The long game: How patience shapes success in Poland’s VC market

There is no shortage of talk about investing in startups in Poland, and each new VC fund transaction is displayed and promoted widely. Naturally, expanding an investment portfolio can be seen as a sign of success. Yet the most reliable measure of a fund’s performance is capital exits – so-called “exits.”

On the domestic market, however, exits remain scarce. This is not only true for large, high-profile transactions; smaller deals are also few and far between.

The report “Transactions in the Polish VC Market 2025”, prepared by PFR Ventures and Inovo.vc, listed only nine publicly announced capital exits over the past year. In a way, this provides a snapshot of whether – and how much – Polish investors, who allocate money through VC funds, can realistically expect to earn at this stage.

A measurable indicator of startup investment

The domestic venture capital market cannot currently be described as a “land flowing with milk and honey.” It should be noted, however, that this market is still in a developmental phase. By design, VC fund activity carries the expectation that the largest, individual transactions may more than recoup the total capital contributed by investors.

“Exits are what define a fund’s real success. Put simply, the expected outcome of a fund manager’s work is to return the capital entrusted by investors – with a surplus,” confirms Bartłomiej Gola, managing partner at SpeedUp Ventures and S20.

Interactive chart

Pełny ekran

Few exits in the domestic VC market

Bartłomiej Gola acknowledges, like many other VC sector representatives, that exits remain scarce on the domestic market.

“Remember that the companies delivering the highest returns are usually held in investment portfolios the longest – often eight to ten years. In a fund’s early years, although this is not a strict rule, smaller companies are typically sold first, and their growth potential is limited. Often, these transactions are financed not with cash but with shares or stock in the acquiring company. Returns on smaller companies usually amount to only one- to two-times the invested capital. Looking at the broader development pattern of the VC market, however, I believe the big exits are simply still ahead of us,” Mr. Gola notes.

Some investment exits remain private

The PFR Ventures and Inovo.vc report presented a list of five publicly announced fund exits from Polish startups and four exits by Polish investors from foreign companies.

“It’s also worth looking more closely at what lies behind the exit list. It includes the founders of Callstack, who cashed out and are returning to the ecosystem as angel investors. We also recorded the acquisition of Neptune.ai by OpenAI, which will likely provide a significant boost to Poland’s TDJ, while also releasing talent – experience shows that these individuals often return with new projects. Meanwhile, another company from our portfolio was acquired for over USD 1 billion,” says Rozalia Urbanek, board member for investments at PFR Ventures.

She adds that some transactions take place away from the public eye.

“This concerns not only the transaction value, which often remains undisclosed, but also the very fact of the sale. In 2025, we identified nine such private exits among our portfolio funds. On top of that, one should consider what may be happening in the portfolios of now-inactive funds under the BridgeAlfa umbrella [a program previously financed by the National Centre for Research and Development],” Ms. Urbanek notes.

OpenAI acquires Polish company Neptune.ai

One of the most notable public exits of 2025 was the aforementioned Neptune.ai transaction. The company, which develops a tool for monitoring, analyzing, and comparing experiments in machine learning model training, was acquired by OpenAI, a global leader in advanced AI model development. Polish-Israeli fund TDJ Pitango Ventures held a 22% stake in Neptune.ai, having financed the company from its seed round in 2018.

“From the very beginning, we saw enormous potential in the company – both technologically and in its team. Neptune’s solution was built on a deep understanding of the real challenges faced by researchers. This transaction underscores the critical role of tools supporting AI model development, as well as the contribution of Polish innovators,” comments Tomasz Domogała, owner of TDJ, the investment group co-creating the VC fund.

Based on foreign media reports, it appears that Polish investors received a stake in OpenAI as part of the transaction settlement.

Nevertheless, the market remains hungry for spectacular successes. Their scarcity makes it difficult for many VC fund managers to convince private investors to participate in ventures. These investors often prefer to place capital in safer assets that deliver returns over a shorter horizon.

Investor's perspective

The Polish market must mature for larger transactions and exits

The Polish venture capital market still sees few exits. Often, investors do not realize immediate gains – instead of receiving cash, the shares or equity of the startup being sold are exchanged for shares or equity in the acquiring company. In such cases, profit is only realized if these assets increase in value.

