This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart This was the third consecutive year in which Poland was the larger exporter. In previous years, however, the difference was marginal: in 2023, Poland’s exports exceeded Russia’s by USD 4 billion (EUR 3.4 billion), and in 2024 by just USD 1 billion (EUR 0.9 billion). Last year, by contrast, the gap reached USD 51 billion (EUR 43.5 billion) – more than 10% above Russia’s exports.
The longer-term picture makes the significance of this shift clear. In 1995, Russia exported more than three times as much as Poland. That makes Poland’s progress all the more striking, particularly given that Russia’s economy is two and a half times larger than Poland’s.
Interactive chart The contrast is even starker when exports are measured on a per-capita basis. Poland’s exports amounted to USD 14,200 (EUR 12,100) per person, compared with just USD 3,200 (EUR 2,700) in Russia. In 1995, the two countries were at broadly similar levels on this measure. Since then, however, the gap has steadily widened.
The importance of exports
Interactive chart The role of exports in the two economies has also changed significantly. In Russia, exports as a share of GDP rose rapidly in the late 1990s. In 2000, they accounted for 44% of GDP, but the ratio has been on a clear downward trend ever since. In 2025, it reached its lowest level, at just 18%.
In Poland, by contrast, the ratio has declined in recent years, but over the longer term it has been rising. In 1995, exports accounted for 23% of GDP. By 2025, that figure had reached 50%.
Commodities and sanctions versus diversified growth
The convergence in export values between Poland and Russia has two main causes. The first is the steady development of Poland’s export sector, spanning both goods and services. A range of factors has contributed to this, but the most important direct driver has been the huge inflow of foreign investment. Poland’s exports are among the most diversified in the world in terms of their composition.
The second factor is the sanctions imposed on the Russian economy following its invasion of Ukraine. They have made it harder for Russia to sell energy commodities – its main export product – to global markets. Russia’s extreme dependence on commodity exports, in turn, stems from its neglect of other industries over the past several decades.
In 2024, energy commodities accounted for more than 60% of Russia’s total merchandise exports. China and India are their main buyers. This is evidence that Western sanctions are working, at least to some extent.