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Weaker export data for November, yet broader perspective looks better

Both Poland’s exports and imports of goods are accelerating when viewed through a lens that smooths short-term fluctuations – namely, the three-month moving average

Marek Skawiński
18.01.2026, 19:23
Poland recorded a goods trade deficit of nearly EUR 1.1 billion in November. By contrast, October saw the highest surplus on the goods account since April 2024, amounting to EUR 0.5 billion. This illustrates the volatility of the data. Photo: Getty Images

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According to new data published by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the value of goods exports for the September–November period rose by 4.8% year-on-year in this view (calculations based on euro-denominated data). This is the fastest pace since the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, imports increased by 4.4% year-on-year, signaling a rebound after slowing in Q3 2025.

November’s data, however, point to a slowdown in export momentum alongside faster import growth. Following robust increases of around 6% year-on-year in September and October, export growth decelerated to 2.7% in November (euro-based data). Import growth, by contrast, accelerated: 3% in September, 3.8% in October, and 4.8% in November year-on-year.

As a result, Poland recorded a goods trade deficit of nearly EUR 1.1 billion in November. By contrast, October saw the highest surplus on the goods account since April 2024, amounting to EUR 0.5 billion. This illustrates the volatility of the data. Analysts at Pekao Bank suggest that a significant factor behind these fluctuations may be imports of military equipment.

In the shadow of the dragon: China’s influence on trade

Growth in exports of non-durable consumer goods and agricultural products – previously the main drivers of foreign sales – proved significantly weaker. Interestingly, the NBP notes in its commentary that rising imports from China have also had a negative impact on goods trade dynamics among EU countries.

On the other hand, this trend has contributed to a decline in the value of imports of durable consumer goods, thanks to lower prices for products manufactured in the People’s Republic. In this way, China is effectively exporting “deflation” to the Western world, helping to moderate inflationary pressures.

Services

The dynamics of services exports and imports indicate a narrowing gap between the two. Imports have historically grown faster than exports, particularly in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. While a difference remains, it is now significantly smaller. Between September and November, the value of services exports increased by 6.7%, while imports rose by 9.2%. It is worth noting, however, that Poland still records a services surplus of around EUR 3.2 billion in November.

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Key Takeaways

  1. Goods trade shows volatility: Poland’s exports slowed in November while imports accelerated, resulting in a goods trade deficit of nearly EUR 1.1 billion, highlighting short-term fluctuations.
  2. China’s influence is double-edged: Rising imports from China weigh on EU trade dynamics but also lower prices for durable goods, effectively exporting “deflation” and helping contain inflation.
  3. Services remain a stronghold: Despite faster import growth, Poland continues to record a robust services surplus of around EUR 3.2 billion, signaling resilience in this sector.