A significant portion of exits remain private, partly because the returns were modest – or sometimes even below the original investment threshold – serving instead to limit losses. In my view, announcing an exit benefits the fund – it acts as a kind of business card, a persuasive argument for attracting new investors.

The problem is that Poland lacks sufficient capital. Our largest startups, with the greatest growth potential, often relocate their headquarters abroad – primarily to access larger funding pools. Polish investors usually enter these companies at a very early stage – pre-seed or seed – while later rounds are dominated by foreign funds.

Of course, the Polish VC market has not yet reached an advanced stage of development. It is still growing. In practice, this means international investors do not look to Poland as frequently as, for example, Estonia, which boasts numerous spectacular global successes. Moreover, cultural, linguistic, and mental differences continue to create distance for global investors considering our region. It is often easier for them to identify opportunities in Western European countries, where VC sectors are well established.

I must admit that in the case of the RoomPriceGenie exit, we were fortunate, supported by experience and contacts. The investment was realized after three years. My investment strategy assumes that a 10x return on invested capital is achievable only after holding a company in the portfolio for at least five years.

Mateusz Bodio

managing partner of the R+ fund and founder of RKKVC

The market and investment approaches are slowly evolving

Even considering the current scale of capital injections, high-profile acquisitions remain the exception rather than the rule.

“VC funds, by nature, invest in small, immature companies. If growth is not rapid, or if the technology proves incompatible with competitors’ market solutions, it becomes quite difficult to find buyers. The domestic mergers and acquisitions market is fairly shallow. Potential acquirers are usually sought abroad,” says Bartłomiej Gola.

He is, however, optimistic about a strengthening trend: private equity funds are beginning to shift their focus from traditional businesses to financing technology ventures. In the future, they could play a role in consolidating the digital products and services market, thereby increasing the likelihood of companies finding foreign buyers.

The structure of the Polish VC market is also changing.

“There is an increasing number of growth funds – investing in companies at advanced stages of expansion – and hybrid growth/private equity teams. These groups are willing to reorganize company ownership structures and buy out shares from existing funds. This introduces new potential buyers. That said, funds will always also consider other exits, for example, to a strategic investor,” says Rozalia Urbanek.

She adds that further exits are on the horizon from funds supported by the EU’s Operational Program Intelligent Development (POIR). She expects that in the coming quarters, we will hear about these transactions.

The stock market is not a natural exit route in Poland

When it comes to startup investment exits in Poland, the stock market also plays a limited role.

“It might seem that it should be a natural exit scenario for growing startups – as is the case in the United States. Public markets can offer companies higher valuations than private equity funds or strategic investors. In Poland, however, stock market investors are more interested in dividend-paying companies than in high-growth, riskier assets,” adds Bartłomiej Gola.

Key Takeaways

1. Signals of gradual change are emerging. Despite the limited number of exits, signs of gradual transformation are emerging. The acquisition of Neptune.ai by OpenAI demonstrates that Polish tech companies can attract global players and generate meaningful value for investors. At the same time, growth funds and hybrid VC/private equity players are becoming more prominent, taking over shares from earlier investors. Market consolidation and foreign buyers may also play an increasingly important role. Experts note that further exits are expected in the coming quarters, particularly from funds supported by EU programs.
2. The Polish Venture Capital market is still in its early stages. The Polish venture capital market remains at a relatively early stage of development, which directly translates into a limited number of exits. While funds are steadily building investment portfolios, capital exits remain the true measure of their effectiveness. Data from the PFR Ventures and Inovo.vc report show that in 2025, only nine exits were publicly announced. This means that investors allocating capital through VC funds still have few opportunities to realize substantial returns.
3. The most profitable exits take time. The largest and most lucrative exits require patience, as companies generating the highest returns often remain in fund portfolios for eight to ten years. In a fund’s early years, smaller companies are more frequently sold; these entities offer limited growth potential and relatively modest returns of 1–2x the invested capital. Some transactions are private or yield only modest gains, which can understate the perceived scale of exits. Many deals are also settled in the acquiring company’s shares rather than cash, further complicating the picture. As a result, the market may appear weaker than it truly is.