Poland’s economic snapshot for November 2025

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

At the start of each month, we take stock of the Polish economy, reviewing key macroeconomic indicators, as well as developments on the stock market and in the PLN. The real-economy figures discussed here refer to September, while the financial-market data cover October.

Real economy: recovery remains on track

The latest data show that Poland’s economy continues to rebound. All major activity indicators strengthened in October. Retail sales in constant prices rose by 5.4% year-on-year, seasonally adjusted industrial output was 1.1% higher than a year earlier, and construction and assembly production grew by 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

What does this tell us? Above all, consumers remain willing to spend – particularly on durable goods. The strongest gains were recorded in home furnishings, up 15.1% y/y, while sales of cars, motorcycles and parts also jumped by 10.4%. Households appear to be catching up on big-ticket purchases postponed during the period of elevated inflation.

A key macroeconomic question for 2026 is whether this surge in demand for durable goods will persist. The answer will depend partly on the rise in household savings seen in recent quarters and on further rate cuts. Pulling in the other direction are slower wage growth and a potentially lasting increase in the propensity to save following the pandemic and the inflation shock.

Industry in increasingly better shape. Is the long-awaited construction boom finally on the horizon?

Secondly, Poland’s industrial sector is slowly emerging from a period of stagnation. Between January and October, year-on-year industrial output fell in only one month; in all others, it expanded, albeit unevenly across subsectors. In October, the strongest gains were recorded in the production of investment goods (up 9.2% y/y) and non-durable consumer goods (up 4.2%). Output of durable consumer goods, by contrast, slipped by 0.6%, reflecting weaker demand.

Much of the sector’s momentum stems from an ongoing investment cycle, driven by the energy transition, digitalisation and spending on artificial intelligence. Here, the impact of funds from the National Recovery Plan appears more tangible than in construction. The slump in durable-goods production, however, continues to mirror subdued demand in export markets.

Thirdly, the long-awaited rebound in construction investment may finally be taking shape. Rising construction and assembly output suggests that this time the sector’s recovery could prove more durable.

Consumption remains the main engine of growth, accounting for more than half of the overall increase. Its contribution stood at 2%, down from 2.6% in the previous quarter. Public spending was the second-strongest driver, adding 1.5%, while investment contributed a further 1.1%.

A welcome development is the first positive contribution of net exports to growth since early 2024. Exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year, while imports increased by 5.9% - a solid performance given the only modest recovery among Poland’s key trading partners.

Inflation, interest rates and wage growth decline

One of the most notable trends in recent months has been the easing of inflationary pressures. According to preliminary figures from Statistics Poland (GUS), consumer inflation in December stood at just 2.4% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in October and almost perfectly aligned with the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target of 2.5% ± 1 percentage point.

This has been mirrored in interest rates. Between January and November, the NBP’s reference rate fell by 1.5 percentage points, reaching 4.25% in November. The real interest rate – after accounting for inflation – hovered near 2%. This suggests room for further cuts, with the reference rate potentially easing to around 3.50% in 2026.

The fall in inflation stems from several factors, including a marked slowdown in wage growth. In the third quarter, average wages rose by 7.5%, down from 8.8% in Q2 and a hefty 13.4% a year earlier. Further deceleration is likely in the coming months, driven in part by modest increases in the minimum wage and public-sector pay (both at 3%). This should play a significant role in anchoring inflation at a low and stable level.

Financial sector: the zloty stays strong despite rate cuts

A striking feature of recent months has been the continued strength of the zloty, even in the face of monetary easing. This year, the currency has remained stable against both the dollar and the euro, following a real appreciation of roughly 20% once inflation differentials are taken into account. Such resilience, despite lower interest rates, suggests that the zloty’s stronger valuation may prove durable.

November brought only modest gains on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The broad WIG index inched up by 0.3% compared with the end of October, while the WIG20 and mWIG40 each added 0.5%. The sWIG80 lagged, slipping by 1.2% over the month. Overall, the bull run on the WSE appears to have lost some momentum.

Inflation and interest rates fall. Inflation eased to 2.4% in November, while the NBP’s reference rate dropped to 4.25%. With the real interest rate still positive, further cuts could be on the horizon in 2026. Slowing wage growth is helping to keep inflation close to the central bank’s target.
The real economy remains robust. Recent data confirm a clear recovery in the Polish economy. Retail sales, industrial output, and construction are all expanding. Consumers are catching up on larger purchases, while investment—particularly in energy, digitalisation, and AI—is emerging as a key growth driver. According to detailed figures from Statistics Poland (GUS), GDP in Q3 grew a solid 3.8%.
Stable finances: strong zloty, stock market in consolidation. The zloty remains resilient despite interest rate cuts, suggesting the currency’s strength may be lasting. Meanwhile, the Warsaw Stock Exchange saw only modest gains across its main indices, reflecting a period of consolidation.