This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Statistics Poland (GUS) thus confirmed its so-called “flash estimate” published in mid-February. More detailed data, however, allow for a deeper understanding of the forces shaping the economy.
Interactive chart Private consumption accelerates, public spending provides support
Private consumption remained the largest contributor to GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the contribution from household consumption (2.1% year-on-year) was roughly in line with the previous quarter (2% year-on-year). On a year-on-year, seasonally unadjusted basis, private consumption reached 4.2%, up from 3.5% in the third quarter. This strong performance aligns with trends observed in retail sales data.
Public consumption also made a significant contribution to growth, expanding by 1.7% year-on-year. Its pace of growth was as high as 7.3% year-on-year, reflecting the projected high deficit in the government and local government sector – around 6–7% of GDP. Public spending, therefore, continued to support GDP growth – a pattern particularly pronounced in 2024, which eased somewhat in the first half of 2025.
Investments and net exports
For the second consecutive quarter, investments contributed positively to GDP growth. The scale of the contribution was similar to the previous quarter, around 1%. Year-on-year, investments rose by 4.7% in the fourth quarter. However, the increase fell short of market expectations, likely reflecting delays in the disbursement of funds from the National Recovery Plan (KPO).
The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was slightly negative in the fourth quarter, at -0.2%. Exports grew by 7.7% over the period, while imports rose faster, by 8.7%.
The XYZ perspective
Poland’s GDP growth of 3.6% in 2025 places the country among the top performers in the European Union. The most significant driver of GDP was private consumption, which accounts for more than half of total output. For the first time in two years, its share of GDP increased, from 56.3% to 56.9%.
The main reason was a marked rise in households’ real incomes. Yet the share of consumption in GDP remains below its 2022 level (57.1%). The acceleration over the past two quarters is encouraging, even in light of expected slower real-wage growth in 2026.
Throughout 2025, the investment rate remained largely unchanged, despite the government declaring the year a “breakthrough” for investment. The investment rate stood at 17.03% of GDP, virtually the same as in 2024 (17.03%). Growth in this area is expected this year, driven by the implementation of projects under the National Recovery Plan (KPO). In recent years, GDP growth has been supported by public consumption. Its share of GDP rose from 18.9% in 2023 to 21.3% - an increase of 2.4 percentage points.
Interactive chart Between 2014 and 2023, the share of public consumption in GDP was relatively stable, ranging from 17.5% to 18.9%. This illustrates that higher deficits in the government and local government sector have played a notable role in supporting growth. Divergent trajectories for investment and public consumption are shown in the chart above.