Beer in transition: Carlsberg Poland CEO on declining alcohol, growing innovation

Magdalena Brzózka (XYZ): How would you assess the current image of the beer industry?

Mieszko Musiał, CEO of Carlsberg Poland: I feel there is a kind of competition in public debate – who can criticize beer most sharply, who can make the harshest statement – without much reflection on whether these measures make any sense or actually achieve anything. By now, all irrational anti-beer arguments seem to have surfaced.

As CEO of Carlsberg Poland and current president of the Polish Brewers Association, I support measures that genuinely matter in reducing alcohol consumption. I am also a citizen, a father, and someone who feels responsible for what happens in society.

Yes, I represent beer producers, but I also believe – and this is no hypocrisy – that this category must be approached responsibly. We support measures aimed at eliminating pathological behaviors rather than triggering senseless, nationwide hysteria.

A good example is the nighttime alcohol ban, which we support. Another issue is the notorious promotions with freebies – today’s real plague for the industry. I often hear the narrative that “bad breweries” are behind these practices, whereas reality is more complex. The industry struggles not because it doesn’t want to address this, but because competition law prevents us from forbidding retailers from running certain promotions. A situation where someone goes to a store for five beers and leaves with ten because five were free is, in my view, pathological and can encourage irresponsible consumer behavior.

On the other hand, the topic of banning beer sales at petrol stations is highly media-friendly but practically ineffective. Such a ban will not meaningfully change alcohol consumption; it will only hurt the business results of station networks and their owners. This is not an area that can really impact the problem at hand.

Non-alcoholic beer: The industry’s lifeline

Are non-alcoholic beers saving the industry’s image today?

Increasingly, I hear the claim that non-alcoholic beers are a clever industry ploy to lure people into drinking. That is a narrative I would never have thought of myself, because we are seeing exactly the opposite.

There were some elements of support for the beer category, as low-alcohol beverages were considered socially less harmful than high-alcohol ones. The result was per capita consumption reaching German-Czech levels. From that point, the only direction is downward – and that is precisely what we are observing today.

We see non-alcoholic beer as a strategy for moving away from alcohol. These products target people who used to drink more but, for various reasons, no longer want to. That’s why they choose non-alcoholic products, which still retain the beloved taste of beer.

Post-COVID, we benefited from a reduced VAT rate on non-alcoholic products, which supported growth in this segment. That period is now ending, and we are returning to the standard 23% VAT. On top of that comes the sugar tax, whose purported health benefits are negligible – in practice, it is just another fiscal levy. Current proposals even talk about a “sweetness tax” rather than a sugar tax. If public health were truly the concern, we could discuss alternatives to sweetening agents, not just sugar. But this is about revenue, not health.

At the end of the day, if all these measures come into effect, consumers will see exactly the same product on the shelf. The only difference will be price. When you add all these burdens together, the product could be roughly 50% more expensive. VAT thus becomes another nail in the coffin for our industry.

Beer on a downward trend

In the past 12 months, Poles spent nearly PLN 51.6 billion (EUR 10.8 billion) on alcohol, of which PLN 22.6 billion (EUR 4.7 billion) went to beer and cider, so 4.2% less than in 2024. Does the industry have a strategy for these declines? Is there still a business “leg” to develop, or must we accept the trend?

I think some elements must be accepted. Poland started from very high alcohol consumption – both spirits and beer. The country has been transitioning from a vodka nation to a beer nation, meaning low-alcohol beverages. There were even some measures supporting beer, as low-alcohol drinks were considered socially less harmful. The result was per capita consumption reaching German-Czech levels. From there, decline is inevitable – and that’s exactly what we see today.

Demographics also play a role. We are fewer and older, which affects consumption patterns. There is a clear shift in preferences among younger generations.

