This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart Retail sales at constant prices rose by 5.3% year on year in December 2025, Statistics Poland (GUS) reported. This is a very strong result, confirming that consumers remain in good financial shape and have both the willingness and the capacity to increase spending.
Interactive chart In December, sales growth was recorded across all categories. As in previous months, the strongest momentum came from durable goods. Sales of household equipment (furniture, consumer electronics, and household appliances) jumped by as much as 19.8% year on year, while sales of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and parts increased by 13.1% year on year.
Growth in these segments reflects persistently strong real wage gains and falling interest rates. On the one hand, consumers are enjoying higher disposable incomes; on the other, the cost of financing credit-based purchases is declining.
Over the whole of 2025, retail sales increased by 4.3% year on year. This should be regarded as a very solid outcome, placing the result in the upper range of forecasts put forward by analysts at the start of the year.
Consumers in good spirits – for now
Improving consumer sentiment is also reflected in Statistics Poland’s (GUS) survey data. In January, the current consumer confidence indicator stood at –9.6, while the leading consumer sentiment indicator came in at –6.7. What matters most, however, is not the absolute levels but how they compare with earlier readings. Both indicators have improved markedly relative to previous months, pointing to a growing sense of financial stability among households.
Interactive chart Both measures are close to their highest levels recorded since the pandemic. The improvement seen in recent months is particularly pronounced in the current consumer confidence indicator. This is likely the result of lower inflation – now increasingly visible to consumers in shops – as well as the previously mentioned cuts in interest rates.
What next?
Much will depend on households’ propensity to save. The December retail sales reading, however, strengthens the case that this propensity may ease somewhat, while the willingness to consume increases.
Strong retail sales figures also reduce the scope for further interest-rate cuts. If the economy is performing well at the current level of rates – the reference rate now stands at 4% - the question arises as to whether additional easing is justified. This argument may carry weight among members of the Monetary Policy Council at its upcoming meetings. That does not mean there will be no rate cuts at all in 2026, but the debate is likely to be pushed back to the spring.
Key Takeaways
- Consumer spending remains a strong growth driver. Retail sales rose by 5.3% year on year in December 2025, with particularly sharp increases in durable goods, reflecting strong real wage growth and easing borrowing costs.
- Consumer confidence is improving visibly. Both current and forward-looking confidence indicators have strengthened and are nearing post-pandemic highs, supported by lower inflation and interest-rate cuts that are increasingly felt by households.
- Strong demand may limit near-term monetary easing. Robust retail sales and resilient consumption reduce the urgency for further interest-rate cuts, potentially delaying additional policy easing until later in 2026.