Right-wing realignment: PiS battles its rivals - and itself

Przemysław Czarnek wants aid to Ukraine suspended. Jarosław Kaczyński publicly rebukes him, yet at the same time reaches an agreement with a recent ally of Grzegorz Braun. Law and Justice (PiS) is also tightening discipline within its own parliamentary ranks. The main beneficiary of all this is Sławomir Mentzen. What does the latest episode of infighting on Poland's right reveal?

One might have expected the hospital scandal and the Ukrainian president's controversial policy toward Poland to provide the opposition – especially its largest party, Law and Justice (PiS) – with an ideal political opening. Yet once again, Jarosław Kaczyński's party has proved unable to capitalize on the governing camp's missteps, instead tripping over its own internal divisions.

Personal rivalries and sharply conflicting ideas about how to appeal to voters have once again moved to the forefront of Poland's right-wing political scene.

The latest round of disputes was triggered primarily by PiS's candidate for prime minister, Przemysław Czarnek. Speaking on Telewizja Republika on Monday, Czarnek delivered arguably the most hardline assessment yet from a PiS politician on the future of support for Ukraine.

"This needs to be said plainly: a Ukraine built on anti-values that glorify the Bandera ideology, which is equivalent to German Nazism, has no place in Europe, and Europe's capitals must acknowledge that. We must use our position within the European Union to force the EU to stop financing, in any way, Ukraine's armament and reconstruction until Ukraine embarks on a path based on values that respect humanity," Czarnek said on Telewizja Republika.

Kaczyński reprimands Czarnek

Such a harsh, openly anti-Ukrainian and controversial statement by Przemysław Czarnek did not escape the attention of commentators – but, above all, it caught the attention of the party headquarters on Nowogrodzka Street.

Since Przemysław Czarnek was anointed PiS’s candidate for prime minister, Jarosław Kaczyński has for the first time publicly called him to account, doing so in a post on the X platform.

“Law and Justice has always stood by the position that military assistance, including aid provided by the European Union, is absolutely necessary for Ukraine. This is a matter of fundamental importance from the perspective of Poland’s national interest and our security. The issue of Mr. Przemysław Czarnek’s remarks will be addressed by the party leadership,” Kaczyński wrote on social media on Tuesday.

Following their exchange of remarks online, Kaczyński and Czarnek were reportedly due to meet in person to clarify the party’s position.

It does not appear, however, that Przemysław Czarnek has softened his stance. In Wednesday’s program on Wirtualna Polska, Czarnek said he had no intention of withdrawing his comments.

“There is no contradiction between what party chairman Jarosław Kaczyński wrote and what I have been saying for many years, including in recent days (...). In his post on the X platform, Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński wrote exactly what we have been saying for years and what the late Lech Kaczyński also said. It is in Poland’s interest that Putin does not win this war, because a Putin emboldened by victory would pose a mortal threat to Poland,” Przemysław Czarnek argued in response to the criticism.

Prof. Plecka: “an attempt to play both sides”

Prof. Danuta Plecka, head of the Department of Political Systems at the University of Gdańsk, believes that such sharp rhetoric is a response to the rising poll numbers of both Confederation parties.

“We are constantly seeing an attempt to win back or reclaim the most radical, far-right voters who have moved away from Law and Justice toward Braun. On the other hand, this is an attempt to play both sides. Law and Justice is presenting itself as a party that is signaling to the far-right electorate, while at the same time recognizing that it may also win support from voters with right-wing views who are more centrist. The goal is to attract as many voters as possible,” the professor says.

In her view, PiS’s sharp shift to the right is also driven by another phenomenon.

“We are also witnessing what is known as the Overton window – the process of politicians and political groups introducing certain ideas and values into the public debate. This is primarily done to find out whether the views and ideas they represent will translate into voter support. One phenomenon does not rule out the other. I think the two overlap perfectly here, and that is precisely what is happening within Law and Justice. It is not nearly as complicated a strategy as it might appear at first glance,” analyzes the political scientist from the University of Gdańsk.

The rhetoric of Mateusz Morawiecki serves as evidence supporting Prof. Danuta Plecka’s argument. On the same day, the former prime minister, speaking on Polsat news channel, indirectly acknowledged that he was uncomfortable with Czarnek’s narrative.

Mateusz Morawiecki plays his own game

“Some of our colleagues are indeed, one might say, trying to outflank Grzegorz Braun from the right,” Morawiecki said.

However, when directly asked about Czarnek’s remarks, the former prime minister acknowledged that the more important issue was the controversy surrounding the South Hospital scandal.