Since the pandemic, there has been an unofficial contest for the “worst year” for the beer industry. 2020 seemed the worst due to lockdowns—the hospitality sector took a heavy hit and never fully recovered. Then came the financial crisis and its consequences. Meanwhile, the pandemic altered young people’s social habits: interactions moved online, gradually diminishing beer’s role as a social binder.

Today, younger generations want more control over their lives and relate to alcohol differently than my generation or that of my parents. They have social models for gatherings without alcohol – which is positive. My only concern is when alcohol is replaced by chemical “escapes.” I welcome the growing awareness, sobriety, and responsibility among young people, provided there are no hidden pitfalls.

We are not in favor of promoting widespread drinking for profit. That is why we have embraced the “other leg” of non-alcoholic beer. We have observed the phenomenon of the non-alcoholic segment dynamically gaining market share. Consumers choose beer for taste, not alcohol content.

From a pragmatic perspective, if a substitute for alcohol emerges – brewed naturally with a “short label” of just three ingredients – it should be supported, or at least not hindered. Yet, apparently, this is contentious. Non-alcoholic beer today seems to have worse press than miniature spirits. I am puzzled why spirit producers do not disclose their ingredients. If the average Pole saw the sugar content in a flavored miniature spirit, they would be shocked. I do not understand why this category is exempt from such regulations.

The future of the beer industry

So what lies ahead for beer?

Sales and consumption of alcoholic beer will continue to decline. Alcohol content in beer will also decrease – I am convinced of that.

Today, growth in the non-alcoholic beer segment offsets roughly half of the overall category’s decline. Of course, this growth is leveling off. Yet Poland has suddenly become a major non-alcoholic beer producer in Europe, representing 8% of the market by value. One in ten non-alcoholic beers in Europe comes from Poland. This is a source of pride, especially since we collaborate with Polish farmers and orchardists. The industry purchases about 1% of Poland’s apple harvest – nearly 40,000 tons – for the production of juice used in flavored beers.

I also speak from experience managing Carlsberg’s business in Czechia, where we have a brewery in Žatec. I have always looked with envy at how Czechs openly celebrate hops and beer. By contrast, in 2025 I organized a conference for the 180th anniversary of the Okocim Brewery, attended by many politicians, all of whom were careful not to be photographed with a beer in hand. It borders on hypocrisy, because we are talking about a product for people.

Could the beer market’s future be alcohol-free?

Looking ahead, the non-alcoholic segment seems set to continue growing. There may also be potential for beers with so-called functional benefits – offering something additional. We have experimented with energy-boosting and functional variants, but such products require a clear market entry strategy. Consumers must know where to find them. Someone seeking an energy drink will not look on the beer shelf—this is a natural limitation when expanding product lines.

Was 2025 really one of the worst years for beer?

In terms of volume growth, last year was probably the worst in post-war history. Weather played a role, particularly since in Poland the key consumption occasion is outdoor barbecues (in Finland, it’s the sauna). This year, as even meat industry representatives admitted, there were almost no barbecue weekends. May was the coldest in 30 years, causing enormous stress in retail. Beer is the largest grocery category by value and critical for small stores. When beer sales slump, stores face serious financial problems. After May and June, talks with retailers were tough; everyone hoped July would improve things – but it didn’t.

Weather may account for around 3% of the market, explaining part of the decline. Had summer been warm and dry, outdoor gatherings – and naturally beer consumption, including non-alcoholic—would have been higher.

Another challenge is the deposit return system.

Beer and the deposit system

The deposit system has been controversial for the beer industry…

Let me be clear: in professional discussions I participate in – both in the brewing and broader food sectors – I have never heard anyone claim the system was unnecessary. The process was long, with public consultations allowing feedback. The key question is, however, what actually came of those consultations and how much industry input was heeded.

From the start, we did not understand why returnable bottles were included. If the primary reason was environmental protection, we already had an effective model: over 90% return rate and reduced carbon footprint through direct transport – one truck delivers full bottles and collects empties, no intermediaries. So why change it?

