This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart Average pay in Poland’s national economy stood at PLN 9,233.13 (EUR 2,155) in the second quarter of this year, according to data released by Statistics Poland (GUS). This means wages grew by 5.5% year on year.
During the period, average pay was around PLN 330 (EUR 77) lower than in the first quarter, reflecting seasonal effects. In February, employees in the public sector receive an additional annual payment, known as the “13th salary”, which temporarily boosts average wages.
The economy as a whole vs. the business sector
The figure published by Statistics Poland (GUS) covers all entities in the national economy, rather than just companies employing 10 or more people. It therefore also includes the public sector and microbusinesses. For this reason, it is a better indicator of what is happening across the economy than wage data for the business sector, which are released more frequently.
Interactive chart Our forecast of slower wage growth across the economy than in the business sector has proved correct. Wages across the economy rose by 5.5%, compared with 5.7% among companies with more than nine employees. The slower pace of wage growth across the national economy reflects relatively modest increases in the minimum wage, as well as a 3% adjustment to public-sector pay in 2026. Both increases amounted to just 3%.
This weighs on overall wage growth because the indicator also covers the public sector and microbusinesses. In the latter group, the median wage tends to move in line with the minimum wage.
A similar situation occurred temporarily in the second quarter of 2025. This time, however, it is likely to be more persistent. The reason is that the government is also planning 3% increases in the minimum wage and public-sector pay in 2027.
A broader perspective
Over the longer term, wage growth in Poland is clearly losing momentum. As recently as April 2024, nominal wages were rising by 14.4% year on year, while real wages – adjusted for inflation – were increasing by 11.3%. In the quarters that followed, wage growth gradually slowed. After a temporary rebound at the beginning of 2026, nominal wage growth began to weaken again, reaching 5.5% year on year in the latest period. This is the lowest reading shown on the chart.
The slowdown in real wage growth has been even sharper. With inflation currently at 2.9% year on year, real wages increased by just 2.5%, down from 5.9% at the beginning of 2026. This means that although the purchasing power of the average wage continues to rise, it is improving much more slowly than it did over the previous two years.
Moreover, the latest slowdown in real wage growth reflects both weaker nominal wage increases and a renewed acceleration in inflation linked to disruptions in the Middle East.
XYZ’s view
Slower real wage growth could constrain the pace of household consumption in the coming months. In recent years, consumer spending has benefited substantially from the rapid improvement in purchasing power. This does not mean real incomes are falling – they are still rising – but the boost supporting consumer spending is becoming noticeably weaker.
For the economy, this could mean less demand-side pressure and a gradual cooling in services inflation, but also less support for GDP growth from private consumption. So far, strong June retail-sales data do not confirm this trend. It is, however, a highly plausible scenario in the months ahead.