Who trusts whom in Europe - and why it matters for growth

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Mutual trust supports trade and investment: it lowers costs, speeds up decision-making and reduces risk. We examine whom Poles trust the most and the least – and whether relations with Germany are still shaped by history.

A high level of social trust is widely seen as the foundation of social capital – a resource that, in practice, “lubricates” the economy. It enables transactions to be concluded at lower cost, with fewer safeguards and in less time. Where trust is high, a word, a reputation and the continuity of relationships are enough.

In low-trust countries, the picture is different. Contracting parties more often rely on formal protections: complex agreements, costly legal advice and multi-layered control procedures. In extreme cases, transactions do not take place at all, even when they could benefit both sides. The cost is not only financial, but also one of missed opportunities.

It is no accident that many economists point to a link between trust and the pace of economic growth. Research suggests that a high level of social trust not only coincides with development, but may also be one of its drivers – facilitating cooperation, investment and innovation.

A subtler question remains: what does trust look like between nations? Does it operate in much the same way as within a single society, or is it shaped by different forces – history, stereotypes and political experience? One way to analyze these relationships in Europe is through a dataset inspired by the work of Barry Eichengreen, one of the most influential economic historians. It allows us to trace how the network of mutual trust is distributed across the continent – and where Poles fit into that picture.

Good to know

The dataset captures the level of trust that residents of 30 European countries placed in people from other countries in 2022. The data were collected through nationwide online surveys conducted in cooperation with the research firm Respondi.

The study’s key question was: “I would like to ask you how much you trust people from different countries. For each of them, please indicate whether you have a high level of trust, some trust, little trust, or no trust at all.” The survey is bilateral in nature – French respondents rate Germans, and vice versa. This yields as many as 900 (30 × 30) observations on mutual trust levels. The core variable is the share of responses indicating “high trust” toward residents of another country.

The country whose respondents express a level of trust is referred to as the “origin country.” The country toward which that trust is directed is the “destination country.”

XYZ based on Eichengreen, B. & Saka, O. (2026). Cultural Stereotypes of Multinational Banks. Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 24, Issue 2, p. 567–609.

1. Whom do Europeans trust?

The chart below shows how much residents of European countries trust citizens of other nations. The results are averaged across respondents from 30 countries. This means that, on average, 40.9% of respondents believe that Swedes can be trusted to a high degree. It is therefore a measure of trust toward the “destination country.”

Nordic countries top the ranking, occupying the first five places. This is consistent with findings on so-called generalized trust – these countries rank among the global leaders. High levels of social trust are often described as “Nordic gold.”

They are followed by Western and continental European countries (the Benelux, Austria and Germany), then Ireland and the United Kingdom, and finally Southern European countries (France, Italy and Spain). The average across all countries surveyed stands at around 24%.

The lowest levels of trust are observed in Central and Eastern Europe – for none of these countries does the indicator exceed 20%. Poland performs relatively well within the region, reaching levels comparable to the Baltic states and Czechia. Romania and Bulgaria post noticeably lower scores. A broader pattern is also evident: the higher a country’s GDP per capita (PPP), the higher the level of trust in its citizens.

2. Which countries trust more – and which less?

Let us now look at the reverse perspective: how much residents of individual countries trust other nations. This is a measure of trust expressed by the “origin country” toward the rest of the world, showing which societies are more open and inclined to extend trust – and which remain more reserved.

As the chart suggests, the picture is not straightforward. Two Nordic countries – Iceland and Norway – top the ranking, but others from the region sit closer to the middle (such as Denmark and Finland). Germany also ranks highly, with the average level of trust in other nations exceeding 31%. Notably, some Central and Eastern European countries also come in above the sample average (24%), including Poland (27%).

3. Whom do Poles trust?

In absolute terms, Poles place the most trust in Norwegians (41%) and Finns (37%) – as well as in themselves (37%). The lowest levels of trust are reserved for Cypriots (15%) and Romanians (12%).

More revealing, however, is the relative perspective: whom Poles trust more or less than other Europeans do. In the case of Finns, assessments are close to the European average (around 36%). Yet some countries stand out clearly in Polish perceptions.

It is no surprise that Poles trust one another more than other nations trust their own citizens – a pattern visible across all countries in the sample. Against the European backdrop, Poles show particularly high trust in their southern neighbors – the Czechs and Slovaks. On average, 18% of Europeans express high trust in Czechs, compared with as much as 35% in Poland. Poles also rate the British, Hungarians, Italians and Lithuanians relatively more favorably.

