This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Retail sales in constant prices rose by 3.3% year on year in September, according to Statistics Poland (GUS). This was slightly weaker than in July and August (3.8–3.9%), but still a respectable performance. Seasonal factors provided a modest boost to September’s figures. Adjusted for seasonality, sales increased by 2.9% year on year.
Interactive chart As in previous months, durable goods recorded the strongest growth. Sales of cars, motorcycles and parts rose by 13.1% year on year, while sales of furniture, consumer electronics and household appliances increased by 10.7%. Strong growth was also recorded in other goods (15%) and pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopedic equipment (8.5%). These trends were broadly similar to those observed in August.
Fuel is the key factor
The most significant change concerned fuel sales. Their nominal value increased by 17.9% year on year, even as volumes fell by 9.8% in real terms. This implies a sharp increase in fuel prices of more than 30%.
The reason was the expiry of the Ceny Paliw Niżej (Lower Fuel Prices, or CPN) program at the end of August. Drivers adjusted their behavior accordingly, with many filling up in advance. This boosted fuel sales in August at the expense of September, flattering the previous month’s retail figures while depressing those for September.
Crucially, however, there are still no signs that consumers are cutting back on purchases of other goods. Sales growth in these categories remains strong.
The XYZ view
The CPN programme returned in October after President Karol Nawrocki, contrary to expectations, chose not to veto legislation imposing a windfall profits tax on fuel companies. The programme’s reinstatement should help sustain reasonably strong retail sales growth through the end of the year.
Further ahead, however, the outlook could become more challenging. It remains unclear whether the programme will be extended into early 2027, particularly given the strain on public finances. Moreover, nominal wage growth has been on a downward trend for some time.
So far, higher fuel prices have not visibly spilled over into the prices of other goods and services. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, fell to 3.1% in September from 3.3% in August.
Given the way price pressures spread through the economy, however, such spillovers may only be a matter of time. The beginning of next year could therefore bring a slowdown in consumer spending.