This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
“One could get the impression that we are working more and earning less. This stems from multiple factors, including inflation, high energy costs, tax instability, and a series of new levies imposed on entrepreneurs. Under these conditions, it is no longer possible to run a restaurant spontaneously, as was possible in the past,” says Jacek Czauderna, restaurateur and president of the National Council of Gastronomy and Catering.
In 2025, the number of gastronomic establishments rose by a few percent compared with nearly 102,000 reported by Statistics Poland (GUS) at the end of 2024. In larger cities, the market is highly saturated, which translates into mounting competitive pressure and high business turnover.
Challenges for the gastronomy sector
Companies in the sector continue to report labor shortages, particularly of chefs and waitstaff, and the situation is not expected to improve quickly. Running a profitable business remains a challenge amid growing competition from ready-made meals and hot snacks offered by supermarkets and gas stations. Lower-income consumers tend to favor fast-food chains, quick-service restaurants, budget bars, and small dining outlets, which boosts revenue for these establishments and drives the creation of new ones.
The dietary catering segment is also gaining popularity. Its market in Poland is currently estimated at nearly PLN 4 billion (around EUR 860 million). Catering is attracting interest not only from residents of large cities but also from smaller towns and rural areas, which now account for roughly 40 percent of the market, says Karolina Sędzimir, expert at the Economic Analysis Department of PKO Bank Polski.
According to forecasts, 2025 is expected to see the Polish gastronomy sector grow by several percent, with similar growth anticipated in the coming years.
“We expect this trend to be supported by favorable economic prospects and higher real incomes, enabling continued growth in consumer spending. Cultural shifts are also likely to lead to slightly more frequent dining outside the home than in the past. This will be facilitated by increased social mobility and the intensifying pace of urban life. The expanding and evolving range of gastronomic offerings can attract new customers and encourage existing ones to visit more often. Additionally, the sector will benefit from the projected further development of domestic tourism and the rising number of foreign tourists visiting Poland,” adds Karolina Sędzimir.
According to Mariusz Dziwulski, an analyst at PKO Bank Polski, cost pressures for HoReCa companies could ease in 2026, partly due to a slowdown in wage growth.
“This will result primarily from a significantly lower increase in the minimum wage from 2026, set at 3 percent – the smallest rise since 2005. Another factor is food prices. We forecast that by the end of the first half of 2026, inflation in the food basket will gradually decline to below 2 percent, driven by changes in the prices of agricultural commodities. Annual price growth in agriculture slowed noticeably at the end of 2025, and many products – such as grains, pork, fats, as well as fruits and vegetables – are cheaper than a year ago, partly due to high supply. Over the course of the year, energy carriers will also continue to exert a disinflationary effect on costs. Price pressures in the HoReCa sector will ease, while solid real wage growth for consumers – supported, among other factors, by low inflation – could positively affect demand for services in this sector,” adds Dziwulski.
Expert's perspective
Catering to Generation Z
The sector is also benefiting from stabilizing inflation, particularly in food products, while the economic situation of Poles is improving rapidly enough that consumers are increasingly taking advantage of the wide range of gastronomic offerings.
Generation Z is playing an increasingly important role in the market. Today, this group is the fastest-growing segment of consumers in Poland. The challenge for the entire industry is to meet their tastes – young people with their own worldviews, who are beginning to set the pace of consumption.
Post-pandemic recovery
Jacek Czauderna, restaurateur and president of the National Council of Gastronomy and Catering, believes that 2025 can be seen as the year when the gastronomy sector is genuinely beginning to recover from the pandemic and the economic upheavals it has faced in recent years.
“This is a period of making up for losses, but also a moment of very pronounced market differentiation. Gastronomy operates very differently in large cities and tourist regions than in smaller towns or venues without natural foot traffic. These differences will deepen, and restaurateurs must be aware of them when planning the development of their businesses. In recent years, there has been growing recognition among restaurateurs that running a gastronomic enterprise requires a professional approach. A good idea or attractive location is no longer enough. Training, attention to service quality, consistent menus, culinary calendars, and maintaining high standards of taste are all essential. Society today is more demanding, travels more, and has direct comparisons with international gastronomy. Customers are informed and increasingly make decisions based on online reviews. A single negative review can effectively deter future guests, leaving no room for chance or declining quality,” says Mr. Czauderna.