The authors of the study also developed a composite measure of “bias,” which takes into account both Polish responses and average ratings across other countries. The results largely confirm the earlier observations. Compared with the European baseline, Poles are most critical of Germans, as well as Swedes and Austrians.

Focusing on relative assessments, it becomes clear that Poles are more critical than other Europeans primarily of Germans. To a lesser extent, this also applies to Swedes and Austrians. These differences are visible not only against other countries’ average ratings, but also relative to the overall level of trust declared by Poles themselves.

4. Who trusts Poles?

A parallel analysis of trust toward Poles shows that in only three countries – apart from Poland itself – the share of responses indicating “high trust” exceeds the average for other nations. These are Lithuania, Hungary and Slovakia.

In absolute terms, Poles are rated most favorably by Icelanders (46%), and least favorably by the French (with just 9% declaring “high trust”). It is worth noting, however, that the French tend to exhibit relatively low levels of trust toward other nations in general, which also affects their assessment of Poland.

In relative terms, the lowest level of trust toward Poles is recorded in Germany. While the average level of trust in other nations there stands at around 31%, it drops to just 15% in the case of Poland.

Poland is also rated relatively less favorably by Nordic countries (with the exception of Iceland), as well as by Austria and the Benelux countries. This suggests that in parts of Western and Northern Europe, Poland is still viewed with more reserve than the average country.

An interesting observation is the asymmetry in relations with Czechia. Although – apart from their own country – Poles rate Czechs the highest, this trust is not fully reciprocated. The bias measure remains positive (0.03), but is clearly lower than in the opposite direction (0.14). In other words, while the relationship is positive, it is not symmetrical.

5. In-group bias

As noted, a higher level of trust toward one’s own compatriots is a universal pattern. The question, however, is where this “home bias” is strongest – and how Poland compares. This helps illuminate not just the level of trust, but also its structure: whether it is broadly distributed or heavily concentrated within national communities.

As the chart shows, the highest relative levels of trust toward their own citizens – compared with their assessments of other countries – are declared by the Irish, the Portuguese and the residents of Luxembourg. Notably, the top of the ranking is dominated by smaller countries, often located on the periphery of Europe’s main centers. Iceland is the exception.

Poland sits in the lower half of the ranking. It is also worth noting that Europe’s largest countries – such as France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom – rank among those with relatively the lowest positive in-group bias toward their own citizens.

6. Key pairs

Which countries place the greatest trust in one another? Among the 870 pairs analyzed (excluding domestic relationships), the highest level of relative trust is declared by Greeks toward Cypriots. The pattern may be familiar to followers of the Eurovision Song Contest: the two countries routinely award each other top marks, a tendency that is also reflected in trust data.

Other strong trust relationships include pairs of countries linked by a shared history – such as Czechia and Slovakia (until 1991), or Norway and Denmark (until 1814) – as well as those bound by geographic proximity and common interests, such as the Baltic states.

At the opposite end are relationships marked by historical conflict. The strongest negative stereotype is exhibited by Poles toward Germans, although the reverse relationship also ranks among the top five. Similar tensions are visible in the case of Greeks toward Germans.

7. The long shadow of history

The economic historian Hans-Joachim Voth has argued that old animosities resurfaced between Greece and Germany during the eurozone crisis. In Greek regions affected by German atrocities during the Second World War, sales of German cars declined markedly in 2010–12.

Germany remains Poland’s largest trading partner. To assess whether the full potential of this relationship is being realized, however, one would need to consider a counterfactual scenario – what trade would look like in the absence of historical tensions. A growing body of research suggests that bilateral trust has a tangible impact on the scale of trade and investment between countries.

Only in three countries – Lithuania, Hungary and Slovakia – does the level of trust toward Poles exceed the average for other nations. Poles are rated most positively by Icelanders (46%) and least positively by the French (9%). In relative terms, Germans express the lowest level of trust toward Poles: although they trust other nations at an average level of 31%, this figure falls to just 15% in the case of Poland.
Europeans place the highest trust in residents of Nordic countries, which occupy the top positions in the ranking. They are followed by Western and continental European states (the Benelux, Austria and Germany), then Ireland and the United Kingdom, and finally Southern Europe (France, Italy and Spain). The lowest levels of trust are directed toward residents of Central and Eastern Europe.
In absolute terms, Poles trust Norwegians the most (41%) and Finns (37%), as well as themselves (37%). The lowest levels of trust are expressed toward Cypriots (15%) and Romanians (12%). In relative terms, Poles stand out for their higher trust in Czechs and Slovaks, while the most critical assessments concern Germans, as well as Swedes and Austrians.