SAFE phase two: expanding the arsenal, quietly

Some PLN 120 billion (EUR 27.8 billion) will flow to companies and production facilities under the SAFE instrument. This means that Poland still has around PLN 60 billion (EUR 13.9 billion) left to use. What else can the armed forces expect? The list, somewhat surprisingly, is fairly long.

The SAFE instrument has already delivered tangible benefits for Poland. Out of PLN 180 billion (EUR 41.7 billion) in EU loans and low-interest financing, around PLN 120 billion (EUR 27.8 billion) has already been spent. In most cases, this has taken the form of refinancing previously signed contracts.

This amount will finance, among other things, the purchase of Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles, vehicles for the Wisła and Narew air defense systems, personal equipment for soldiers, and additional K9 self-propelled howitzers. It also includes further Rosomak armored personnel carriers in command-vehicle and medical evacuation configurations. Ammunition and drone systems are also part of the package. SAFE will likewise finance hydrographic vessels, with an estimated cost of around PLN 1.5 billion (EUR 347 million).

This marks the end of the first phase of SAFE spending. It is referred to as single procurement, meaning “individual” contracts placed exclusively for the needs of a given country’s armed forces. What comes next, however, is joint procurement – common procurement, involving contracts signed by at least two countries. And this is where things get interesting.

What awaits the military and industry?

Among the orders expected under the common procurement framework, large contracts are also on the horizon. However, they will not match the scale of those seen in the first phase. It is worth remembering that refinancing enables certain budget reallocations. If a contract for military equipment is financed through SAFE, funds previously set aside in the Ministry of National Defense (MON) budget can be redirected to other priorities.

The armed forces are likely to receive another substantial batch of Grot assault rifles. It is also possible that part of this order will be delivered to one of the Baltic states, thereby fulfilling the logic of joint procurement.

Another expected purchase concerns unmanned systems of various types and sizes. These range from FlyEye reconnaissance drones, through Warmate loitering munitions, to larger strike modules such as Gladius. In this segment, the beneficiary will of course be the WB Group of Ożarów Mazowiecki, possibly in cooperation with Ukraine. Radar fire-control systems such as Sajna may also appear on the list, alongside additional satellite systems. The latter could be acquired by Poland jointly with Greece, for example. According to XYZ sources, the Baobab-K vehicle for scatterable mine deployment, produced by Huta Stalowa Wola, is also attracting some international interest.

MRTT… and more? Poland needs aerial refueling aircraft

Will tankers appear on the procurement list? It is likely. They are a critical capability for improving the military’s operational reach and effectiveness. Such aircraft could significantly enhance the capabilities of the Air Force. MRTT (multi-role tanker-transport) aircraft are used both for aerial refueling and cargo transport. Poland needs them to reduce the frequency with which military aircraft must land during combat missions, such as patrol flights. With MRTTs in service, aircraft would be able to refuel in mid-air, which would also have a positive impact on fleet endurance. The likely procurement would be made directly from Spain, which is expected to incorporate additional aircraft of this type into its own fleet.

– In my view, we may be seeing a return to the concept of acquiring A400M transport aircraft. Why? Because it is the only ready-made product we could realistically purchase that would be deliverable within the SAFE timeframe, i.e. by 2030 – says defense journalist Dawid Kamizela in a conversation with XYZ.

But Airbus is not the only bidder. Poland is also being courted by Brazil’s Embraer with its KC-390 Millennium.

MESKO also stands to benefit from upcoming orders. The manufacturer of portable Piorun air-defense systems can expect increased production. The system has been selling well across Europe. Magdalena Sobkowiak, the government’s plenipotentiary for SAFE, has even spoken about the need to establish two additional Piorun production lines, given interest from Norway, Sweden, and Greece.

The second key aviation-related purchase concerns training helicopters. This is also a necessity, particularly given the introduction of Apache helicopters into the armed forces. Ninety-six aircraft translate into at least 192 pilots and weapons operators. Assuming the need for at least a primary and reserve crew, this comes to 384 personnel. Training helicopters are therefore essential for maintaining the operational readiness of the Army Aviation Brigade.

According to a well-informed source, helicopters are indeed on the list. However, the planned purchase is for 12 units, while the Armament Agency has defined a requirement for 24 aircraft. Which version will ultimately prevail remains unclear – provided the government has enough determination… and time.

Helicopter drama. Who will win, who will lose, and who will even enter the race?

The helicopter procurement issue is generating the strongest emotions – and not without reason. There are two main bidders.

Italy’s Leonardo, as we hear from informed sources, has offered Poland a military training helicopter that is… a model no one in Europe actually wants to buy. Why the Italians proposed this particular baseline configuration remains unclear. They have, however, become significantly more active in the field of search and rescue helicopters, which are also in short supply in Poland.

