This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart The figure again came in below market expectations, with forecasts having anticipated a 6.6% rise.
A scenario from early in the year…
Under normal macroeconomic conditions, such data would have pointed toward the scenario outlined at the start of the year. Low wage growth readings would have reinforced the Monetary Policy Council’s (RPP) view that inflationary pressures are easing, paving the way for further monetary policy easing.
All the more so because wage growth across the broader economy is likely even lower. Outside the corporate sector, this indicator also captures smaller firms and the public sector. For them, key benchmarks include the minimum wage increase and the indexation of teachers’, civil servants’, and uniformed services’ salaries – both set at just 3%. The first comprehensive data for the entire economy will be available in May.
… disrupted by geopolitics
But that scenario is now outdated. The reason, of course, is the uncertainty surrounding energy prices following the attacks by Israel and the U.S. on Iran. In recent days, WTI crude oil has been trading around USD 95–100 per barrel, marking an increase of roughly 65% since the start of the year. Meanwhile, natural gas prices on the Dutch TTF exchange – the European price benchmark – have risen by about 90% over the same period.
XYZ perspective: The current scenario
The risk to wage growth over the coming year is skewed downward. Uncertainty over energy prices will restrain companies’ willingness to grant raises and bonuses, as businesses seek to protect margins amid rising indirect costs.
This points to a slowdown in real wage growth. Nominal wages are moderating, while inflation is likely to exceed 3% over the year. The effect will weigh on consumption and slow Poland’s GDP growth relative to expectations. How severe this will be depends on the scale and duration of energy market disruptions linked to the conflict. Markets still anticipate stabilization in the second half of the year – though that expectation diminishes with each passing day.
Over the medium term, beyond a year, rising inflation is likely to spur workers to demand higher wages. Their success will hinge on the tightness of the labor market. Built-in increases embedded in the system – such as the minimum wage and public-sector salaries, largely indexed to past inflation – will also play a role.
In its March inflation report, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) projected 6.4% wage growth across the economy in 2026. Early data from the wider economy suggest this may be optimistic, even absent an external shock. Slower-than-expected wage growth, however, will not prompt interest rate cuts. For that, a resolution of tensions in the Middle East and an easing of the energy shock would be required.