PiS at war with itself

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

For months, tensions have been simmering within Law and Justice (PiS). Any potential split, however, would be risky both for the party itself and for would-be breakaway factions.

Internal strife in PiS has been boiling for months. Factional disputes are now far more visible than they were when the party was in power and allies of Zbigniew Ziobro were openly attacking Mateusz Morawiecki during his tenure as prime minister.

Today, the hardline core of PiS – centered around politicians such as Przemysław Czarnek, Jacek Sasin, and Mariusz Błaszczak – has the strongest representation in the party’s leadership and sets the tone of its main political narrative. On the other side stands Mateusz Morawiecki, who does not adopt tones as radical as those of Czarnek, whose ambitions are a source of concern for internal rivals.

For the party leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, the situation within PiS is becoming increasingly difficult to control, despite years of being described as someone who manages the party through managed conflict.

In February, Kaczyński issued a warning to PiS members engaged in public disputes, announcing that those involved could be suspended.

The warning followed a public exchange between former deputy Speaker of the Sejm Ryszard Terlecki and former deputy justice minister Sebastian Kaleta. Terlecki, who has long argued that the situation surrounding Zbigniew Ziobro is damaging to the party, said that Ziobro should not receive a parliamentary salary if he is not present on Wiejska Street, where the Sejm sits. Kaleta, Ziobro’s former deputy, intervened in the exchange with a reporter from TVN24, defending his former superior. The ensuing back-and-forth between Kaleta and Terlecki escalated tensions and further inflamed emotions, spilling over into the party’s broader factions.

The chairman’s warning did not produce the desired effect. PiS politicians quickly returned to public mutual attacks.

The chairman’s warnings grow weaker

The party leader’s warning regarding associations also proved short-lived. As early as April, during a press conference in the Sejm, Jarosław Kaczyński stated that individuals who joined Mateusz Morawiecki’s association would not be placed on electoral lists.

He also announced a ban on party members engaging in other organizations. He argued that Morawiecki’s association could be political in nature, and that such activity is not comparable to other associations involving PiS members. These include the OdNowa Association, led by MP Marcin Ociepa, and the “Yes to Development” Social Movement, headed by MP Marcin Horała (who is also vice-president of the Rozwój Plus Association founded by Morawiecki).

The situation was partially defused during private meetings involving Adam Bielan. However, in May, at a party caucus meeting (according to reports, including those by Radio Zet), there was said to be an announcement calling for the liquidation of all associations formed within the party. Organizations granted the chairman’s approval would be limited to those such as OdNowa – recast as a think tank.

Mateusz Morawiecki, however, shows no sign of backing down. In mid-May, the Rozwój Plus Association was formally registered, and Morawiecki continues to insist that PiS is his party. He has also declared that he will not allow himself to be pushed out of it.

The former prime minister is clearly fighting to secure his position. On the right, competition is intensifying: PiS’s polling numbers are significantly lower than in the 2023 elections, while both factions of Confederation are polling in double digits. In this context, the chairman’s authority carries less weight than in the past, when there was no meaningful competition to PiS on the right – or when such actors played only a marginal role in politics.

What could Mateusz Morawiecki gain?

By building an association, Mateusz Morawiecki has demonstrated that he can count on substantial political support from PiS politicians, including figures outside his immediate inner circle. Morawiecki is seeking to appeal to centrist voters – an increasingly difficult electorate for the party’s mainstream to reach. Przemysław Czarnek, by contrast, uses more radical rhetoric in an effort to compete for voters with the Confederation.

Even within the current Sejm, Morawiecki’s faction could potentially form the third-largest parliamentary group. Several polls have already tested the electoral potential of his political project.

In mid-May, a survey by IBRiS for Radio Zet found that 20.7% of respondents said they would consider voting for a Morawiecki-led party. In a more recent poll by Pollster for Super Express daily, 43% of respondents identifying as PiS supporters said Morawiecki should not establish his own party.

The Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS) tested support for a hypothetical Morawiecki party in April. It registered potential support at 6%, which would be enough to cross the parliamentary threshold.

In another April study by the Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza, a hypothetical Morawiecki party recorded support of 5.84%, also above the electoral threshold.

According to CBOS, as much as 60% of this potential electorate would come from PiS voters, while 27% would come from Confederation voters.

In other words, Mateusz Morawiecki could bring his own political formation into the next Sejm. But that would come at the cost of weakening PiS. Jarosław Kaczyński can ill afford that – especially amid double-digit support for Sławomir Mentzen’s and Krzysztof Bosak’s Confederation, as well as Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Polish Crown.

Leaving PiS could be risky

If Mateusz Morawiecki were to find himself outside PiS, he could establish an independent political force capable of competing not only with PiS itself, but also with the broader right-wing opposition. However, it is difficult to imagine the former prime minister taking such a step without some “help” from internal party rivals.

An attempt to go it alone would nevertheless carry significant risks. Over the years, many prominent politicians have left PiS to build their own movements. None has achieved lasting political success.

Leaders of the Polska Jest Najważniejsza (Poland Comes First) party eventually joined the Civic Coalition. The Right of the Republic, founded by Marek Jurek, remains on the political margins. Solidarna Polska (later Sovereign Poland) led by Zbigniew Ziobro was ultimately absorbed by PiS. The same fate met the Republican Party, created after the split in Jarosław Gowin’s Agreement party.

Morawiecki would also have to reckon with the fact that Jarosław Kaczyński and his inner circle are unlikely to forget any potential split.

Personal risk would also extend to politicians who chose to follow Morawiecki. It would mean greater uncertainty about retaining their parliamentary seats when running on a smaller ticket, as well as the need to compete for the same electorate as their former party. For some, it could amount to an exit from parliamentary politics altogether.

The internal disputes within PiS stem from struggles for influence. Competing factions are emerging around Przemysław Czarnek, a potential candidate for prime minister, and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. For Jarosław Kaczyński, it is becoming increasingly difficult to control these internal conflicts. His influence on the right side of the political spectrum is diminishing as competition continues to strengthen.
If Mateusz Morawiecki were to leave PiS, he could potentially secure representation in the next Sejm under his own banner. However, his support would draw primarily from the PiS electorate. Such a split would therefore be detrimental to the party.
Leaving PiS would also entail significant risk for Morawiecki. Over the years, PiS breakaway politicians have established new parties that either quickly disappeared from the political scene or were eventually reintegrated into PiS structures.