The 1999 reform theoretically keeps the state’s pension bill under control. Projections show this spending category remaining broadly stable as a share of GDP. But this is an illusion. The very low projected level of future pension benefits will force changes – either to the retirement age or to contribution rates.
The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Poland has slowed markedly. In 2024, it fell to its lowest level in more than a decade. Is this merely the fading of the exceptionally favorable impulses that followed the pandemic, or a sign of a deeper shift – one in which rising labor costs and stagnation in European industry are beginning to curb investors’ willingness to place capital in Poland?
“Poland’s economic growth remains exceptionally strong. But the budget deficit is far too high for an economy performing this well,” says Geoff Gottlieb, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, summing up the Fund’s recently concluded mission to Poland. He argues that continued convergence with Western Europe will depend on deeper integration and more uniform rules across EU markets.
Recent data confirm that Poland’s economy is firmly in recovery mode. Retail sales are rising strongly, industry is pulling out of its slump – helped by renewed investment – and there are early signs of improvement in construction. All this comes alongside a sharp drop in inflation and a corresponding decline in interest rates.
For now, the macroeconomic backdrop looks relatively calm, and a decline in interest rates to around 3.5% appears plausible. A move towards 3–3.25% is not unimaginable if inflation settles near 2%. Yet risks remain. Some are familiar - rising commodity prices, a weakening złoty - while others are harder to handicap, such as the potential end of the war in Ukraine.
The European Commission (EC) has published its latest macroeconomic forecast (the autumn forecast) covering the period through 2027. Here are some of the key findings.
Preliminary data from Poland Statistics (GUS) shows that inflation in Poland stood at 2.8% year-on-year in October – just below the market expectation of 2.9%. On a month-to-month basis, prices increased by a modest 0.1%.
Poland’s economy is showing its fastest growth since the post-COVID rebound, according to preliminary data released by Statistics Poland (GUS). In the third quarter of 2025, real (unadjusted) GDP increased by 3.7% year-on-year, up from 3.3% in the previous quarter. This marks the strongest growth rate since mid-2022 – a period driven by pandemic recovery and bolstered migration, particularly the arrival of refugees from Ukraine, which boosted labor supply.
Real wages have grown rapidly over the past two years, enabling households to significantly increase both consumption and savings. This trend is particularly evident in sales data for durable goods. Next year, however, households will face a dilemma: continue to increase consumption or prioritize savings?
Marek Skawiński 
Michał Kulbacki 