HoReCa market value and profitability challenges
The HoReCa market in Poland was estimated at around PLN 38 billion (EUR 8.2 billion) in 2024 and is expected to grow by roughly 8 percent in the coming years. However, this growth does not directly translate into higher profits.
“One could get the impression that we are working more while earning less. This results from multiple factors, including inflation, high energy costs, rising product prices, tax instability, and successive burdens imposed on entrepreneurs. Under these conditions, it is no longer possible to run a restaurant spontaneously, as was feasible in the past. Skillful cost accounting, financial management, and deliberate investment decisions have become essential. Many restaurateurs still fail to recognize the importance of financial control, which in practice generates additional problems and intensifies the challenges of running a business,” adds Jacek Czauderna.
He believes that gastronomy remains an attractive sector – but only for those willing to invest in developing their team’s skills, both in the kitchen and in front-of-house service.
“Promotional engagement is also essential: participating in culinary competitions, trade fairs, and actively seeking inspiration domestically and abroad. A restaurateur who treats their venue as a serious, long-term business today must operate far beyond the four walls of their establishment,” Mr. Czauderna emphasizes.
Good to know
HoReCa ends 2025 with PLN 470 million (EUR 101m) in debt
Despite sustained consumer interest, HoReCa is closing 2025 with significant financial burdens. According to the National Debt Register (KRD), the sector’s outstanding liabilities now total PLN 470 million (EUR 101 million), up PLN 91 million (EUR 19.5 million) from the previous year. This rise in debt is not due to a loss of customers. As the MADE FOR Restaurant 2025 report – produced by the organizers of the nationwide gastronomic conference – reveals, half of consumers say they visit restaurants just as often as they did a year ago.
The pattern is similar for takeout orders: Poles are not abandoning dining outside the home. The challenge lies in reconciling rising costs with guest expectations. Some 72 percent of customers cite prices as the main barrier to more frequent visits, limiting restaurateurs’ and hoteliers’ ability to raise rates. Meanwhile, operating costs continue to climb: energy bills are higher, food and service prices are rising, and labor costs are increasing.
Data from the Statistics Poland (GUS) show that only 17 percent of companies report facing no barriers to conducting business. The most commonly cited challenge is high employment costs, affecting 75 percent of firms. Although business conditions in accommodation and gastronomy have improved somewhat – 14.1 percent of firms reported an improvement – nearly as many, 13.4 percent, reported a deterioration. Forecasts for the coming months are slightly more optimistic, with entrepreneurs anticipating modest employment growth alongside a larger-than-expected rise in prices.
The total value of overdue liabilities now stands at PLN 470 million (EUR 101 million), an increase of PLN 91 million (EUR 19.5 million) compared with last year. The average debt per company is PLN 30,800 (EUR 6,600), up from PLN 26,400 (EUR 5,700) previously. The number of obligations rose by 22 percent, from 90,400 to nearly 109,900, while the number of debtors increased by over 900 firms.
“In 2026, simply filling the dining room will no longer be a measure of success for HoReCa. Even a full restaurant cannot guarantee profitability, as rising costs of energy, labor, and products can erode margins, deepening debt, which already totals PLN 470 million. The MADE FOR Restaurant 2025 report shows that consumers are highly price-sensitive: 72 percent cite inflation as a barrier to more frequent visits. Restaurateurs cannot indefinitely pass costs onto customers. They must seek savings where guests do not notice – through technology. Competitive advantage will go to those investing in energy-efficient appliances to reduce electricity use, online reservation systems – which 78 percent of guests consider the most useful technology – and AI tools to analyze the profitability of every dish in real time. This is no longer a matter of trend, but a condition for maintaining financial liquidity,” says Sandra Czerwińska, expert at Rzetelna Firma, a certification company.
