Increase consumption or boost savings? The dilemma facing households in 2026

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Consumer sentiment remains very strong, according to the November economic survey conducted by Poland Statistics (GUS). The current consumer confidence index stood at -9.9 points, while the leading economic indicator came in at -7.5 points. The first indicator fell slightly, while the second rose modestly. However, more important than the numbers themselves is how they compare to historical readings.

Consumer sentiment – particularly current sentiment – remains at its highest level since the pandemic. This is translating into increased consumption across the economy. At present, consumption is the main driver of growth in the Polish economy.

2025: consumption and savings go up

The current and previous years have been exceptional for households in one important respect. On the income side, wages have grown at a very rapid pace – in both the private sector and public sector. On the expenditure side, inflation has fallen sharply and prices have stabilized. These two combined phenomena have driven a very rapid increase in real wages, meaning inflation-adjusted income. The real increase in average wages in 2024 reached 9.5%.

This has allowed consumers to increase both their consumption (including durable goods) and their savings simultaneously. The data bears this out. Retail sales in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Spending on durable goods grew particularly strongly. Sales of cars, motorcycles, and parts rose by 9.1%, while sales of household equipment jumped 14.7%.

The household savings rate has also grown rapidly. In Q2 2025 (the latest available data), it stood at 9.7% according to Eurostat. This represents a 50% increase over the 2016-2019 average of 6.2%.

The consumer dilemma in 2026: save or spend?

This extraordinary growth in real income is coming to an end. Next year, real wage growth will slow considerably. In Q3 2025, it fell to around 5%, and in 2026 it may decelerate further to approximately 3.5-4%.

With such growth rates, consumers will face a dilemma: whether to continue increasing their consumption or their savings. Falling interest rates will push consumption up and savings down. Lower rates will translate into increased demand for credit and boost the real income of households that already carry debt. Meanwhile, yields on deposits and bonds will fall, even as households have already recovered the savings eroded by inflation.

However, the scale of the inflationary shock in recent years may drive households to save even more. The combination of sharp price increases followed by steep interest rate hikes may have made households more risk-averse.

Data from Poland Statistics’ economic climate survey indicate that savings are taking precedence over higher consumption. The net percentage of households planning to save over the next 12 months has increased significantly. In contrast, the percentage planning to make major purchases has remained relatively stable for nearly two years. Consumption will continue to grow in Poland, but the propensity to save will determine the pace of this growth. For now, households are signaling their intention to save more. However, these are stated intentions, not actual behavior. If this materializes, consumption growth may moderate slightly, especially in the second half of 2026, when consumers begin to feel the effects of lower real income growth.

Consumer sentiment remains very strong, and the high level of current confidence is supporting consumption growth, which remains the main driver of the Polish economy.
The years 2024–2025 have been exceptionally favorable for households: rapid wage growth and declining inflation have enabled them to increase spending while raising the savings rate to its highest level in years.
In 2026, consumers will face a dilemma: spend or save, as real income growth decelerates. Lower interest rates may boost consumption, but the experience of high inflation has increased caution. The direction households take will determine the pace of consumption growth in 2026.