This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Weeks of mounting tensions have reached their climax. At midnight on Thursday, the deadline expired for members of Rozwój Plus to comply with an ultimatum requiring them to choose between the association and the party. The "rebels" opted to remain with the association, prompting Jarosław Kaczyński to expel Mateusz Morawiecki and his allies from Law and Justice (PiS).
The outcome had become inevitable. At noon on Friday, Law and Justice leader Jarosław Kaczyński announced that "around thirty-some lawmakers have resigned their membership in Law and Justice."
Final ultimatum and a battle of narratives
"Everyone knew exactly what they were being asked to sign, and everyone also understood the consequences of refusing to sign the declaration. They made the decision they made. We certainly do not want to part on bad terms, let alone with any stronger negative emotions. This is simply how things turned out," Jarosław Kaczyński said.
The Law and Justice (PiS) leader stressed that allowing the party to split was never an option. He also announced that the party's Political Committee is expected to formally accept the resignations of lawmakers affiliated with the Rozwój Plus (Development Plus) Association at its meeting next Tuesday.
"Everyone knew what signing meant and what refusing to sign meant. You could say it is now all over. One procedural formality still has to be completed, because we always act in accordance with the party's statutes," Kaczyński said.
Kaczyński's account was challenged by Piotr Müller, a Member of the European Parliament and a member of the Rozwój Plus Association. According to Müller, none of the association's members has resigned from Law and Justice.
Kaczyński also argued that the party's Political Committee had already made significant concessions.
"We made far-reaching concessions. Among other things, we dropped our demand that Mateusz Morawiecki's association be dissolved. All we asked was that its activities be suspended until the election. That proposal was rejected," Kaczyński said.
This narrative had already been disputed by Mateusz Morawiecki. Appearing on the morning program of broadcaster wPolsce24, the former prime minister argued that the real objective was to eliminate the associations altogether.
"When someone talks about 'suspending' an association for 15 months until the election – and even for another month afterward, because that was the ultimatum being presented – that, in reality, amounts to dissolving the associations," Morawiecki said.
Morawiecki: PiS has become “Jacek Sasin’s Solidarity Poland”
Earlier that morning, the former prime minister was still insisting that he had no intention of leaving either the Rozwój Plus Association or Law and Justice (PiS).
"I suggest that we should work together under a single conductor, whom we already have – the party leader – and in this way reach voters through different channels. Let me stress once again, using the same language, playing the same tune, beating the drum to the same rhythm, we will not reach new voters," Mateusz Morawiecki argued.
He also openly criticized politicians from the rival faction, including Jacek Sasin, who took part in Kaczyński and Morawiecki's last-ditch meeting on Thursday. Morawiecki singled out Sasin as a symbol of what he sees as the wrong direction taken by the party.
"A small group of schemers said: 'Mr. Chairman, but this could have something to do with funding, let’s issue such an ultimatum.' And they unleashed hell. (…) Our party has become one big version of Jacek Sasin’s Solidarity Poland," the former prime minister said sarcastically.
Sasin, for his part, did not leave Morawiecki’s accusations unanswered. In a post on X, he criticized Morawiecki for his separatist ambitions and even reminded him of his brief stint as an adviser in Donald Tusk’s previous government more than a decade ago.
A new balance of power in the Sejm
Given that former party colleagues are now publicly trading insults, it suggests that there will certainly be little affection during the first weeks after the political “divorce.”
Immediately after Kaczyński’s statement, a battle over the narrative surrounding the collapse of PiS erupted. Kaczyński spoke of a group of lawmakers resigning from party membership, while Morawiecki’s allies had claimed even before his announcement that they were about to be expelled from the party.
The first consequences of the split will be painful for Law and Justice (PiS).
Mateusz Morawiecki is believed to have the backing of 40 members of the Sejm, three Members of the European Parliament and one senator.
Among Morawiecki’s supporters are Mirosława Stachowiak-Różecka, Olga Semeniuk-Patkowska, Łukasz Schreiber, Janusz Cieszyński, Paweł Jabłoński, Monika Pawłowska, Krzysztof Szczucki, Marcin Horała, Agnieszka Ścigaj and Marek Jakubiak (who is not a member of the PiS parliamentary caucus).
The association founded by Mateusz Morawiecki is large enough to form its own parliamentary group in the Sejm. More importantly, it would become the third-largest parliamentary group. This means that the “Rozwój Plus” faction would receive its allocated office space in the Sejm and could even secure the position of deputy speaker of the Sejm.
PiS has been without a deputy speaker for three years because it wanted to nominate former Sejm speaker Elżbieta Witek for the position, but she has been unacceptable to the governing majority. The situation could be different in the case of Morawiecki’s parliamentary group, which Elżbieta Witek would not join.
