Polish exports to Ukraine have doubled, civilian goods included

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Ukraine is becoming an increasingly important trading partner for Poland. In Q1 2026, its share in Poland’s total exports reached 3.8% year on year. This made it the seventh-largest export market for Polish goods. On a year-on-year basis, the value of goods shipped to Ukraine rose by 13.2%, the strongest growth among Poland’s top ten trading partners.

Since the start of the war, exports to Ukraine have more than doubled. In 2021, their value stood at EUR 6.3 billion, rising to EUR 13.4 billion in 2025, and to EUR 13.9 billion over the past 12 months – from April 2025 to March 2026. A three-month rolling average shows that there were periods when Ukraine’s share in Polish exports exceeded 4%.

The largest export category to Ukraine was mineral products, primarily fuels, accounting for 18.5% of total exports over the past 12 months. This was followed by machinery and mechanical appliances, and electrical equipment (16.5%), as well as vehicles, aircraft and vessels (15.4%). Together, these three categories accounted for half of total exports. Other important groups included chemicals (8.5%) and weapons and ammunition (7.4%).

It is worth noting that sections in foreign trade classification are the broadest categories used, with a total of 21.

Which goods are driving the growth?

Of the 21 sections, exports in as many as 20 were higher over the past 12 months than in 2021. In value terms, the strongest increases were recorded in mineral products (up by EUR 2.2 billion, or 49%), vehicles, aircraft and vessels (up by EUR 1.4 billion, or 85%), and machinery and mechanical appliances (up by EUR 1.2 billion, nearly 200%). The only category in which exports declined was raw hides and leather products.

In percentage terms, the sharpest increase was recorded in the “works of art, collectors’ pieces and antiques” section. However, this is largely due to the fact that humanitarian aid is also classified under this category. Excluding it, the strongest growth was seen in instruments and apparatus, including optical, photographic, measuring and medical devices. Exports in this category were more than 50 times higher than in 2021. Exports of wood and wood products increased more than eightfold. In both cases, this is primarily the result of a very low base effect.

Export hits

The chart above shows, in a more detailed breakdown using two-digit CN codes, the goods categories that recorded the largest increases in exports. In this classification as well, the strongest growth is visible in fuels and weapons. However, notable increases are also seen in cosmetics and perfumes, as well as fertilizers. This indicates that while the rise in exports is primarily driven by war-related sectors, a growing share of goods shipped to Ukraine also consists of civilian-use products.

Looking at an even more granular level – four-digit CN codes – the largest increases are concentrated in three groups of goods. The first includes items directly used in warfare. These cover petroleum oils (fuels), bombs, drones, aircraft parts, and transmission equipment. These categories recorded the strongest growth.

The second group consists of intermediate goods, such as electricity, power generators and converters, transformers, and coke. Demand for these products is driven by Russia’s sustained attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The third group comprises goods with civilian applications, including fertilizers and skin-care products.

When analyzing these data, one may ask how much of what is shipped to Ukraine is actually produced in Poland, and how much represents re-exports. This is difficult to assess conclusively. In the case of weapons, drones, or aircraft parts, some share may indeed be re-exports. At the same time, a large proportion of the categories that recorded the strongest export growth is manufactured in Poland. This is partially reflected in other data as well, such as figures on industrial production of key manufactured goods.

Exports show what is needed in wartime

The impact of the war on exports is particularly visible in certain categories. The chart above presents selected examples. Before Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Polish exports of drones, aircraft parts, weapons, or electricity were close to zero. After the invasion, exports in these categories surged sharply, and some have now reached significant values in value terms. The monthly value of drones shipped from Poland to Ukraine has recently ranged between approximately EUR 80–100 million. In the case of aircraft parts, it exceeds EUR 30 million per month.

Interestingly, the war has increased demand not only for strictly military goods but also for items such as wood pulp, cigarettes, and other tobacco products. This may, however, simply reflect substitution effects for goods that, before the war, were supplied to Ukraine from Russia.

Ukraine is becoming a key trading partner for Poland. In Q1 2026, Ukraine ranked as Poland’s seventh-largest export market, with a 3.8% share. Since the outbreak of the war, the value of exports to the country has more than doubled: from EUR 6.3 billion in 2021 to EUR 13.9 billion over the past 12 months.
Exports dominated by fuels, machinery and vehicles. The largest export category consists of mineral products, mainly fuels (18.5%), followed by machinery and mechanical appliances (16.5%) and vehicles (15.4%). Weapons and ammunition also account for a significant share – 7.4% of total exports.
The war is shaping export structure, but growth is not limited to military goods. Before the invasion, exports of drones, aircraft parts or electricity were close to zero. Today, the monthly value of drones shipped to Ukraine alone amounts to EUR 80–100 million. However, growth is also visible in civilian categories such as fertilizers, cosmetics and tobacco products.