Wage growth jumps in December. Real pay rises even faster

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

In December, the average gross wage in Poland’s enterprise sector reached PLN 9,583.31 (around EUR 2,200), according to the latest release from Statistics Poland (GUS). That marked a sharp acceleration in nominal pay growth to 8.6% year on year, up from 7.1% in November.

The result came as a surprise. Market forecasts had pointed to growth of just 6.9%, making December’s figure the strongest since mid-year. In broader terms, it means that wage growth over the whole of the fourth quarter was broadly in line with the previous quarter (7.4%), though still weaker than in the first half of the year (8.6%).

With inflation running at 2.4%, the unexpected pickup in nominal wages has once again widened the gap between pay growth and prices. As a result, real wages rose by about 6%, implying that consumers’ purchasing power increased compared with the previous month—a development that should support a further short-term economic recovery.

XYZ’s outlook

The key question is whether the recent acceleration in wage growth compared with previous months signals persistent pay pressure - or whether it is a one-off effect. This distinction matters in particular for monetary policy. On balance, the latter interpretation seems more plausible. Both seasonal factors and the year-end turning point in the data-release calendar argue in its favor.

In 2026, additional forces are likely to restrain wage growth - and thus inflationary pressure. Most notably, pay rises in the public sector and increases in the minimum wage are set to be relatively modest by the standards of recent years, at around 3%. The open question is how far this will feed through into wage dynamics in the enterprise sector.

At the same time, strong real wage growth has not so far translated into higher inflationary pressure. The savings rate remains the crucial variable here - though data on it are published with a long lag. A potential decline could fuel inflation even if wage growth slows next year. It is also possible, however, that these effects will largely offset one another.

Stronger-than-expected wage growth in December. Average gross wages in Poland’s enterprise sector rose by 8.6% year-on-year, reaching PLN 9,583 (EUR 2,200). The result exceeded forecasts of 6.9% and marked the fastest pace since mid-2025.
Real incomes rising sharply. With inflation at just 2.4%, real wages grew around 6%, boosting household purchasing power and supporting short-term economic recovery.
Wage momentum likely to cool in 2026. The recent surge appears partly seasonal rather than structural. Modest planned public-sector pay rises and a smaller minimum wage increase (around 3%) should restrain overall wage and inflation pressures this year, though a lower savings rate could still reignite inflation later on.