This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart Seen in a broader context, consumption remains stable. Over the past 12 months, only two readings have come in below 3% year-on-year growth.
A good winter for the consumer?
In January, retail sales increased across almost all categories. The sole exception was motor vehicles and related goods. Other durable goods continued to post strong growth. Sales of household furnishings – including furniture, consumer electronics, and home appliances – rose by 10.5% year on year.
Interactive chart The category with the strongest momentum, however, was textiles, clothing, and footwear. Sales in this group surged by as much as 17.6% year on year. One possible factor was the harsh winter, which led to a marked slowdown in construction and assembly output in January. Consumers, by contrast, may have responded to temperatures well below historical norms by purchasing warmer clothing.
January’s retail sales figures confirm the consumer’s strength and resilience in recent months. Over the whole of 2025, retail sales increased by 4.3% year on year – a very solid outcome, placing the result in the upper range of forecasts made by analysts at the start of the year. Even stronger momentum is evident in services output. Data for this segment are released with a longer lag, but the latest available figures (for November 2025) point to growth of 6.2% year on year.
The consumer under competing forces
The interaction of factors shaping consumer behavior in 2026 will be worth watching. On the one hand, January data on nominal wages point to a clear slowdown in growth, to 6.2% year on year. On the other, inflation is also easing (2.2% in January). Even so, growth in real gross wages (adjusted for inflation) will be lower than last year, as the deceleration in nominal pay is likely to outweigh the disinflationary effect.
Interactive chart The savings rate will remain a key variable. According to Eurostat, it has been rising since the second quarter of 2022 – now for 14 consecutive quarters (the latest available data cover the third quarter of 2025). A reversal of this trend would help keep consumption growth at a relatively high level in 2026. It is possible that the increase in the savings rate is temporary, reflecting a need to rebuild financial buffers eroded during the period of high inflation. However, a structural shift cannot be ruled out, linked to the gradual enrichment of Polish society and a stronger preference for long-term saving.
An additional factor supporting consumption is lower interest rates, alongside expectations of further cuts in 2026. These should encourage consumer spending by reducing the cost of consumer credit and lowering deposit rates, which in turn diminishes the appeal of saving in traditional bank instruments.