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Poland posts the highest deficit in the EU this year. Debt to rise to 65% of GDP

As most EU countries tighten their belts, Poland is moving in the opposite direction - recording the bloc’s highest deficit and rapidly rising debt.

Marek Skawiński
26.04.2026, 09:48
Trams pass the Palace of Culture and Science, right, and skyscraper office buildings in downtown Warsaw, Poland, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. The central bank halted interest rate cuts after the Oct. 15 parliamentary election unexpectedly brought the pro-European Union opposition to power, along with their promises to boost budget spending. Photographer: Damian Lemaski/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Over the past two years, Poland has pursued the most expansionary fiscal policy in the EU. Photo: Damian Lemaski/Bloomberg via Getty Images

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2025

Poland’s general government deficit reached 7.3% of GDP in 2025, according to Statistics Poland (GUS). Once again, this exceeds the Ministry of Finance’s projection in the Budget Act (6.9%). It is also 1.8 percentage points higher than envisaged in the autumn 2024 fiscal-structural plan. The deviation from the planned path has been made possible by the EU’s defense clause.

The deficit has been higher only once in the past 30 years – and only just. In 2010 it exceeded the current figure by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 7.4% of GDP. At the time, however, Poland was grappling with the aftershocks of the 21st century’s largest financial crisis.

Over the past two years, Poland has pursued the most expansionary fiscal policy in the EU. This is illustrated by the accompanying chart, which tracks changes in the general government balance since 2023. Poland’s deficit has widened by 2.1 percentage points. Over the same period, the EU average moved in the opposite direction, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points.

…and 2026

EU member states (with the exception of Bulgaria and Slovenia) have also presented their projected deficits for the current year. Poland is set to record the largest gap between revenues and expenditures, at 6.8% of GDP. This would put it ahead of Romania, which is undergoing relatively strong fiscal consolidation. As is often the case, the figure is higher than that envisaged in the 2026 Budget Act (by 0.3 percentage points of GDP).

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Whether this materializes remains to be seen. What may give cause for concern is the government’s persistent optimism in successive notifications. In April 2025, the notification projected Poland’s deficit at 6.3% of GDP. The outturn has thus proved worse by as much as 1 percentage point. Poland’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 59.7% in 2025. According to the latest notification, it is expected to reach 65.1% of GDP by end-2026.

It is also worth noting that the current year will be marked by a strong fiscal expansion in Germany. The deficit is set to rise from 2.7% of GDP to 4.2% - an increase of 1.5 percentage points. This should provide a meaningful boost to consumer demand in Poland’s western neighbor and, indirectly, to Polish exports.