This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Statistics Poland (GUS) has released industrial and construction output figures for September. The results for industry are encouraging. Output rose by 3.3% year on year in constant prices, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations. Construction performed considerably worse, with seasonally adjusted construction and assembly output falling by 7.2% year on year in real terms.
Interactive chart The scale of this divergence becomes even clearer when we compare activity in both sectors with the beginning of 2022. Over the past 12 months, industrial output was, on average, 13% higher than at the start of 2022, while construction and assembly output was up by just 2.5%.
Construction's persistent weakness
What explains such a large gap between these two parts of the economy? Rising industrial production may partly reflect a recovery in investment demand from domestic and foreign companies, as well as stronger domestic consumer demand.
Construction output, meanwhile, depends heavily on the scale of infrastructure investment and conditions in the property market. One of its most important segments, residential construction, is showing signs of stabilization. According to National Bank of Poland (NBP) data, apartment prices in the largest cities generally recorded only modest year-on-year increases in the second quarter of 2026, although growth varied by city and market segment.
Demand remains broadly stable, while the number of apartments offered by developers continues to rise. As a result, developers have less incentive to launch new projects. In September, output among companies involved in building construction plunged by 19.5% year on year.
Investment plans face uncertainty
Construction's weakness is not confined to residential and commercial buildings. Activity has also declined across other segments of the industry. Output among companies involved in civil engineering projects fell by 4.1% year on year, while specialized construction activities contracted by 6.1%.
Meanwhile, announcements of major infrastructure investments have dominated public debate for months. Port Polska, an investment programme being implemented by Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK), a nuclear power plant, high-speed rail, upgrades to existing railway lines, the expansion and modernization of electricity transmission networks, and small nuclear reactors – the list is long.
Why has the promised investment boom yet to show up in the data? Because many projects are still in the planning stages or are only just beginning to move into implementation.
The long-awaited surge in investment has yet to materialize. The crucial question is whether all the announced projects can be delivered as planned and on schedule. Dariusz Blocher, chairman of Unibep's supervisory board and former long-serving CEO of Budimex (two major contructions players – ed.), recently discussed these challenges in an interview with XYZ.
First, large and complex infrastructure projects take many years to complete and are vulnerable to delays, as Port Polska illustrates. Second, financing could become a problem, given the significant reliance on EU funds. The shape of the EU's next budget remains uncertain, but there is a risk that less funding will be available for such investments. At the same time, Poland's national budget is already severely stretched, leaving limited room to finance additional large-scale projects.
The construction industry has already experienced one recent disappointment involving Poland's National Recovery Plan (KPO). The sector had hoped that a substantial share of the funding would flow into construction projects. Instead, considerable resources were also allocated to new machinery and technologies, which did not translate directly into a comparable increase in construction output. Could the much-anticipated wave of major infrastructure investments meet a similar fate?