Poland: Q3 GDP growth at 3.8%

Poland’s seasonally unadjusted real GDP expanded by 3.8% in Q3 2025, accelerating from 3.3% in the previous quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the economy grew by 0.9%.

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Poland Statistics (GUS) has also revised its mid-November flash estimate, which had put annual growth at 3.7%. The full release, offering more granular data, paints a clearer picture of the underlying dynamics in the Polish economy.

Growth structure: A shift between consumption and investment

Private consumption remained the main driver of GDP growth in Q3 2025. Yet its contribution (2% y/y) was smaller than in the previous quarter (2.6% y/y). In unadjusted annual terms, household spending rose by 3.5%, down from 4.5% in Q2.

The slowdown surprised analysts. The National Bank of Poland (NBP), for instance, had expected growth of 4.2% in its November forecast. The data suggest that households are still wary of loosening their purse strings after the macroeconomic shocks of recent years.

Public consumption (up 1.5% y/y) also made a notable contribution to growth. Government spending rose by as much as 7.4% year-on-year, which aligns with the sizeable general-government deficit projected at around 7% of GDP. Public outlays therefore continue to prop up GDP – an effect that was especially visible in 2024 but had faded somewhat in the first half of 2025.

A similar pattern may be emerging in investment. It increased by 7.1% in the third quarter, though this component is highly volatile: the previous two quarters saw growth of 6.4% and a contraction of 0.7%. More evidence will be needed before declaring a sustained recovery – something that will likely only become clear next year.

A comparison of headline investment growth with spending by firms employing more than 50 people and by local governments suggests that defense-related outlays may have been a major driver this quarter.

A welcome development is the first positive contribution of net exports to growth since early 2024. Exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year, while imports increased by 5.9% - a solid performance given the muted recovery among Poland’s key trading partners. Also noteworthy is the strong rise in industrial value added, which grew by nearly 5%. At the opposite end of the scale sits construction, where value added hovered around zero.

Key Takeaways

1. Growth is solid but still consumer‑driven: GDP rose 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025 (0.9% q/q), with private and public consumption remaining key drivers, although households are spending more cautiously than expected after recent shocks.
2. Investment and defense spending are picking up, but the trend is not yet stable: total investment grew 7.1% in Q3, and available data suggest defense-related outlays were an important driver, though volatility in previous quarters means it is too early to call a sustained investment recovery.
3. External sector and industry are finally adding support: net exports made their first positive contribution to growth since early 2024, with exports outpacing imports, industrial value added rose by nearly 5%, while construction remains flat with value added around zero.