Poland 2050 prepares for leadership election. Seven candidates to vie for leadership of a party in polling crisis

The leadership election in Poland 2050 will differ from those in other parties forming the governing coalition. In November, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz was re-elected as president of the Polish People’s Party, running unopposed.

On Sunday, December 14, the New Left also held its leadership election, in which the sole candidate was incumbent chairman Włodzimierz Czarzasty, who was re-elected to the post.

At the beginning of next year, Civic Coalition plans to hold its party elections. There are no signs that anyone will challenge Donald Tusk’s position.

Party elections in Poland 2050

Poland 2050 stands out in several respects. First, the current chairman is not running. Second, no fewer than seven candidates are vying for the leadership.

From the very beginning, Poland 2050 revolved around Szymon Hołownia – a TV host and journalist-turned politician. He founded the party after his presidential bid in 2020. Even before the first parliamentary elections, he attracted MPs from other parties, and in 2023 he established his own parliamentary caucus.

For two years, he served as Speaker of the Sejm, but following his second unsuccessful presidential campaign, the party’s polling figures began to decline steadily. His image also suffered from meetings with PiS [Law and Justice – ed.] leaders.

Mr. Hołownia will not run

Once it became clear that Włodzimierz Czarzasty would not relinquish his ambitions as Speaker of the Sejm, Szymon Hołownia began pursuing the post of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. In recent days, he publicly acknowledged that his chances were slim. The recruitment process concluded on Friday, and on the same day it was announced that Barham Ahmed Salih, former president of Iraq, would assume the role. Mr. Hołownia currently remains Deputy Speaker of the Sejm, but his involvement in day-to-day party politics is diminishing.

Some within the party had hoped Mr. Hołownia as the founder would still decide to run. In an interview with XYZ, Barbara Oliwiecka, a Poland 2050 MP, admitted that she encouraged him to stand.

“I spoke with Szymon Hołownia. He was my favorite – and not just mine. Many within the party structures were counting on him to run. I believe he would have been the best candidate. He repeatedly stressed that he did not want to build a leader-centric party and that the existence of strong leaders is essential. In our party, we have them in abundance. In other parties, leaders are often sidelined before they can grow. I trust that they will carry forward what Szymon has built. The goal is clear: that we run independently in the 2027 elections. As a democratic bloc, we must cast a wide net. We will fight to ensure radicals like Mr. Braun [a controversial politician known for his antisemitic and anti-Ukrainian views – ed.] cannot co-govern. All members of the current coalition should care that the coalition parties [KO, the Left, PSL, and Poland 2050 – ed.] remain strong,” says MP Barbara Oliwiecka.

Seven candidates

No fewer than seven candidates have thrown their hats into the ring to lead Poland 2050. They are (in alphabetical order):

1. Paulina Hennig-Kloska – Head of the Ministry of Climate and Environment, vice-chair of Poland 2050, former head of the Poland 2050 parliamentary club, previously an MP with Nowoczesna party.
2. Rafał Kasprzyk – MP, formerly active in Nowoczesna party.
3. Michał Kobosko – Member of the European Parliament, the first chairman of Poland 2050 after its founding, and a long-time journalist.
4. Joanna Mucha – MP, until recently deputy minister at the Ministry of National Education, previously Minister of Sport in the PO-PSL government and a PO MP; vice-chair of Poland 2050.
5. Ryszard Petru – MP, founder of Nowoczesna party and the party Teraz.
6. Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz – Head of the Ministry of Funds and Regional Policy, first vice-chair of Poland 2050, former ambassador of Poland to Moscow.
7. Bartosz Romowicz – MP, former mayor of Ustrzyki Dolne [a small town in south-eastern Poland], and former member of the parliamentary investigative committee on the “postal elections.”

Poland 2050 leadership election: Who has the best chances?

Szymon Hołownia has endorsed Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. MP Barbara Oliwiecka, meanwhile, does not disclose her personal favorite in the party election. By contrast, MP Mirosław Suchoń, former head of the Poland 2050 parliamentary club, has publicly indicated his preferred candidate.

“I expect there will be a second round. In my view, it will be Paulina Hennig-Kloska versus Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. I have publicly stated that I support Paulina Hennig-Kloska. I believe she would make an excellent chairperson,” says MP Mirosław Suchoń.

The contest between Hennig-Kloska and Pełczyńska-Nałęcz was previously decisive in determining the party’s nomination for Poland 2050’s candidate for deputy prime minister. When asked within the party who is most likely to win the leadership race, however, a different set of names emerges.

“There is an established election procedure. Candidates meet with party activists across the regions. I think Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz has the best chances. She is the most widely recognized, and she has been preparing for this leadership bid for a long time – she did not start campaigning at the last minute. Ryszard Petru also has significant chances, due to the way he is running his campaign. I don’t believe the others have a realistic shot,” says one Poland 2050 parliamentarian.

The greatest differences between the two frontrunners are visible in their economic approaches. Ryszard Petru advocates a more liberal economic course, whereas Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz favors a social market economy.

