a continuation of a trend that has been visible – with interruptions – since the second half of 2022. On balance, this is a positive development for the Polish economy, although it also comes with certain risks.
Poland’s household savings rate rose for the 14th consecutive quarter in the third quarter of 2025. According to data released by Eurostat, it reached 10.2%. That is already 4 percentage points above the pre-pandemic average.
Retail sales at constant prices rose by 5.3% year on year in December 2025, Statistics Poland (GUS) reported. This is a very strong result, confirming that consumers remain in good financial shape and have both the willingness and the capacity to increase spending.
Poland’s real GDP expanded by 3.6% in 2025, according to preliminary data released by Statistics Poland (GUS). At the same time, Eurostat provided a first estimate for the entire European Union, showing growth of 1.6% for the year. This means the gap between Poland’s growth and the EU average was 2 percentage points – exactly the same as the average since 2010. The pace at which Poland is catching up with the EU economy shows no signs of slowing.
Wage growth is the main driver of rising consumption. Over the past three years, consumption has grown more slowly than wages, as households have increased their propensity to save. What will happen this year? An analysis by XYZ's economist.
December data delivered a clear surprise: wage growth in the enterprise sector accelerated to 8.6% year on year, well above market expectations. With inflation running at 2.4%, this translates into a robust real wage increase of around 6%, boosting consumers’ purchasing power and potentially supporting a short-term economic pickup.
Poland’s manufacturing sector ended 2025 in robust shape, with a marked acceleration in output toward the end of the year. Crucially, the recovery is no longer driven solely by investment goods and is beginning to extend to consumer goods as well. Data from Statistics Poland (GUS), together with steadily improving business sentiment, suggest that 2026 could bring a further strengthening of economic conditions.
Marek Skawiński 
Michał Kulbacki 