The largest portion of the sector’s debt comes from restaurants, accounting for nearly 70 percent of all HoReCa arrears. Their liabilities exceed PLN 324.5 million (EUR 69.7 million), with the average debtor owing over PLN 29,500 (EUR 6,300). Next are hoteliers and accommodation providers, with PLN 74.3 million (EUR 15.9 million) in debt, followed by catering companies at PLN 70.3 million (EUR 15.1 million).
Direction: Automation
One of the key development trends in Polish gastronomy is process automation.
“This applies to table reservations, orders, guest communication, as well as marketing and online presence. These processes must be simplified and automated, because without such solutions, businesses risk losing competitiveness. Automation is becoming less a competitive advantage and more a condition for survival in the market. At the same time, the sector is facing a serious labor shortage, a phenomenon that intensified after the pandemic and is expected to persist in the coming years. In response, gastronomy will increasingly turn to semi-prepared products, centralized production, and solutions that reduce labor intensity in kitchen operations. This is not about lowering quality, but about adapting the work model to a market reality in which there simply aren’t enough hands available,” explains Jacek Czauderna.
According to the expert, in the years ahead, the development of restaurant-branded product lines could also become increasingly important. These include ready-to-heat meals, sauces, seasonings, and regional products recommended by chefs. This is a natural extension of gastronomic operations, allowing businesses to diversify revenue streams and cater to guests who want to take a piece of the culinary experience home.
Gastronomy vs. regulation
At the same time, the sector operates under conditions of significant legislative uncertainty. Frequent regulatory changes, new tax interpretations, additional fees, and local government rules make running a business increasingly difficult.
“Often, there is a lack of genuine dialogue between entrepreneurs and public administration, and social consultations are largely formalities. Top-down regulations that fail to account for the specifics of individual establishments create chaos and a sense of instability. Gastronomy is overwhelmingly composed of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, which play a vital role in the economy. Weakening this part of the market, withholding support, and imposing excessive burdens could marginalize local gastronomy and strengthen the position of large corporate chains. In the long run, this would impoverish the culinary offer and reduce the diversity that is currently a key strength of Polish gastronomy,” adds Jacek Czauderna.
A central demand of the industry remains the simplification of the tax system, a reduction of VAT rates in gastronomy from 23 to 8 percent, and the creation of more transparent, uniform rules for gastronomic services.
“Clear regulations and stable operating conditions would allow restaurateurs to plan development, ease price pressures, and focus on quality and the guest experience. Gastronomy is, to a large extent, a service industry, and its future growth requires policymakers to understand this specificity. In summary, the future of the gastronomy sector depends on professionalization, automation, industry integration, and conscious management of finances and teams. Without collective action and dialogue with public authorities, the sector will continue to operate under uncertainty. At the same time, restaurateurs who treat these challenges as an impetus for change have a real chance for stable growth in the coming years,” concludes Mr. Czauderna.
Key Takeaways
- One of the key development trends in Polish gastronomy is process automation. This includes table reservations, orders, guest communication, as well as marketing and online presence. These processes must be simplified and automated, as the absence of such solutions threatens competitiveness. Automation is becoming less a competitive advantage and more a condition for survival in the market.
- In 2025, the number of gastronomic establishments increased by several percent compared with nearly 102,000 reported by the Statistics Poland (GUS) at the end of 2024.
- The HoReCa market in Poland was estimated at around PLN 38 billion (EUR 8.2 billion) in 2024 and is expected to grow by roughly 8 percent in the coming years. However, this growth does not directly translate into higher profits. According to the National Debt Register (KRD), the sector’s outstanding liabilities now total PLN 470 million (EUR 101 million), up PLN 91 million (EUR 19.5 million) from the previous year. This rise in debt is not due to a loss of customers. The challenge lies in reconciling rising costs with guest expectations.