“Today, we are playing on a difficult pitch. We are facing an opponent that has brought out all its weapons and is trying to cover up the biggest scandal [the South Hospital scandal – ed.], an exceptionally corrupt and disgusting affair,” the former prime minister said on the Graffiti program.

It is worth recalling that Mateusz Morawiecki and his “Rozwój Plus” (“Development Plus”) association are organizing an event titled “Rozwój Plus Wy” (“Development Plus You”) on July 31. According to media reports, politicians critical of the former prime minister have begun to believe that this represents another step in Morawiecki’s gradual detachment from the party’s core.

Morawiecki, however, argues that the goal is to broaden the voter base rather than narrow it.

“But this is also how I understand the different roles we have. As the British say, ‘horses for courses’ – there are different horses for different races. And we are trying to make the association [Rozwój Plus – ed.] precisely such a laboratory of ideas: on the one hand, in a picnic-like atmosphere, but on the other, full of different concepts and a burst of programmatic creativity,” Morawiecki said on Polsat’s Graffiti program.

Mentzen mocks as Confederation gains ground

The internal disputes within PiS are being skillfully exploited by Confederation. Sławomir Mentzen has repeatedly taken aim at Przemysław Czarnek. He seized another opportunity to weaken his rival on the right immediately after Jarosław Kaczyński issued his statement.

Although Confederation still trails in opinion polls, it is clearly benefiting from a stronger momentum than PiS. In a recent CBOS poll, the gap between Confederation and PiS narrowed to just four percentage points. Meanwhile, in Wednesday’s United Surveys poll for WP portal, PiS’s lead stood at around seven percentage points – though just a month earlier, the advantage was 12 percentage points.

Party leader Jarosław Kaczyński would of course never admit it publicly, but he recognizes that if the “Czarnek effect” is having any impact, it is working in the opposite direction. On Wednesday afternoon, Kaczyński decided to launch a counteroffensive aimed at shifting the conversation away from the debate over Czarnek’s increasingly radical stance.

Kaczyński’s unexpected alliance with Marek Woch

Kaczyński appeared at PiS headquarters alongside Marek Woch of the Nonpartisan Local Government Representatives (Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy). Woch is a third-tier politician. In last year’s presidential election, he came last, securing just 19,000 votes nationwide.

Since then, Woch has made headlines twice. In the autumn, he announced cooperation with Grzegorz Braun’s party as part of a… Senate pact. A few weeks ago, he announced a signature-gathering campaign for a referendum initiative. Among its proposals was, among other things, a pledge to abolish the National Health Fund (NFZ).

“We have reached an agreement with Mr. Marek Woch on cooperating in order to jointly present right-wing formations in the Senate,” Jarosław Kaczyński announced.

The details of the cooperation remain unknown. However, it raises a number of questions. How does PiS intend to strengthen its cooperation with a politician who has never won an election, has a limited political base, and enjoys minimal public recognition?

Prof. Słomka: alliance with Woch is also an ideological signal

“Kaczyński’s alliance with Marek Woch is somewhat folkloric, because his support in the presidential election was, after all, marginal. However, it can be interpreted in several ways. First, Jarosław Kaczyński is sending a signal that Law and Justice has taken the initiative in building a strong bloc of Poland’s right ahead of the upcoming elections. So far, we have only heard about a Senate alliance, but this may be just the first step before further arrangements concerning joint electoral lists for the Sejm,” says Prof. Tomasz Słomka of the University of Warsaw.

The political scientist also points to other factors pushing PiS toward building broader alliances on the right.

“The second factor is polling. Wednesday’s United Surveys survey shows that the combined support for both Confederation parties – more than 25% - exceeds support for Law and Justice, which stands at 23%. I think this is a response to the need to demonstrate that PiS can still be the largest and strongest political force on the Polish right, and that Confederation parties do not have the same ability to absorb other political groups and encourage them to cooperate,” Prof. Tomasz Słomka notes.

At the same time, he highlights the ideological backdrop of Kaczyński’s alliance with Woch.

“The third issue is a very clear ideological and political signal. PiS is showing that the party does not intend to move toward the center and does not have a vision of a moderate model of political competition. Instead, it will continue competing with Mentzen and Bosak’s Confederation – and perhaps especially with the Confederation of the Polish Crown – for radical voters. The only signal that could suggest Law and Justice wants to distinguish itself as a moderate force is its response to statements concerning Ukraine. On this issue, Jarosław Kaczyński sent a very rational signal – he showed that he understands the nature of this war, who the aggressor is and who the victim is. However, I do not know whether this is a sign that PiS intends to play the role of a moderate Christian democratic or conservative force in the next elections,” the University of Warsaw professor reflects.

