Poland’s banks set for historic dividends

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Polish banks earned PLN 48.7bn (EUR 11.5bn) in 2025 – the highest figure on record. Now the real contest begins: how to divide the spoils. According to estimates by XYZ, the biggest share will go to the State Treasury. Yet sizeable transfers will also flow abroad. Pension savers stand to benefit as well.

It has been an exceptionally strong year for Poland’s banking sector. According to data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the industry reported a combined net profit of PLN 48.7bn (EUR 11.5bn) between January and December 2025. That is 21.5% more than in the previous twelve months.

These record nominal profits have raised shareholders’ hopes for an especially generous distribution of earnings – particularly as the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) has just issued its recommendations on dividend payouts.

KNF sends banks dividend guidelines

The Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) published its position on the sector’s dividend policy in December 2025. The supervisor does this every year. The requirements governing profit distribution are meant to ensure that banks’ capital bases remain aligned with the risks they take on.

The regulator focuses on the so-called dividend payout ratio – the share of annual net profit that individual institutions may distribute to shareholders. Similar rules apply in other parts of the financial sector, including insurance companies.

Three months ago the KNF set out the conditions for payouts of 50% and 75% of annual earnings. At the end of February it sent individual banks recommendations on their maximum payout ratios. These take into account each institution’s capital adequacy ratios, supervisory assessment and the share of non-performing loans (NPLs).

Regulatory filings show that six banks have been allowed to distribute up to 75% of last year’s net profit to shareholders: PKO BP, Bank Pekao, ING Bank Śląski, mBank, Santander Bank Polska and Citi Handlowy.

Alior Bank received a lower recommendation. In theory it may distribute a dividend equal to 50% of its profits, because – unlike the banks listed above – it has a relatively high share of NPLs. Among the large listed banks, only BNP Paribas and Millennium have not yet disclosed the KNF’s recommendations.

Management boards will present proposals, shareholders will vote

In the coming weeks bank management boards will present their dividend recommendations. Shareholders will then vote on them at annual general meetings. In most institutions, decisions on the distribution of 2025 profits will be taken in May or June, alongside the approval of last year’s financial statements and votes of discharge for members of management and supervisory boards.

It is already known that ING will recommend paying out up to 75% of its profit as a dividend. The management board of mBank, by contrast, recommends no dividend – consistent with the strategy it unveiled in September 2025, which envisages profit distribution starting in 2027. Bank Millennium will also forgo a dividend. On March 30th its shareholders will vote on a resolution to retain the entire profit within the company. What about the other banks?

“We meet the 75% threshold and will now consider the final dividend level. As a starting point, 75% is a good benchmark,” said Michał Gajewski, chief executive of Santander, at the bank’s results conference.

“We have ambitions to deliver dividends on a regular basis. It looks like this year’s payout will fall within the range signaled in our strategy, though it is too early to say more,” said Cezary Stypułkowski, chief executive of Pekao. (The bank’s strategy envisages distributing 50–75% of profits.)

Most banks likely to pay the maximum

Banking-sector analysts expect most institutions to distribute the maximum dividend permitted by the KNF. The exceptions are likely to be mBank and, probably, BNP Paribas, which – according to analysts – is expected to pay out 50% of its profit.

The French-owned bank in fact stated in a regulatory filing in February that it plans to distribute half of its earnings as a dividend, even though it probably meets the requirements to pay out 75%. In its strategy through 2030, the bank assumes it will reach a 75% payout ratio only in 2030; until then the ratio is expected to remain at 50%.

Analysts are also watching how Bank Pekao will proceed. They note that in 2025 the bank’s management recommended a dividend equal to 51.5% of net profit. Later, however, the Polish Development Fund (PFR) – the bank’s second-largest shareholder alongside PZU – called for a more generous distribution. The PFR motion passed, and ultimately 75% of profits were paid out to shareholders.

Crucially, dividends are calculated on the basis of individual (standalone) bank results rather than consolidated results, which include other companies within a banking group. That makes it harder to estimate precisely how much shareholders will receive. The reason: not all institutions have yet published such figures. BNP Paribas will report its standalone results on March 5th, PKO BP on March 12th and Citi Handlowy five days later.

