This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers
Interactive chart The pace of wage growth was marginally faster than in May, when it stood at 5.8% year on year, and exceeded economists’ expectations of 5.5%.
It is worth noting, however, that these figures cover only companies employing at least 10 people. Across the economy as a whole, wage growth was probably somewhat weaker.
Looking at the broader trend, wage growth has been gradually slowing. The main reason is that employees made more frequent pay demands during 2024–2025, seeking to recover the purchasing power lost as high inflation in 2023 eroded the real value of their earnings.
Consumer price inflation in June came in exactly at the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target of 2.5%, below what most economists had expected. The surprise was driven by the partial continuation of the Lower Fuel Prices (CPN) program and by food price deflation. As inflationary pressures ease, so do employees’ wage expectations. In any case, higher inflation typically feeds through into wage demands only with a lag.
A third factor behind the moderating pace of wage growth is the relatively modest increase in both the statutory minimum wage and public-sector salaries in 2026, which were each raised by 3%.
Although the enterprise-sector wage indicator covers only private companies employing more than nine people, meaning these increases have little direct impact on the published figures, their indirect influence is significant.
XYZ perspective
After adjusting for inflation, real wages increased by 3.3% year on year in June, marking a strong gain and an improvement from 2.6% in May. Later this week, fresh data will show whether stronger real wage growth translated into faster retail sales. Rising real incomes support household consumption, one of the key drivers of Poland’s GDP growth.
The outlook, however, may become more challenging in the coming months. One reason is the continuing U.S.–Iran conflict, which has pushed up global oil prices. Since the beginning of July, crude oil futures have risen from around USD 70 to USD 80 per barrel. That increase is already feeding through to prices at the pump, while the Polish government has discontinued the Lower Fuel Prices (CPN) program. As a result, July’s inflation reading is expected to be higher, implying slower growth in real wages. June may therefore prove to have been an exceptionally strong month for Poland’s economic indicators – but, in many respects, it will resemble looking in the rear-view mirror.