Polish export map. What are the export hits?

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Polish exports are starting to recover, but the growth is clearly geographically uneven. Exports are rising in Western markets while declining in Eastern ones. Data from January to October 2025 show solid performance in EU markets, alongside falling exports to Turkey and China. Here is a map of Poland’s export destinations and the goods that have emerged as its biggest hits this year.

Polish goods exports are beginning to revive. According to new data published by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the value of goods exports in the September–November period rose by 4.8% year-on-year (calculations based on euro-denominated data). For the January–October period, when detailed data are still available, growth stood at 2.8% year-on-year. Here is a look at the markets where Polish exports are performing best, the factors behind the growth, and the top re-export hits.

Rising in the West...

From January to October 2025, exports grew mainly in Western markets. This is good news, as these destinations represent the main outlets for Polish goods. Exports to Germany, Poland’s most important partner, increased by 2% year-on-year (all calculations in euros). Exports to the Czech Republic and France, the country’s second- and third-largest partners, rose by 2.8% and 2.4%, respectively.

Exports increased year-on-year across all ten of Poland’s largest markets. The strongest growth was recorded in exports to Spain, which surged by 5.6%. This can largely be attributed to robust economic growth in the Spanish economy. According to European Commission forecasts, this momentum is expected to continue in 2026, with Spain projected to be the third fastest-growing major economy.

Solid economic growth is also boosting demand from other European economies. Among them is Sweden, where exports rose by 13.1% in the January–October period (ranked 11th among Poland’s largest export markets). Growth was also notable among countries in the third tier of key partners: Croatia (+14.8%), Portugal (+12.8%), Greece (+12.2%), and Bulgaria (+8.9%).

Interestingly, Polish exports to the United States also rose slightly, by 0.4% year-on-year. Given the tariffs imposed on EU goods (with a base rate of 15%), this should be considered a success.

…while declining in the East

By contrast, performance was weaker in Eastern markets. All of these countries, however, are outside Poland’s top ten export destinations. Exports to Lithuania fell by 1.4% (17th place), to Turkey by 2.8% (18th place), and to China by 6.6% (21st place).

Sharp declines are also evident in exports to Russia, which fell by over 19% in the first ten months of 2025. This, of course, reflects sanctions and the scaling back of economic ties in response to the attack on Ukraine. Russia now accounts for just 0.6% of total Polish exports and ranks among the 30 largest export markets. Similar patterns are visible in trade with Belarus, where exports dropped by almost half year-on-year.

Export hits: Aircraft parts, fertilizers, and meat

Polish exports are holding up this year, particularly in Western markets, but a note of caution is warranted. At least part of the growth in European markets comes from the re-export of goods, mainly originating in China. It is difficult to quantify exactly how much, but an analysis of exports by specific product categories suggests that, without re-exports, the value of goods sent to some markets would have been flat – or even lower – than a year ago.

For example, some categories saw year-on-year increases of over 20% despite minimal domestic production. As shown in the table above, which lists product sections (two-letter CN codes) with the highest annual growth for January–October 2025, these include clothing and clothing accessories, which rose by 26%, as well as toys, games, and sporting goods, up 25%.

There are also genuine export hits, such as aircraft and aircraft parts, which surged by 42% year-on-year. Poland hosts major facilities producing components for the world’s largest aerospace companies.

Fertilizers are another standout. Poland is a major producer, and the sector is benefiting from a favorable market environment, supported by low gas prices in Europe. Other categories with strong growth include jewelry, as well as meat and offal.

Products with significant declines: Weapons, grain, and locomotives

Among the product categories that saw the steepest drops are weapons and ammunition, including parts. Exports fell by as much as 44%. This category, however, is heavily influenced by aid shipments to Ukraine – both Polish and international – which are stored in Poland. As such, this result should be interpreted with caution.

Significant declines were also observed in the grain sector, in which Poland is a major producer. Year-on-year, exports fell by 27%.

Declines in locomotives and rail stock are also noteworthy, with a 16% year-on-year drop. Here, the figures are affected by large, one-off deliveries that can distort the overall picture.

Polish export growth in 2025 was almost entirely concentrated in Western markets. Exports increased to all ten of Poland’s largest trading partners, including Germany, the Czech Republic, and France, with the highest growth recorded in Spain and several smaller EU economies. The Western direction remains the key driver of the rebound following a weak 2024.
Eastern markets remain clearly weak, though their weight is limited. Export declines were recorded to Lithuania, Turkey, and China, while trade with Russia and Belarus experienced a sharp collapse, reflecting sanctions and the scaling back of economic relations. These countries now account for only a marginal share of Polish exports.
The composition of export growth is mixed. Alongside genuine export hits, there is a strong re-export effect. The highest growth was seen both in categories with limited domestic production, such as clothing and toys, and in sectors with a solid domestic base, including aircraft and parts, fertilizers, and meat. On the downside, declines were observed in weapons, grain, and locomotives, in some cases driven by one-off or non-trade factors.