The biggest trends in Poland’s foreign trade

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

Statistics Poland has released fresh figures on Poland’s foreign trade after the first quarter of 2026. They offer a good opportunity to look at the key forces shaping the country’s trade flows.

Exports edge higher

Poland’s goods exports in the first quarter of 2026, measured in euro terms, rose by 2.2% year on year. Judged against the country’s historical export growth rates, that is a modest result. But the broader international backdrop has been exceptionally demanding. The euro zone’s main economies continue to grow sluggishly. Donald Trump’s tariffs have curbed European exports to the United States. On top of that came the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February. Against this backdrop, the result does not look quite so weak.

Exports increased in seven of Poland’s ten most important markets. Growth to Germany, the country’s largest trading partner, was marginal at just 0.1%. More pronounced increases were recorded in exports to Ukraine (up 13.2% year on year), Czechia (6.5%), the Netherlands (5.6%) and France (5.5%). Exports to the United States, by contrast, fell sharply, down as much as 11% year on year. This is largely the result of American companies rushing to replenish inventories last year ahead of the planned introduction of tariffs, creating a very high statistical base.

Looking beyond the top ten trading partners, exports also expanded across most destinations in the second and third tiers. Particularly notable were double-digit increases in exports to China (16.8% year on year) and Switzerland (15.3%). Exports to Ireland also rose strongly, although this is likely distorted by profit-shifting activities by American corporations. Polish exports are also performing well in smaller European markets such as Greece, Croatia and Estonia.

Imports hit by the commodity shock

Growth in goods imports lagged behind exports, rising by 0.9% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Among Poland’s top ten suppliers, the standout figures were the sharp increases in imports from the United States (up 10.2%), Denmark (11.2%) and Norway (37.6%). Poland imports energy commodities from all three countries, chiefly natural gas and crude oil.

The higher value of imports reflects the sharp rise in energy prices following the attack on Iran by Israel and the United States, and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. To some extent, it also stems from higher import volumes aimed at offsetting disrupted supplies from the Persian Gulf. In the first quarter, imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 17.5% year on year.

There was also a steep decline in imports from South Korea, down almost 50%. That, in turn, reflects a high comparison base linked to military equipment deliveries last year.

China’s grip is loosening

The growth in imports of goods from China has slowed

One trend that deserves closer attention is the slowdown in imports from China. In the first quarter of 2026, imports rose by 5.7% year on year, compared with growth of as much as 21.5% a year earlier. Statistical effects partly explain the weaker pace. But there may also be more fundamental forces at work. The expansion of Chinese goods on the Polish market may no longer be proceeding as rapidly as it did just a few quarters ago.

The so-called second China shock – the influx of technologically advanced, high-quality and relatively inexpensive Chinese goods – is becoming an increasing challenge for European companies. The impact is now spreading across a growing number of industries, including sectors traditionally dominated by Western Europe, such as automotive manufacturing and machinery. Polish firms are also feeling the competitive pressure from imported goods in these industries. From that perspective, the slower pace of Chinese expansion could be interpreted as a positive development.

That said, import growth in these particular sectors remains strong. The value of cars, ships and aircraft imported from China rose by 48.3% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Imports of machinery and mechanical equipment increased by 9.4%.

It remains to be seen whether the slower growth in imports from China is merely a temporary pause or the beginning of a more lasting shift.

Poland maintains balanced foreign trade

Data from Statistics Poland show that Poland continues to maintain balance in its foreign trade. Between January and March, the value of goods exports reached EUR 93.3bn (PLN 400bn), while imports totaled EUR 93.6bn (PLN 401bn). The trade deficit therefore amounted to just EUR 0.3bn (PLN 1.3bn).

Fresh figures from the National Bank of Poland also show that the country’s broader current account remains close to balance. The current account captures all transactions between the economy and the rest of the world. In the first quarter it posted a small deficit of EUR 0.9bn (PLN 3.9bn), compared with EUR 1bn (PLN 4.3bn) a year earlier. That is an encouraging signal, suggesting that the economy does not need to rely heavily on foreign borrowing.

China’s export push is slowing, while the trade balance remains stable. Imports from China rose by 5.7%, markedly slower than a year earlier, when growth reached 21.5%. This may point to a slowdown in China’s expansion on the Polish market.
Exports continue to grow despite a difficult backdrop. Poland’s goods exports rose by 2.2% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, a respectable result given weak economic conditions in the euro zone and the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Export growth was particularly strong to Ukraine, Czechia and France.
Imports shaped by soaring energy commodity prices. Import growth reached 0.9% year on year, with the sharp increase in oil and gas prices following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz acting as the main driver. Poland increased purchases of energy commodities from countries including Norway, Denmark and the United States, offsetting disrupted supplies from the Persian Gulf.