Including returnable bottles in the general deposit system introduces intermediaries and complex accounting rules. Producers must source their own bottles and overpay for recovery. Transport increases, undermining environmental goals. At international forums, as the only Polish CEO of a major beer company, I repeatedly heard politicians admit a mistake had been made – this is not a partisan issue.

Thanks to a regional authority interpretation, Carlsberg Poland can retain its producer-managed system for returnable glass bottles, developed over 20 years. For the general deposit system, we are transitioning with aluminum cans – a complex and costly process. Retailers adopted different strategies: traditional trade moved quickly to show modernity, while large chains extended old packaging as long as possible.

From Carlsberg’s perspective, deposit system costs will be passed to consumers – alongside rising excise, VAT, future extended producer responsibility costs, inflation, and labor costs. All of this suggests double-digit price increases.

2025 for Carlsberg Poland

Although the year was weak for the sector, Carlsberg fared well. Market share increased by roughly 1.4 percentage points to about 20.5% by value, mainly driven by non-alcoholic and flavored beers.

Beer market decline is primarily due to lagers, which account for roughly 80% of the market. Their drop will continue due to broader trends and younger consumers’ taste preferences. We call them the “Milka generation,” raised on sweeter flavors, for whom traditional lager bitterness is hard to accept. They prefer flavored beers such as Somersby or Garage.

We tracked growth segments and invested accordingly. The Garage brand has expanded significantly, positioned as a beer for every stage of a party – from non-alcoholic, to low-alcohol, to stronger variants. Consumers clearly express what they want and how they want it. Availability in points of sale is crucial.

We are pleased with these results, though they were achieved in a very challenging market. As my boss once said: “You have a beautiful house, just in a bad neighborhood.” That’s exactly how it looks.

Moderate optimism is expected for the end of 2025, with projected revenue and profit growth. This is due to a product mix shift: traditional lagers are being replaced by non-alcoholic and flavored beers, which yield higher unit revenue. Inflation also boosts nominal revenue, though net profit effects will only be clear after year-end.

Poland’s role for Carlsberg

The Polish beer market holds a significant position in Carlsberg Group – both in volume and innovation. Poland is part of a Western European cluster including Scandinavia, France, Germany, and the UK. We are an important volume market, though beer category value remains lower than in Scandinavia or neighboring markets.

Poland also stands out for dynamism and innovation. Carlsberg Poland launches over a dozen new products annually, across flavored and non-alcoholic categories. Somersby, for instance, has revolutionized Poland’s flavored beverage market since 2012. Today, Poland is Somersby’s largest global market, ahead of Denmark and Australia. In practice, Poland serves as an “innovation incubator” for the Group.

Carlsberg Poland employs over 1,304 people across three breweries: Bosman, Kasztelan, and Okocim. With the market in decline, no capacity-expanding investments are planned. The main focus is environmental protection and sustainability—optimizing water use and energy efficiency. At Okocim, CO₂ recovery, energy-saving solutions, and renewable energy reduce emissions and operational costs.

2025 also saw ambitious social and cultural initiatives. To mark Okocim Brewery’s 180th anniversary, we plan the Jan Goetz Heritage Center in Brzesko, open to the local community, combining education, history, and brewing culture while activating the region.

Long-term, Poland remains a key market for Carlsberg in Europe. Our role as innovation leader – testing new categories and setting trends – enables the Group to anticipate and shape the beer category’s evolution.

Key Takeaways

1. Despite a weak year for the industry, Carlsberg Poland performed positively, increasing market share by roughly 1.4 percentage points to around 20.5% by value, driven mainly by non-alcoholic and flavored beers.
2. In the past 12 months, Poles spent nearly PLN 51.6 billion (EUR 10.8 billion) on alcohol, of which PLN 22.6 billion (EUR 4.7 billion) went to beer and cider, down 4.2% from 2024.
3. Last year was probably the worst for beer volume growth in post-war history.