More than PLN 25bn (EUR 6bn) could go to shareholders

Although payout ratios were higher in the past – for instance, Citi distributed 99.2–100% of its 2019 and 2020 profits, while ING paid out 97.7% in 2024 – stronger earnings mean that most listed banks may still deliver record dividends in nominal terms.

Seven of the nine large listed banks have reported, or are expected to report (based on analysts’ estimates), year-on-year profit growth.

Several trends have supported the sector. First, strong lending volumes and improved interest-rate risk management boosted net interest income despite falling interest rates. Second, some banks reported a significant increase in fee and commission income, driven in part by a rise in customer transactions and greater activity in investment markets. Third, banks benefited from lower provisions related to Swiss-franc mortgages, reflecting a slowdown in the inflow of new court cases.

According to estimates by XYZ, shareholders in seven banks could receive a combined PLN 25.4bn (EUR 6bn), nearly PLN 2bn (EUR 470m) more than a year earlier (PLN 23.5bn, or about EUR 5.5bn). From those amounts, however, a 19% tax must still be deducted – reducing the payouts by nearly one-fifth.

PKO BP and Pekao likely to pay the largest sums

Consider PKO BP. According to analysts, the bank is expected to report consolidated net profit of PLN 10.5–10.6bn (EUR 2.5bn), up PLN 1.2–1.3bn (EUR 280–305m) from a year earlier. The standalone result will probably be slightly lower (in the previous annual report, the gap between the two figures was PLN 150m). If shareholders approve a dividend equal to 75% of profit, Poland’s largest bank would distribute PLN 7.7–7.8bn (EUR 1.8bn).

Who will receive the largest share? The biggest shareholder is the State Treasury, which holds nearly 30% of the bank’s shares and would receive about PLN 2.3bn (EUR 540m). Another PLN 560m (EUR 130m) would go to the Nationale-Nederlanden open pension fund (NN), and PLN 460m (EUR 108m) to the Allianz open pension fund. The PZU Złota Jesień open pension fund (PLN 271m, EUR 64m) and the Generali open pension fund (PLN 257m, EUR 60m) would also benefit. These four pension funds are significant minority shareholders in all of Poland’s largest banks.

Substantial dividends could also go to shareholders of Pekao. The bank reported standalone net profit of PLN 6.92bn (EUR 1.6bn), about PLN 0.5bn (EUR 118m) more than a year earlier. If it distributes 75% of those earnings, shareholders would receive PLN 5.19bn (EUR 1.2bn). Roughly one-fifth of that would go to PZU (PLN 1.04bn, EUR 245m). The Polish Development Fund (PFR) could receive PLN 664m (EUR 156m), the NN open pension fund PLN 301m (EUR 71m), and the Allianz open pension fund PLN 275.5m (EUR 65m).

Erste could see its first return on the investment

Santander Bank Polska may stand out this year, having gained a new controlling shareholder in January: Austria’s Erste Group. The bank reported standalone net profit of PLN 6.71bn (EUR 1.58bn), PLN 1.5bn (EUR 350m) more than a year earlier. If it distributes three-quarters of that profit, the Austrians would receive about PLN 2.46bn (EUR 580m) in gross dividend income shortly after completing the transaction.

Another PLN 488m (EUR 115m) would go to Banco Santander. Despite selling its controlling stake, the Spanish group still holds 9.7% of the Polish bank’s shares.

Shareholders of ING Bank Śląski can also expect a sizeable dividend. The bank posted standalone net profit of PLN 4.63bn (EUR 1.09bn), only slightly higher than a year earlier. If shareholders decide to allocate 75% of profits to dividends, the Dutch parent ING Group would receive PLN 2.61bn (EUR 615m) gross.

Why so much? Unlike the three institutions mentioned above, ING’s main shareholder holds as much as 75% of the bank’s capital. The Allianz open pension fund would receive PLN 211m (EUR 50m), the Nationale-Nederlanden open pension fund PLN 193m (EUR 45m), and the PZU open pension fund PLN 113m (EUR 27m).

Billions will also flow to shareholders of BNP Paribas and Citi

Shareholders of BNP Paribas Bank Polska are also likely to receive a higher dividend than a year earlier. The bank posted consolidated net profit of PLN 3.06bn (EUR 720m); its standalone result will be published on March 5th. Assuming a 50% payout ratio, this would translate into roughly PLN 1.5bn (EUR 350m) in dividends.