Airbus, by contrast, offers a product that fits Poland’s requirements – but it is heavily backlogged. Its helicopter is among the most popular in Europe, selected by Germany, France, Belgium, and Czechia. These are large-scale orders, involving dozens of aircraft. Poland’s planned purchase of 12 or even 24 units is small in comparison and would effectively be pushed to the back of the queue. As a result, Airbus might simply be unable to deliver a configuration meeting Poland’s specifications by 2030.

The helicopter drama is further complicated by trade unions at the second helicopter facility located in Poland, owned by the Americans (PZL Mielec), which are lobbying for the purchase of their own products. The issue is that the S-70i Black Hawk produced in Mielec are “bare-bones” aircraft. Integrating the required additional equipment onto such a platform significantly increases costs – dramatically so. For this reason, the Armament Agency (AU) has already once closed a procurement procedure for the American manufacturer, and its reasoning is hard to dispute.

Another issue is that the Black Hawk is a multi-role helicopter. It is heavy and, in no way, suitable for the role of a training helicopter. The introduction of new aircraft continues to be delayed.

Organizational chaos. What will make it onto the procurement list?

There is, in fact, chaos even around the SAFE procurement list itself. The Ministry of National Defense (MON) provides one set of figures, the Armament Agency another, while still different information can be heard from the Chancellery of the Prime Minister. Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk responds to questions about progress in a brief manner.

– Progressively. Negotiations are ongoing. We have completed one round, now we are moving on to the next – Tomczyk tells XYZ.

He adds that these efforts have been underway for some time.

– The sooner these contracts are concluded, the better. That is why I say these are ongoing processes. They must be completed by mid-2030 – the deputy defense minister notes.

Neither the military nor politicians are willing to speak openly about what will be included in the joint procurement program. The reason is straightforward: negotiations are still underway – with both manufacturers and potential partner countries.

Ship programs? Possibly – but quietly

Very little is known about the naval programs. There are, for instance, reports of additional Kormoran II mine countermeasure vessels. Officially, the head of Remontowa Shipbuilding declines to comment. It is nonetheless understood that the modern, heavily equipped Kormoran-class ships built by Remontowa are attracting interest from other countries, including Baltic states.

The fate of Ratownik remains equally unclear. The first unit is being built for the Polish Navy, but there have been signals of interest from Sweden – and possibly Norway as well. Provided that an amendment to the contract is signed, such a scenario is not out of the question.

A few weeks ago, representatives from Sweden visited PGZ Naval Shipyard. They observed the construction of the future Ratownik and exchanged views. The Swedes would likely bring more of their own solutions and proposals.

– I would call it mutual sizing-up. But for now, there are no concrete outcomes – we are told on the Polish side.

The shipbuilding sector has high expectations for SAFE. So does the aviation industry. New aircraft and helicopters will be meaningless without the broader ecosystem: pilots, ground crews, and maintenance systems. For now, all that remains is to wait for the next contracts.

Expert's perspective

Minister Konrad Gołota: Piorun is a safe bet

When discussing the second phase of the SAFE program, several points must be kept in mind. First, we are only a few days past the signing of the first phase. This was a major challenge, which we have successfully completed. Second, not all countries have yet signed agreements with the European Commission; some are still modifying and adjusting their plans.

A third issue in the context of joint procurement concerns what is attracting interest from other countries that could potentially purchase equipment from Poland. Here, we are primarily talking about the San system – or more broadly, anti-drone systems – as well as scatterable mine-laying vehicles such as Baobab. Naturally, another “safe bet” will be the Piorun launcher, which has built a strong reputation in Ukraine.

But that is not all. We are also referring to trucks produced at the Jelcz facilities, as well as drones. In the latter case, these would be purchases from the private sector. A contract for the Ratownik vessel is also under negotiation. We are likewise waiting for MRTT aircraft, but what matters here is which country becomes the lead nation in a given program. That lead role will determine the procedures and actions taken, which often differ from our own.

Konrad Gołota

Deputy Minister of State Assets

Key Takeaways

1. In the second round of the SAFE program, Polish shipyards may also stand to benefit. A particularly important role will be played by PGZ Naval Shipyard, which – together with the Szczecin-based “Wulkan” – is set to build the Ratownik vessel.
2. Another batch of Grot assault rifles can be expected for the armed forces. It is also possible that part of this order will go to one of the Baltic states. “Safe bets” such as the Piorun launcher will attract strong interest. The procurement list will include unmanned systems of various types and sizes – from FlyEye reconnaissance platforms, through Warmate loitering munitions, to larger strike modules such as Gladius. Another likely purchase concerns Sajna fire-control radar systems, as well as additional satellite systems. The latter could be acquired by Poland jointly with Greece. According to XYZ sources, the Baobab-K scatterable mine-laying vehicle produced by Huta Stalowa Wola is also enjoying some international interest.
3. Deputy Minister of State Assets Konrad Gołota suggests that the second phase of the SAFE program may also bring purchases of products not previously discussed.