Who controls Poland’s housing market? Data debunk the myth

The share of Polish capital in the development sector remains high, although public debate often suggests otherwise. The latest data from JLL make it possible to describe precisely the ownership structure of companies operating in Poland’s residential market. Roughly three quarters of total sales are generated by developers controlled by Polish capital. The key question, therefore, is not so much the structure itself, but the reasons behind it—and its implications for the housing market as a whole.

Dominance of Polish capital nationwide

According to JLL’s analysis of more than 750 of the largest development companies active across Poland’s six main residential markets, firms backed by Polish capital accounted for 73.7% of apartment sales in 2023–2024. The remainder of the market was held by developers with foreign capital, originating from various European countries and beyond.

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From a nationwide perspective, the dominance of domestic developers remains clear, despite the significant presence of foreign capital in the largest metropolitan areas.

Why does the myth of “foreign dominance” persist?

Despite clear data, the claim that foreign capital dominates Poland’s residential market regularly resurfaces in public debate. Its roots lie less in actual market shares and more in the visibility of large-scale projects and the media attention surrounding high-profile transactions.

“The data do not support the thesis that foreign capital dominates Poland’s housing market. This is a clear example of the gap between facts and the prevailing narrative,” says Krystyna Pietruszyńska, Director of Residential Investment at JLL.

The presence of international developers is particularly noticeable in the largest cities - both in the urban landscape and in media coverage - which encourages generalizations that fail to reflect the structure of the market at the national level.

“This creates the impression that they exert broad control over the market. It is worth emphasizing, however, that the largest players in the sector have Polish roots - such as Dom Development and Develia, both of which are listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange,” notes Dominik Stojek, Partner in Advisory and Head of the Real Estate Group at Deloitte.

Spectacular transactions as a narrative “amplifier”

The perception of dominance is further reinforced by the nature of transactions carried out by foreign investors, which are often high-profile and attract significant public attention.

“The biggest players are the most visible - on the stock exchange, in the press, in advertising, and through sponsorships. This is the result of the concentration of their activity, particularly in large cities. As a consequence, the debate tends to focus on a handful of large corporations,” says Jan Dziekoński, Head of Research and BIG DATA at RynekPierwotny.pl.

At the same time, Bogusław Półtorak points out that the presence of foreign capital does not necessarily imply risk.

“International companies have greater access to financing,” the academic notes.

At the same time, their activity signals the attractiveness of Poland’s housing market.

“A worse scenario would be a lack of interest from such investors, as that would mean the market is not perceived as offering long-term potential,” emphasizes Bogusław Półtorak, Professor at the Wroclaw University of Economics.

Metropolises as a natural environment for foreign capital

Although the share of foreign capital remains limited at the national level, its concentration in the largest cities is clearly visible. This, however, does not stem from domestic firms being crowded out, but rather from the business models of international investors and the specific characteristics of large residential markets.

“Metropolises offer the project scale that global funds and large development groups are looking for,” says Krystyna Pietruszyńska of JLL.

Large markets also provide higher sales liquidity and more predictable demand, making it possible to carry out multi-stage projects in which risk and costs are spread over time.

“These are deep markets, with high absorption capacity and more stable demand dynamics,” adds JLL’s Director of Residential Investment.

Beyond the major cities: a different demand profile and a different scale

Outside the largest metropolitan areas, the market structure changes fundamentally. Projects are smaller, demand is more fragmented, and sales momentum is harder to predict - factors that significantly reduce the appeal of such locations for international capital.

“Outside the main cities, the activity of foreign investors is marginal,” notes Krystyna Pietruszyńska.

Additional barriers to entry are highlighted by Dominik Stojek, who points out that administrative and planning considerations play an important role in investment decisions by foreign players, particularly beyond the largest urban centers.

“The concentration of foreign capital in Warsaw and a handful of other large cities stems primarily from the scale of projects being delivered, the greater absorption capacity of metropolitan markets, and easier access to financing. In smaller cities, entry by foreign investors is hindered by additional barriers, such as local specificities, complex administrative procedures, or the absence of binding local zoning plans. As a result, outside the largest agglomerations, the share of foreign capital remains marginal,” emphasizes the representative of Deloitte.

Risk and selectivity in choosing locations

Entering smaller markets requires greater organizational commitment and deeper knowledge of local conditions—something that, for many foreign investors, lacks economic justification.

“International owners approach new markets cautiously, often due to demographic assessments and demand risk. The result is a concentration of capital in a few metropolises, with no presence in cities such as Bydgoszcz, Rzeszów, Olsztyn, or Lublin,” says Jan Dziekoński.