As much as PLN 1.15bn (EUR 270m) would then go to entities controlled by BNP Paribas, which together hold 75% of the Polish bank’s shares. Around PLN 60m (≈ EUR 14m) would go to the Nationale-Nederlanden and Allianz open pension funds.

At Alior Bank, the main beneficiary of dividends would be PZU, which controls 31% of the bank’s shares. With a 50% payout ratio, Poland’s largest insurer would receive nearly PLN 365m (EUR 86m). The Nationale-Nederlanden open pension fund would receive PLN 110m (EUR 26m), and the Allianz open pension fund PLN 104m (EUR 24m).

Citi Handlowy has not yet reported its results. Analysts expect the bank to post around PLN 1.6bn (EUR 380m) in annual net profit. That would allow roughly PLN 1.2bn (EUR 280m) to be distributed to shareholders, assuming a 75% payout ratio.

Of that amount, as much as 75% would go to the European unit of Citigroup – one of the world’s largest banking groups – amounting to about PLN 917m (≈ EUR 216m). Another PLN 113m (EUR 27m) would be shared between the Allianz and Nationale-Nederlanden open pension funds.

The State Treasury comes out on top, followed by ING

All this means that the biggest beneficiary of this year’s dividends will be Poland’s State Treasury of Poland. If the results of PKO Bank Polski and Citi Handlowy match expectations, and if dividend payouts reach the maximum levels permitted by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, the Treasury could receive a combined PLN 6.7bn (EUR 1.6bn).

Most of that sum – PLN 4.4bn (EUR 1.0bn) – would come from dividend tax, while another PLN 2.3bn (EUR 540m) would stem from PKO BP’s dividend.

Second place would go to ING Bank BV with PLN 2.61bn (EUR 615m), followed by Austria’s Erste Group with PLN 2.46bn (EUR 580m).

Just off the podium would be the PZU group (PLN 1.41bn, EUR 330m), followed by the Nationale-Nederlanden Open Pension Fund (PLN 1.3bn, EUR 305m), the Allianz Open Pension Fund (PLN 1.18bn, EUR 278m), BNP Paribas (PLN 1.13bn, EUR 266m) and Citigroup (PLN 917m, EUR 216m).

The state will be the biggest beneficiary, though billions will also flow abroad. Poland’s State Treasury of Poland could receive around PLN 6.7bn (EUR 1.6bn) in total – PLN 2.3bn (EUR 540m) as a dividend from PKO Bank Polski and PLN 4.4bn (EUR 1.0bn) in the form of the 19% dividend tax. Foreign owners will also collect sizeable sums: the Dutch ING Group (about PLN 2.6bn, EUR 615m), Austria’s Erste Group (around PLN 2.5bn, EUR 590m from Santander), as well as BNP Paribas and Citigroup. Poland’s open pension funds will also remain important beneficiaries – especially those run by Nationale-Nederlanden and Allianz, which are significant shareholders in all the country’s major banks.
The Polish Financial Supervision Authority has allowed six banks – PKO Bank Polski, Bank Pekao, ING Bank Śląski, mBank, Santander Bank Polska and Citi Handlowy – to distribute up to 75% of their 2025 net profits. That is the highest standard payout level recommended by the supervisor. Alior Bank may distribute up to 50% because of its higher share of non-performing loans. In the coming weeks management boards will present their profit-distribution proposals, with final decisions to be taken at annual general meetings in May and June.
PLN 25.4bn (EUR 6bn) is at stake. According to XYZ estimates, shareholders of seven large banks could receive more than PLN 25bn in total – around PLN 4bn (EUR 940m) more than a year earlier. The largest payouts are likely to come from PKO Bank Polski (PLN 7.7–7.8bn, EUR 1.8bn) and Bank Pekao (about PLN 5.2bn, EUR 1.2bn). Substantial transfers are also expected from Santander Bank Polska (around PLN 5bn gross, EUR 1.2bn) and ING Bank Śląski (about PLN 3.5bn, EUR 825m). mBank will be an exception, as it will not pay a dividend in line with its strategy. Bank Millennium will also refrain from distributing profits.