This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Poland’s economy expanded by 3.8% in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, Statistics Poland (GUS) reported. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP increased by 0.9% quarter on quarter and 3.7% year on year.
Interactive chart A detailed analysis of the drivers of growth will have to wait until the end of August, when the statistical office is due to publish a breakdown of the economy’s growth by component.
Poland’s GDP over time
From a broader perspective, this was a better quarter than the previous one. GDP had increased by 0.6% quarter on quarter in the first quarter, after a revision. The economy has therefore picked up slightly.
More important, however, is something else, as the chart below illustrates clearly. After the turmoil caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the economy has stabilized. The second quarter marked the seventh consecutive quarter of quarter-on-quarter growth for the Polish economy. And the pace has been far from negligible: growth has not fallen below 0.5% in any of those quarters.
There are, of course, clouds on the horizon linked to the fallout from the US-Iran war. Higher oil prices have so far had a relatively limited impact on inflation, but inflation reached 3% in July. That is constraining growth in real incomes.
From next Monday, the government is once again partially reinstating the Lower Fuel Prices (CPN) program, covering VAT but not excise duty. On the other hand, the economy is likely being supported by investments linked to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (KPO).
...and compared with EU countries
In the second quarter of 2026, Poland’s economy was among the fastest-growing in the European Union. On a quarterly basis, only Slovenia (1.8%), Lithuania (1.7%) and Sweden (1.4%) posted stronger growth than Poland, while Finland matched Poland’s 0.9% increase. By comparison, the US economy expanded by 0.4% quarter on quarter, while the EU’s largest economies grew much more slowly: GDP increased by 0.2% in each of Germany, France and Italy. The EU as a whole, however, had a slightly stronger quarter than the US, expanding by 0.5%. That was a marked improvement from the first quarter.
Interactive chart Poland’s strong position is even more apparent in year-on-year terms. GDP was 3.7% higher than a year earlier in the second quarter, compared with growth of 1.2% across the EU and 2.1% in the US. Among the EU countries shown, only Slovenia, where GDP rose 4.8% year on year, and Lithuania, at 3.8%, grew faster than Poland. Poland also clearly outpaced the EU’s largest economies: Germany (0.9%), France (0.7%) and Italy (1.0%).
But the EU economy also rebounded sharply compared with the first quarter, which is good news for Poland, too. It suggests that external demand is stronger than previously thought.
Poland and Southern Europe are joined by the Nordics. Romania is in a slump
Looking at individual countries, several trends stand out. Some will come as no surprise. Lithuania and Poland are growing relatively quickly, as are the economies of southern Europe, notably Spain and Portugal.
What is new is the strong performance of the Nordic economies, Sweden and Finland. The weakest picture, meanwhile, is in Romania, where GDP is 2% lower year on year. This is linked to fiscal tightening, forced by market pressures and EU fiscal rules, aimed at reducing the budget deficit.
There is, however, one brighter spot: Romania’s GDP was unchanged quarter on quarter. That marks an improvement after declines in each of the previous two quarters.