Another factor is the structure of local land markets.

“Outside the metropolises, land availability is greater, which favors local companies that hold land banks acquired earlier or at lower prices,” notes Bogusław Półtorak.

Family-owned firms and the market’s local character

Poland’s development sector is also deeply rooted at the local level. Unlike in many Western European markets, where international capital groups dominate, a large share of housing supply in Poland is created by family-owned companies that have grown gradually over decades. This ownership model supports longer decision-making horizons and increases the sector’s resilience to economic cycles and regulatory change.

“The share of developers backed by Polish capital - including around seventy family-owned firms among the country’s hundred largest players - is one of the factors stabilizing the housing market,” says Krystyna Pietruszyńska of JLL.

In practice, this means that investment decisions tend to be based on long-term risk and return considerations rather than short-term financial targets. Local firms are more likely to focus on gradually expanding their land banks, reinvesting profits, and maintaining liquidity - an approach that helps stabilize housing supply.

“Companies that have operated for many years possess deep knowledge of local markets, which makes it easier for them to respond to regulatory changes and economic cycles,” the expert adds.

A long-term horizon instead of an exit strategy

This model distinguishes family-owned companies from some institutional investors, for whom the timing of an exit from a project or a market is often a central element of strategy.

“Family-owned firms are less likely to take speculative risks and tend to base their growth on the gradual expansion of land portfolios and the reinvestment of profits,” emphasizes Krystyna Pietruszyńska.

Such a conservative approach serves as a buffer during periods of heightened uncertainty.

“The predominance of companies operating with a long-term horizon increases the sector’s resilience to economic fluctuations and regulatory changes,” adds Dominik Stojek, Partner in Advisory and Head of the Real Estate Group at Deloitte.

A diversified market structure

Poland’s development market is highly fragmented. Alongside the largest firms operates a broad group of smaller players active at the local level.

“The size of the market can be estimated at around 1,500 companies, more than 700 of which present their offerings on RynekPierwotny.pl,” says Jan Dziekoński.

This fragmentation translates into a wide divergence in adaptive capacity.

“For many smaller entities, the transition to new regulatory requirements - including price transparency - has been more challenging than for more institutionalized firms with foreign capital participation,” Jan Dziekoński adds.

Two waves in the development of the housing market

The current market structure is also the result of at least two distinct waves of development. The first led to consolidation in the largest agglomerations, where large companies dominate—including listed developers and international players.

“The numerical predominance of family-owned firms is the outcome of the second wave of market development: expansion beyond the major cities and the revival of investment activity in local markets. Around one third of residential construction in Poland is still carried out under a self-build system, which favors the operation of smaller, often family-run development companies,” notes Bogusław Półtorak, Professor at the Wroclaw University of Economics.

Differences between cities

The share of Polish capital varies significantly by location. The lowest level was recorded by JLL in Warsaw, where domestic developers account for 55.5% of the market. Higher shares are seen in Wrocław (66.1%), Poznań (68.8%), and the Tri-City area (79.7%).

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In Kraków, developers backed by Polish capital represent 84.8% of the market, while in Łódź the figure reaches 87.6%. Outside the six largest agglomerations, domestic developers account for as much as 91.3% of the market, underscoring the very limited presence of foreign capital in smaller cities.

The JLL report also sheds light on the ownership structure of the largest players in the market. Of the hundred biggest residential developers operating in Poland, as many as 70 are family-owned companies backed by Polish capital. The data cover market leaders in terms of scale of operations and apartment sales during the period analyzed.

This means that a substantial part of the sector remains under the control of domestic owners, often present in the same markets for many years. Such an ownership structure has a tangible impact on how the entire sector operates.

Key Takeaways

1. Polish capital dominates nationwide. JLL data clearly show that nearly 75% of Poland’s residential market is controlled by companies with Polish capital. Outside the largest urban agglomerations, their share exceeds 90%, pointing to a very limited presence of foreign developers in smaller markets.
2. Foreign capital gravitates to where the market offers scale and predictability. The presence of international developers is largely confined to Warsaw and a handful of the largest regional cities. This reflects business models, access to financing, project scale, and administrative barriers—rather than any crowding-out of domestic firms.
3. The narrative of the “dominance” of foreign capital is a matter of perception, not market structure. The impression of a strong foreign presence is amplified by high-profile, media-friendly transactions and the visibility of the largest projects in major cities. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the market—both in numerical terms and geographically—remains in the hands of Polish developers, often family-owned businesses.