Poland 2050 MP: Leadership has fallen short

Rafał Komarewicz, a Poland 2050 MP and chair of the parliamentary economic committee, does not name a favorite candidate. He does, however, acknowledge that the party should be managed differently than it has been.

“The style of the current leadership is no longer acceptable, given that seven people are running while our leader, Szymon Hołownia, is not. I’ll be honest: I want to know the direction our party is heading. I am counting on internal debates among the leadership candidates. I hope someone new will become chairperson. The previous leadership has not delivered. Our leader may have reached a similar conclusion, which is why he is not running,” says MP Rafał Komarewicz.

Election promises

The Poland 2050 politician adds that, ahead of the next elections, the party should demonstrate real progress on its campaign promises – something he believes has been lacking over the past two years of the current term. He himself has made several attempts to depoliticize management boards and supervisory boards in state-owned companies, which we covered in XYZ.

“Over the past two years, I have seen too little delivery on our election promises. I would like the new chairperson to pay particular attention to this. In two years, there will be parliamentary elections, and our support has fallen from 11 percent to 2 percent. We tried to lower the health insurance contribution, depoliticize state-owned companies, and introduce personal assistance for people with disabilities. Look at the New Left – they managed to introduce the widow’s pension and increase the funeral allowance,” says Rafał Komarewicz.

What happens after the January elections?

Thursday saw tensions rise following a report by Onet news portal, which suggested that a group of MPs might leave the party if Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz wins. MP Barbara Oliwiecka firmly rejects such scenarios. Several other Poland 2050 sources interviewed by XYZ express similar views.

“No party is immune to MPs leaving. Look at how many MPs Poland 2050 has lost since the beginning of the term. Two left, one was expelled but later readmitted. We started with 33 MPs; today we have 31. How many did the Left have? They had 26, now 21. Relatively speaking, it is PSL and Poland 2050 that have maintained the most stable parliamentary numbers,” says one party politician.

One MP, speaking off the record, admits that he expects some reshuffling after the January elections.

Low polling figures

Regardless of the outcome of the party leadership election or any potential departures, Poland 2050 faces a difficult road to the next parliamentary elections. It is increasingly hard to find a poll in which the party exceeds the 5 percent electoral threshold.

On Wednesday, Gazeta Wyborcza daily published the results of an Opinia24 survey showing Poland 2050 at 1.8 percent support, placing it last among parties represented in the Sejm. The day before, Wirtualna Polska news portal reported the results of a United Surveys poll, in which Poland 2050 received 1 percent. In a CBOS survey published on December 5, Mr. Hołownia’s party garnered 2.7 percent support.

The new chairperson of Poland 2050 will be announced in mid-January. Voting will take place on January 10. If no candidate secures at least half of the votes, a second round will be held on January 12.

Approximately 800 people – so-called ordinary (full) members – will be eligible to vote in the leadership election. Poland 2050 currently has around 1,600 members.

A tempting prize despite low party ratings

Although current polls give Poland 2050 little chance of entering the Sejm in the next elections, the party still commands a 31-member parliamentary club. The new leader will thus head a party that remains a significant element of the governing coalition, joining the ranks of coalition leaders alongside Donald Tusk, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, and Włodzimierz Czarzasty.

Regardless of whether the party survives the next parliamentary elections, it can continue to play a meaningful role in government. Beyond its parliamentary club, Poland 2050 controls three ministries and a group of deputy ministers.

The choice of chairperson could also affect the functioning of the entire coalition. Until Poland 2050’s leadership election is resolved, it is difficult to expect a decision from Prime Minister Donald Tusk regarding the deputy prime minister post for the party’s representative – female, since Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz received the party’s nomination. But what if she is not elected chairperson?

Ryszard Petru has repeatedly stressed that Poland 2050 should cooperate more closely within the coalition, in contrast to the criticism of the main partner that Szymon Hołownia did not spare during the election campaign. After the campaign, Joanna Mucha, a former PO politician who left the ministry led by Barbara Nowacka from KO (Nowacka had previously been on Rafał Trzaskowski’s team, whom Mucha sharply criticized after the elections), expressed a similar view.

In November, PSL Deputy Marshal of the Sejm Piotr Zgorzelski wrote on X that if he were in Poland 2050, he would support Michał Kobosko. This is a clear hint as to who might be seen as a more favorable coalition partner by a former ally from the Trzecia Droga era.

January will reveal who will lead Poland 2050 after Szymon Hołownia. While it is still uncertain whether the party will secure a place in the next Sejm, the seven candidates clearly still have much at stake.

Key Takeaways

1. The candidates for Poland 2050 leadership are Paulina Hennig-Kloska, Rafał Kasprzyk, Michał Kobosko, Joanna Mucha, Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, Ryszard Petru, and Bartosz Romowicz.
2. Some politicians had hoped Szymon Hołownia would run, the founder around whom the party was built. Observers identify Hennig-Kloska, Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, and Petru as having the strongest chances. Criticism of the current leadership is becoming increasingly audible within the party.
3. After two years in office, Poland 2050’s polling results are worsening, ranging from 1 to 2.7 percent - well below the threshold needed to secure a seat in the Sejm.