Another symbolic consequence of the split is that, after the departure of a group of around 30 lawmakers, the PiS caucus will lose its status as the largest parliamentary group. As a result, the Civic Coalition (KO), rather than Law and Justice as is currently the case, will have the greatest amount of speaking time during Sejm debates.
No details yet on the immediate future of Mateusz Morawiecki’s movement
At an afternoon press conference in the Sejm, Mateusz Morawiecki said that a “group of schemers” had been active within PiS, accusing them of a tendency to plot, maneuver and engage in internal “party games.”
The former prime minister accused these “schemers” of seeking to push Morawiecki’s political camp out of Law and Justice (PiS). He also said he was surprised by the day’s developments.
“Unfortunately, certain gravediggers of agreement who emerged among these schemers managed to weave together loosely connected threads so effectively that we have reached the situation we are in today. That is why we are surprised. We need to discuss all plans for the future, because just a few hours ago I reached out to the party leader, personally handed him a letter I had written myself, in which we very clearly guaranteed a division of responsibilities, but also the fact that we would not engage in party activities,” Morawiecki said.
The head of Rozwój Plus also did not reveal details about the possible creation of a new parliamentary group or the establishment of a political party. His remarks reflected disappointment with decisions taken by PiS headquarters on Nowogrodzka Street in Warsaw. At the same time, he called on his former party colleagues to reconsider their actions.
“We will appeal these decisions politically,” Morawiecki announced.
Although during several minutes of Friday’s press conference Morawiecki attacked Donald Tusk’s government as forcefully as he criticized the decisions coming from PiS HQ, his remarks directed at Jarosław Kaczyński are likely to carry far greater political significance.
Morawiecki faces a ceiling in the polls…
The political future now raises a host of new questions. We have already written extensively about the potential consequences of a split on the right, and this is an issue we will almost certainly return to repeatedly in the coming months. A major shift on the political chessboard is taking place just a year before the election, and its consequences could significantly reshape the entire party system.
What is clear is that further fragmentation of the right benefits the governing camp, which is already facing a crisis. Donald Tusk – burdened by the hospital scandal, weak approval ratings for his coalition partners, deteriorating public sentiment and a lack of a clear vision for the future – has received an unexpected gift from both PiS leadership and Mateusz Morawiecki.
In one of our recent articles, we analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of Morawiecki’s association. In an interview with XYZ, Łukasz Pawłowski, president of the Polish National Research Group (Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza), referred to the results of a recent poll examining support for Rozwój Plus.
“When we asked respondents in a poll about a party led by Morawiecki, such an initiative received around 5% support. Crucially, 80% of this group consisted of current Law and Justice voters. This means that, in the longer term, a loyalty mechanism could come into play, with some of these voters simply returning to their former political camp,” Łukasz Pawłowski said.
…and campaign challenges
Other challenges facing the new political formation will include the need to build organizational structures from scratch, as well as financing a campaign without access to funds from the National Electoral Commission (PKW).
“At the same time, an apparent obstacle – the withdrawal of some voters from active participation in politics – could turn out to be an opportunity. In public debate, we often limit ourselves to analyzing voter flows between parties, forgetting that equally important, if not more crucial, is the movement of voters between participation in elections and abstention. Such a party could mobilize disillusioned voters who today plan to stay at home and persuade them to return to the ballot box,” political scientist Dr Mateusz Zaremba of SWPS University said in an interview with XYZ.
The first opportunity for the new movement to present itself to voters will be the so-called “Morawiecki barbecue”, which is already known to be, in reality, a founding congress for Rozwój Plus as an independent political entity. It is expected that the event will reveal more substantive policy declarations aimed at distinguishing Mateusz Morawiecki’s movement from Law and Justice (PiS).
The image likely to be remembered from Friday afternoon will be a single scene from the Sejm. While the broadcast from PiS headquarters on Nowogrodzka Street was being watched, Adam Gomoła, a lawmaker from Poland 2050, and Krzysztof Kwiatkowski, a senator from the Civic Coalition (KO), listened to Jarosław Kaczyński’s speech while eating… popcorn.
For now, it is the governing camp – together with Confederation – that is the biggest beneficiary of the major split within Law and Justice.
Key Takeaways
- The departure of around 35 lawmakers from the Rozwój Plus Association has stripped Law and Justice (PiS) of its status as the largest parliamentary group in the Sejm, handing that position to the Civic Coalition (KO). The new faction gains the right to establish the third-largest parliamentary group and appoint its own deputy speaker of the Sejm.
- The immediate trigger for the split was an ultimatum from PiS leadership requiring the suspension of Mateusz Morawiecki’s association’s activities. The rejection of these conditions sparked a fierce battle over the political narrative and personal accusations, making a swift reconciliation on the right unlikely for now.
- The former prime minister’s new political formation is launching with support of around 5%, drawing primarily from existing PiS voters. Its main challenges will be building local organizational structures and operating without access to state budget subsidies.