Wednesday’s ultimatum for Associations

Morawiecki has long sought to play the role of a moderate politician closer to Christian democracy. His “Rozwój Plus” association has more often placed economic and pro-development themes at the center of its agenda than anti-Ukrainian or anti-EU messaging. Critics of Morawiecki have for a long time accused him of positioning himself for an eventual departure from the party.

The decision taken by PiS leadership on Wednesday evening to ban associations operating within the party has only intensified speculation about the former prime minister’s political future. The party’s political leadership issued a one-week ultimatum to the heads of party-affiliated associations, ordering them to end their activities. Jacek Sasin almost immediately announced the dissolution of his recently established “Po Pierwsze Polska” (“Poland First”) association.

Morawiecki also responded quickly to the decision of the PiS Political Committee Presidium (Prezydium Komitetu Politycznego PiS). In a post on the X platform, the former prime minister wrote that:

“Poles today expect serious answers to the most important challenges: demographics, the collapse of public finances, security, housing, energy prices, the future of the Polish economy, and Poland’s place in the world. They do not need more shallow slogans, sterile disputes, and politics based solely on mutual attacks.”

According to Newsweek, Kaczyński’s decision had been kept secret. At a meeting of the party leadership, the PiS chairman reportedly said that he “would rather have a smaller parliamentary club than have no party at all.”

PiS tries, but Confederation parties gain

The pace of developments within PiS is doing little to calm voters’ concerns. In Prof. Danuta Plecka’s assessment, Law and Justice’s chaotic messaging so far has failed to translate into gains in opinion polls.

“This strategy is not working. Just look at the fact that the more radical the positions taken by Law and Justice politicians become, the more support Grzegorz Braun gains – and PiS itself loses support. On the other hand, Morawiecki himself is perhaps not the best example in this situation. I am still waiting for him to announce the creation of a new party,” comments the political scientist from the University of Gdańsk.

What next for PiS? Expert: the former Prime Minister still holds his cards

Does the current turmoil on the right signal a political earthquake in the autumn and the replacement of Czarnek as PiS’s candidate for prime minister?

“Czarnek has been placed in this role because it is simply more convenient to present him this way. He has been given a degree of institutional gravitas – this resembles the Westminster model, in which he serves as the head of a shadow cabinet. In reality, he is Kaczyński’s high-profile representative, tasked with fighting for radical voters, which Czarnek proves every day. A serious candidate for prime minister should engage in balanced discussions with various groups about how to build a right-wing alliance. Czarnek, meanwhile, spends his time competing with the Confederation parties over who can make the most radical bid. Therefore – putting it rather bluntly – he is more of a ‘herder’ of voters than a serious candidate to lead the government,” says Prof. Tomasz Słomka.

Wednesday’s decision by the party leadership has also fueled further questions about Mateusz Morawiecki’s political future. In Prof. Tomasz Słomka’s view, the situation may still be about testing the political landscape ahead of a possible breakaway movement led by the former prime minister.

“I think the cards are still on the table, and the question of whether he will opt for institutional independence remains open. Perhaps these are the final weeks of assessing how much he can still secure for himself and his political circle within PiS. This issue will be decided in the autumn. If he were to choose a separate political and organizational path, he would need a year to present himself to the public and establish himself in voters’ minds. I think September, October, or November at the latest are the moments when Morawiecki could announce a new initiative – perhaps in cooperation with other groups,” the political scientist concludes.

Key Takeaways

1. Law and Justice is attempting to achieve two goals at once: attract far-right voters while retaining support among more centrist-minded conservatives. The party is pursuing this strategy through deliberately differentiated messaging from its leading politicians. According to experts, Przemysław Czarnek’s radical rhetoric is intended to test public sentiment and compete with the increasingly influential Confederation movement.
2. Clear divisions and preparations for potential structural reshuffling are emerging within Poland’s largest opposition party. Experts view Mateusz Morawiecki’s initiatives as an attempt to build his own political capital ahead of a possible split in the autumn. The former prime minister is focusing on an economic message and has clearly distanced himself from extreme anti-Ukrainian rhetoric.
3. The party leadership is looking for new ways to reverse unfavorable polling trends by forging unconventional alliances. Jarosław Kaczyński’s cooperation with the little-known politician Marek Woch signals a willingness to integrate smaller right-wing groups ahead of future election campaigns. Prof. Tomasz Słomka, however, considers this strategy rather chaotic and highly risky from an image perspective.